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NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

Recent Articles:
Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)
Wall St. Journal Competition Results
Strategies on filling out that NCAA Tournament Bracket — SmartStats and BracketBrains
NCAA Basketball Coaches Gone Wild (1 of 2)
Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (1 of 2)
2008 Conference Tournaments: Brackets & Odds
March Madness Performance: 2 Myths Dispelled
Spreading the Nerd Word
Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.
MT ST MARYS
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 19-15
Power Rating: 74.7
Ranking: 174

0-1v #1-25
0-2v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
5-9v #101-200
14-3v #201-341

Home Rankings (8-7): 70.0 (236)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
2-6v #101-200
6-1v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 4-368.9
Non-League Power Rankings: 4-471.5
Last Ten Rankings: 3-075.7

Away Rankings (10-7): 78.6 (114)
0-0v #1-25
0-2v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
3-3v #101-200
7-2v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 7-281.4
Non-League Power Rankings: 3-574.7
Last Ten Rankings: 4-185.5

Neutral Rankings (1-1): 79.9 (112)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
0-0v #101-200
1-0v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 0-074.7
Non-League Power Rankings: 1-176.6
Last Ten Rankings: 1-176.6

League Power Rankings (11-5): 76.3 (155)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
1-4v #101-200
10-1v #201-341
Home Rankings: 4-368.9
Away Rankings: 7-281.4
Neutral Rankings: 0-074.7
Last Ten Rankings: 4-183.9

Non-League Power Rankings (8-10): 73.5 (178)
0-1v #1-25
0-2v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
4-5v #101-200
4-2v #201-341
Home Rankings: 4-471.5
Away Rankings: 3-574.7
Neutral Rankings: 1-176.6
Last Ten Rankings: 4-179.9

Wins Power Rankings: 74.7 (174)
0-1v #1-25
0-2v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
5-9v #101-200
14-3v #201-341
Home Rankings: 8-768.8
Away Rankings: 10-779.6
Neutral Rankings: 1-183.6
Last Ten Rankings: 8-286.3

Predictive / Points Rankings: 74.8 (171)
0-1v #1-25
0-2v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
4-8v #101-200
15-4v #201-341
Home Rankings: 8-771.4
Away Rankings: 10-777.5
Neutral Rankings: 1-175.5
League Power Rankings: 11-576.5
Non-League Power Rankings: 8-1073.2
Last Ten Rankings: 8-281.1

Last Ten Rankings (8-2): 83.8 (58)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
1-1v #51-100
1-0v #101-200
6-0v #201-341
Home Rankings: 3-075.7
Away Rankings: 4-185.5
Neutral Rankings: 1-176.6
League Power Rankings: 4-183.9
Non-League Power Rankings: 4-179.9

Home Advantage: -5.1 (331)


Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0 (201)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1 (218)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.1 (235)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.2 (245)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.4 (247)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.7 (244)

Upward Stability: 3.2 (73)

Downward Stability: 3.6 (27)

RPI
RPI: 0.5 (150)
0-1v #1-25
0-1v #26-50
0-2v #51-100
8-9v #101-200
11-2v #201-341


RPI Home (8-7): 0.4 (221)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
1-0v #51-100
1-3v #101-200
6-4v #201-341


RPI Away (10-7): 0.5 (104)
0-0v #1-25
0-2v #26-50
1-2v #51-100
3-1v #101-200
6-2v #201-341


RPI Neutral (1-1): 0.5 (50)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
1-0v #101-200
0-0v #201-341


RPI League (11-5): 0.5 (139)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
2-4v #101-200
9-1v #201-341


RPI Non-League (8-10): 0.4 (161)
0-1v #1-25
0-1v #26-50
0-1v #51-100
5-5v #101-200
3-2v #201-341


RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4 (178)



GAMES
Date Site Score Opponent
11/10/2007Away L 62-77 vs. #171 Geo Washington
11/17/2007Home L 63-66 vs. #138 La Salle
11/24/2007Away L 73-85 vs. #209 James Madison
11/26/2007Home L 45-66 vs. #136 American
12/1/2007Home W 70-58 vs. #150 Loyola MD
12/3/2007Away W 62-58 vs. #198 Navy
12/6/2007Home W 73-55 vs. #221 Liu Brooklyn
12/8/2007Away W 60-59 vs. #213 Central Conn
12/15/2007Away W 66-59 vs. #330 Maine
12/18/2007Home W 64-59 vs. #121 Winthrop
12/21/2007Home L 72-76 vs. #194 Lafayette
12/28/2007Away L 73-81 vs. #45 Oregon
1/3/2008Away W 68-60 vs. #311 St Francis NY
1/5/2008Home L 62-65 vs. #302 Fair Dickinson
1/7/2008Away L 57-81 vs. #28 Oklahoma
1/10/2008Away L 59-70 vs. #223 Quinnipiac
1/16/2008Home W 56-44 vs. #324 St Francis PA
1/19/2008Home L 59-67 vs. #188 Sacred Heart
1/24/2008Away L 70-74 vs. #163 Wagner
1/26/2008Away W 80-66 vs. #221 Liu Brooklyn
1/31/2008Home W 97-60 vs. #311 St Francis NY
2/2/2008Home L 63-75 vs. #118 Robert Morris
2/7/2008Home L 75-83 vs. #163 Wagner
2/9/2008Away W 76-66 vs. #308 Monmouth NJ
2/14/2008Away W 78-61 vs. #302 Fair Dickinson
2/16/2008Home W 77-70 vs. #223 Quinnipiac
2/21/2008Away L 66-69 vs. #118 Robert Morris
2/23/2008Away W 72-61 vs. #324 St Francis PA
3/1/2008Home W 81-67 vs. #308 Monmouth NJ
3/6/2008Home W 80-70 vs. #223 Quinnipiac
3/9/2008Away W 83-65 vs. #118 Robert Morris
3/12/2008Away W 68-55 vs. #188 Sacred Heart
3/18/2008Neut W 69-60 vs. #268 Coppin St
3/21/2008Neut L 74-113 vs. #3 North Carolina

FUTURE GAMES
Date Site Win ProbabilityMargin Opponent
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