Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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American Projected Matchup Analysis

American Power Ratings
vs. 1 North Carolina
  Expected margin = -14.9
  Chance of beating: 5.65%   


vs. 16 Mt St Marys
  Expected margin = 1.4
  Chance of beating: 57%   


vs. 16 Coppin St
  Expected margin = 7.1
  Chance of beating: 77.52%   


vs. 8 Indiana
  Expected margin = -8.9
  Chance of beating: 17.97%   


vs. 9 Arkansas
  Expected margin = -6.4
  Chance of beating: 24.4%   


vs. 5 Notre Dame
  Expected margin = -9.2
  Chance of beating: 17.3%   


vs. 12 George Mason
  Expected margin = -3.4
  Chance of beating: 34.4%   


vs. 4 Washington St
  Expected margin = -10.5
  Chance of beating: 14.38%   


vs. 13 Winthrop
  Expected margin = -2.3
  Chance of beating: 38.8%   


vs. 3 Louisville
  Expected margin = -10.8
  Chance of beating: 13.7%   


vs. 14 Boise St
  Expected margin = -2
  Chance of beating: 40%   


vs. 6 Oklahoma
  Expected margin = -7.1
  Chance of beating: 22.48%   


vs. 11 St Josephs
  Expected margin = -6.2
  Chance of beating: 24.95%   


vs. 7 Butler
  Expected margin = -9.2
  Chance of beating: 17.3%   


vs. 10 South Alabama
  Expected margin = -5.9
  Chance of beating: 25.82%   


vs. 2 Tennessee
  Expected margin = -11.2
  Chance of beating: 12.8%   


vs. 1 Kansas
  Expected margin = -16.2
  Chance of beating: 3.85%   


vs. 16 Portland St
  Expected margin = -1.4
  Chance of beating: 43%   


vs. 8 UNLV
  Expected margin = -6.4
  Chance of beating: 24.4%   


vs. 9 Kent
  Expected margin = -7
  Chance of beating: 22.75%   


vs. 5 Clemson
  Expected margin = -9.9
  Chance of beating: 15.72%   


vs. 12 Villanova
  Expected margin = -5.8
  Chance of beating: 26.15%   


vs. 4 Vanderbilt
  Expected margin = -6.5
  Chance of beating: 24.13%   


vs. 13 Siena
  Expected margin = -2.8
  Chance of beating: 36.8%   


vs. 3 Wisconsin
  Expected margin = -12.6
  Chance of beating: 9.8%   


vs. 14 CS Fullerton
  Expected margin = -4
  Chance of beating: 32%   


vs. 6 USC
  Expected margin = -9.8
  Chance of beating: 15.95%   


vs. 11 Kansas St
  Expected margin = -7.8
  Chance of beating: 20.55%   


vs. 7 Gonzaga
  Expected margin = -8.1
  Chance of beating: 19.78%   


vs. 10 Davidson
  Expected margin = -9.6
  Chance of beating: 16.4%   


vs. 2 Georgetown
  Expected margin = -11.3
  Chance of beating: 12.58%   


vs. 15 Umbc
  Expected margin = -1.1
  Chance of beating: 44.5%   


vs. 1 Memphis
  Expected margin = -15.2
  Chance of beating: 5.2%   


vs. 16 Texas Arlington
  Expected margin = 1.7
  Chance of beating: 58.5%   


vs. 8 Mississippi St
  Expected margin = -7.3
  Chance of beating: 21.93%   


vs. 9 Oregon
  Expected margin = -7.6
  Chance of beating: 21.1%   


vs. 5 Michigan St
  Expected margin = -9.3
  Chance of beating: 17.08%   


vs. 12 Temple
  Expected margin = -5.6
  Chance of beating: 26.8%   


vs. 4 Pittsburgh
  Expected margin = -9.3
  Chance of beating: 17.08%   


vs. 13 Oral Roberts
  Expected margin = -4.9
  Chance of beating: 29.07%   


vs. 3 Stanford
  Expected margin = -11.1
  Chance of beating: 13.03%   


vs. 14 Cornell
  Expected margin = -1.9
  Chance of beating: 40.5%   


vs. 6 Marquette
  Expected margin = -9.9
  Chance of beating: 15.72%   


vs. 11 Kentucky
  Expected margin = -4.6
  Chance of beating: 30.05%   


vs. 7 Miami Fla
  Expected margin = -6.5
  Chance of beating: 24.13%   


vs. 10 St Marys CA
  Expected margin = -6.4
  Chance of beating: 24.4%   


vs. 2 Texas
  Expected margin = -11.7
  Chance of beating: 11.67%   


vs. 15 Austin Peay
  Expected margin = 1
  Chance of beating: 55%   


vs. 1 UCLA
  Expected margin = -14.9
  Chance of beating: 5.65%   


vs. 16 Miss Valley St
  Expected margin = 8.4
  Chance of beating: 80.9%   


vs. 8 BYU
  Expected margin = -7.9
  Chance of beating: 20.27%   


vs. 9 Texas A&M
  Expected margin = -8.7
  Chance of beating: 18.42%   


vs. 5 Drake
  Expected margin = -10
  Chance of beating: 15.5%   


vs. 12 Western KY
  Expected margin = -6.8
  Chance of beating: 23.3%   


vs. 4 Connecticut
  Expected margin = -8.6
  Chance of beating: 18.65%   


vs. 13 San Diego
  Expected margin = -1.7
  Chance of beating: 41.5%   


vs. 3 Xavier
  Expected margin = -9.8
  Chance of beating: 15.95%   


vs. 14 Georgia
  Expected margin = -3.1
  Chance of beating: 35.6%   


vs. 6 Purdue
  Expected margin = -8.5
  Chance of beating: 18.88%   


vs. 11 Baylor
  Expected margin = -7.3
  Chance of beating: 21.93%   


vs. 7 West Virginia
  Expected margin = -9.1
  Chance of beating: 17.53%   


vs. 10 Arizona
  Expected margin = -8.9
  Chance of beating: 17.97%   


vs. 2 Duke
  Expected margin = -13.8
  Chance of beating: 7.4%   


vs. 15 Belmont
  Expected margin = -1.1
  Chance of beating: 44.5%