Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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CS Fullerton Projected Matchup Analysis

CS Fullerton Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -10.9
  Chance of beating: 13.47%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 5.4
  Chance of beating: 72.55%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 11.1
  Chance of beating: 86.97%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = -4.9
  Chance of beating: 29.07%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = -2.4
  Chance of beating: 38.4%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = -5.2
  Chance of beating: 28.1%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = 0.6
  Chance of beating: 53%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = -6.5
  Chance of beating: 24.13%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = 1.7
  Chance of beating: 58.5%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = -6.8
  Chance of beating: 23.3%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = 2
  Chance of beating: 60%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = -3.1
  Chance of beating: 35.6%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = -2.2
  Chance of beating: 39.2%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = -5.2
  Chance of beating: 28.1%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = -1.9
  Chance of beating: 40.5%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = -7.2
  Chance of beating: 22.2%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 4
  Chance of beating: 68%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -12.2
  Chance of beating: 10.6%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 2.6
  Chance of beating: 62.4%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = -2.4
  Chance of beating: 38.4%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = -3
  Chance of beating: 36%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = -5.9
  Chance of beating: 25.82%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = -1.8
  Chance of beating: 41%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = -2.5
  Chance of beating: 38%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = 1.2
  Chance of beating: 56%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -8.6
  Chance of beating: 18.65%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = -5.8
  Chance of beating: 26.15%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = -3.8
  Chance of beating: 32.8%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = -4.1
  Chance of beating: 31.68%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = -5.6
  Chance of beating: 26.8%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = -7.3
  Chance of beating: 21.93%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 2.9
  Chance of beating: 63.6%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -11.2
  Chance of beating: 12.8%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 5.7
  Chance of beating: 73.53%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = -3.3
  Chance of beating: 34.8%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = -3.6
  Chance of beating: 33.6%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = -5.3
  Chance of beating: 27.78%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = -1.6
  Chance of beating: 42%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = -5.3
  Chance of beating: 27.78%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = -0.9
  Chance of beating: 45.5%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = -7.1
  Chance of beating: 22.48%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 2.1
  Chance of beating: 60.4%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = -5.9
  Chance of beating: 25.82%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = -0.6
  Chance of beating: 47%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = -2.5
  Chance of beating: 38%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = -2.4
  Chance of beating: 38.4%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = -7.7
  Chance of beating: 20.82%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 5
  Chance of beating: 71.25%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -10.9
  Chance of beating: 13.47%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 12.4
  Chance of beating: 89.8%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = -3.9
  Chance of beating: 32.4%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = -4.7
  Chance of beating: 29.72%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = -6
  Chance of beating: 25.5%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = -2.8
  Chance of beating: 36.8%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = -4.6
  Chance of beating: 30.05%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 2.3
  Chance of beating: 61.2%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = -5.8
  Chance of beating: 26.15%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = -4.5
  Chance of beating: 30.37%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = -3.3
  Chance of beating: 34.8%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = -5.1
  Chance of beating: 28.43%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = -4.9
  Chance of beating: 29.07%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = -9.8
  Chance of beating: 15.95%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 2.9
  Chance of beating: 63.6%