Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Duke Projected Matchup Analysis

Duke Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -1.1
  Chance of beating: 44.5%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 15.2
  Chance of beating: 94.8%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 20.9
  Chance of beating: 98.73%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.92%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = 7.4
  Chance of beating: 78.35%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = 4.6
  Chance of beating: 69.95%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = 10.4
  Chance of beating: 85.4%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = 3.3
  Chance of beating: 65.2%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = 11.5
  Chance of beating: 87.88%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = 3
  Chance of beating: 64%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = 11.8
  Chance of beating: 88.55%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = 6.7
  Chance of beating: 76.43%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = 7.6
  Chance of beating: 78.9%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = 4.6
  Chance of beating: 69.95%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = 7.9
  Chance of beating: 79.72%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = 2.6
  Chance of beating: 62.4%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 13.8
  Chance of beating: 92.6%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -2.4
  Chance of beating: 38.4%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 12.4
  Chance of beating: 89.8%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = 7.4
  Chance of beating: 78.35%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = 6.8
  Chance of beating: 76.7%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = 3.9
  Chance of beating: 67.6%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = 8
  Chance of beating: 80%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = 7.3
  Chance of beating: 78.07%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = 11
  Chance of beating: 86.75%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = 1.2
  Chance of beating: 56%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = 9.8
  Chance of beating: 84.05%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = 6
  Chance of beating: 74.5%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = 5.7
  Chance of beating: 73.53%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = 4.2
  Chance of beating: 68.65%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = 2.5
  Chance of beating: 62%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 12.7
  Chance of beating: 90.4%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -1.4
  Chance of beating: 43%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 15.5
  Chance of beating: 95.25%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = 6.5
  Chance of beating: 75.88%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = 6.2
  Chance of beating: 75.05%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = 4.5
  Chance of beating: 69.63%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = 8.2
  Chance of beating: 80.45%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = 4.5
  Chance of beating: 69.63%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = 8.9
  Chance of beating: 82.02%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = 2.7
  Chance of beating: 62.8%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 11.9
  Chance of beating: 88.77%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = 3.9
  Chance of beating: 67.6%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = 9.2
  Chance of beating: 82.7%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = 7.3
  Chance of beating: 78.07%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = 7.4
  Chance of beating: 78.35%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = 2.1
  Chance of beating: 60.4%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 14.8
  Chance of beating: 94.2%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -1.1
  Chance of beating: 44.5%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 22.2
  Chance of beating: 99.07%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = 5.9
  Chance of beating: 74.17%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = 5.1
  Chance of beating: 71.57%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = 3.8
  Chance of beating: 67.2%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = 7
  Chance of beating: 77.25%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = 5.2
  Chance of beating: 71.9%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 12.1
  Chance of beating: 89.2%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = 10.7
  Chance of beating: 86.08%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = 5.3
  Chance of beating: 72.22%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = 6.5
  Chance of beating: 75.88%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = 4.7
  Chance of beating: 70.28%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = 4.9
  Chance of beating: 70.92%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 12.7
  Chance of beating: 90.4%