Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Boise St Projected Matchup Analysis

Boise St Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -12.9
  Chance of beating: 9.2%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 3.4
  Chance of beating: 65.6%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 9.1
  Chance of beating: 82.47%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = -6.9
  Chance of beating: 23.02%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = -4.4
  Chance of beating: 30.7%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = -7.2
  Chance of beating: 22.2%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = -1.4
  Chance of beating: 43%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = -8.5
  Chance of beating: 18.88%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = -0.3
  Chance of beating: 48.5%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = -8.8
  Chance of beating: 18.2%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = -5.1
  Chance of beating: 28.43%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = -4.2
  Chance of beating: 31.35%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = -7.2
  Chance of beating: 22.2%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = -3.9
  Chance of beating: 32.4%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = -9.2
  Chance of beating: 17.3%   


vs. 15 American
  Expected margin = 2
  Chance of beating: 60%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -14.2
  Chance of beating: 6.7%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = 0.6
  Chance of beating: 53%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = -4.4
  Chance of beating: 30.7%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = -5
  Chance of beating: 28.75%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = -7.9
  Chance of beating: 20.27%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = -3.8
  Chance of beating: 32.8%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = -4.5
  Chance of beating: 30.37%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = -0.8
  Chance of beating: 46%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -10.6
  Chance of beating: 14.15%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = -2
  Chance of beating: 40%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = -7.8
  Chance of beating: 20.55%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = -5.8
  Chance of beating: 26.15%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = -6.1
  Chance of beating: 25.23%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = -7.6
  Chance of beating: 21.1%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = -9.3
  Chance of beating: 17.08%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -13.2
  Chance of beating: 8.6%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 3.7
  Chance of beating: 66.8%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = -5.3
  Chance of beating: 27.78%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = -5.6
  Chance of beating: 26.8%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = -7.3
  Chance of beating: 21.93%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = -3.6
  Chance of beating: 33.6%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = -7.3
  Chance of beating: 21.93%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = -2.9
  Chance of beating: 36.4%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = -9.1
  Chance of beating: 17.53%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = 0.1
  Chance of beating: 50.5%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = -7.9
  Chance of beating: 20.27%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = -2.6
  Chance of beating: 37.6%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = -4.5
  Chance of beating: 30.37%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = -4.4
  Chance of beating: 30.7%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = -9.7
  Chance of beating: 16.17%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 3
  Chance of beating: 64%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -12.9
  Chance of beating: 9.2%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 10.4
  Chance of beating: 85.4%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = -5.9
  Chance of beating: 25.82%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = -6.7
  Chance of beating: 23.57%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = -8
  Chance of beating: 20%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = -4.8
  Chance of beating: 29.4%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = -6.6
  Chance of beating: 23.85%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = 0.3
  Chance of beating: 51.5%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = -7.8
  Chance of beating: 20.55%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = -1.1
  Chance of beating: 44.5%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = -6.5
  Chance of beating: 24.13%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = -5.3
  Chance of beating: 27.78%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = -7.1
  Chance of beating: 22.48%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = -6.9
  Chance of beating: 23.02%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = -11.8
  Chance of beating: 11.45%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = 0.9
  Chance of beating: 54.5%