Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Kansas Projected Matchup Analysis

Kansas Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = 1.3
  Chance of beating: 56.5%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 17.6
  Chance of beating: 97.2%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 23.3
  Chance of beating: 99.42%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = 7.3
  Chance of beating: 78.07%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = 9.8
  Chance of beating: 84.05%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = 7
  Chance of beating: 77.25%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = 12.8
  Chance of beating: 90.6%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = 5.7
  Chance of beating: 73.53%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = 13.9
  Chance of beating: 92.8%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = 5.4
  Chance of beating: 72.55%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = 14.2
  Chance of beating: 93.3%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = 9.1
  Chance of beating: 82.48%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = 10
  Chance of beating: 84.5%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = 7
  Chance of beating: 77.25%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = 10.3
  Chance of beating: 85.17%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = 5
  Chance of beating: 71.25%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 16.2
  Chance of beating: 96.15%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 14.8
  Chance of beating: 94.2%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = 9.8
  Chance of beating: 84.05%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = 9.2
  Chance of beating: 82.7%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = 6.3
  Chance of beating: 75.33%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = 10.4
  Chance of beating: 85.4%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = 9.7
  Chance of beating: 83.83%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = 13.4
  Chance of beating: 91.8%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = 3.6
  Chance of beating: 66.4%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = 12.2
  Chance of beating: 89.4%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = 6.4
  Chance of beating: 75.6%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = 8.4
  Chance of beating: 80.9%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = 8.1
  Chance of beating: 80.23%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = 6.6
  Chance of beating: 76.15%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.93%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 15.1
  Chance of beating: 94.65%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = 1
  Chance of beating: 55%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 17.9
  Chance of beating: 97.43%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = 8.9
  Chance of beating: 82.03%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = 8.6
  Chance of beating: 81.35%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = 6.9
  Chance of beating: 76.98%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = 10.6
  Chance of beating: 85.85%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = 6.9
  Chance of beating: 76.98%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = 11.3
  Chance of beating: 87.43%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = 5.1
  Chance of beating: 71.58%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 14.3
  Chance of beating: 93.45%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = 6.3
  Chance of beating: 75.33%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = 11.6
  Chance of beating: 88.1%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = 9.7
  Chance of beating: 83.83%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = 9.8
  Chance of beating: 84.05%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = 4.5
  Chance of beating: 69.63%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 17.2
  Chance of beating: 96.9%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = 1.3
  Chance of beating: 56.5%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 24.6
  Chance of beating: 99.73%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = 8.3
  Chance of beating: 80.68%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = 7.5
  Chance of beating: 78.63%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = 6.2
  Chance of beating: 75.05%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = 9.4
  Chance of beating: 83.15%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = 7.6
  Chance of beating: 78.9%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 14.5
  Chance of beating: 93.75%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = 6.4
  Chance of beating: 75.6%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = 13.1
  Chance of beating: 91.2%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = 7.7
  Chance of beating: 79.18%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = 8.9
  Chance of beating: 82.03%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = 7.1
  Chance of beating: 77.53%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = 7.3
  Chance of beating: 78.07%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = 2.4
  Chance of beating: 61.6%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 15.1
  Chance of beating: 94.65%