NCAA College Basketball Odds Movement

Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 13 4-9-0 30.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 17 9-8-0 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3 2-1-0 66.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 14 5-9-0 35.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 16 7-9-0 43.8%
Total 63 27-36-0 42.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 30 19-11-0 63.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 76 40-35-1 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 30 14-15-1 48.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 35 15-18-2 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 73 34-38-1 47.2%
Total 244 122-117-5 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 527 260-251-16 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 909 444-448-17 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 500 258-232-10 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 385 182-196-7 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 369 173-188-8 47.9%
Total 2690 1317-1315-58 50.0%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 338 169-165-4 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 644 321-307-16 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 350 163-183-4 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 281 127-150-4 45.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 244 113-124-7 47.7%
Total 1857 893-929-35 49.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 307 156-144-7 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 796 400-377-19 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 472 221-242-9 47.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 385 185-188-12 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 527 225-293-9 43.4%
Total 2487 1187-1244-56 48.8%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 103 51-52-0 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 60 30-26-4 53.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 42 22-20-0 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 48 26-22-0 54.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 78 43-34-1 55.8%
Total 331 172-154-5 52.8%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 57 33-22-2 60.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 17 6-11-0 35.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 6 3-3-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 9 5-4-0 55.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 5 4-1-0 80.0%
Total 94 51-41-2 55.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.