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NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

Recent Articles:
Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)
Wall St. Journal Competition Results
Strategies on filling out that NCAA Tournament Bracket — SmartStats and BracketBrains
NCAA Basketball Coaches Gone Wild (1 of 2)
Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (1 of 2)
2008 Conference Tournaments: Brackets & Odds
March Madness Performance: 2 Myths Dispelled
Spreading the Nerd Word
Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.
BUTLER
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 30-4
Power Rating: 89.2
Ranking: 14

0-2v #1-25
1-0v #26-50
11-2v #51-100
11-0v #101-200
7-0v #201-341

Home Rankings (14-1): 88.8 (22)
0-1v #1-25
1-0v #26-50
5-0v #51-100
6-0v #101-200
2-0v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 10-086.1
Non-League Power Rankings: 4-186.5
Last Ten Rankings: 6-184.2

Away Rankings (11-2): 88.0 (20)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
2-2v #51-100
4-0v #101-200
5-0v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 6-284.7
Non-League Power Rankings: 5-086.9
Last Ten Rankings: 1-088.0

Neutral Rankings (5-1): 91.8 (14)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
4-0v #51-100
1-0v #101-200
0-0v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 0-089.2
Non-League Power Rankings: 5-191.2
Last Ten Rankings: 1-191.3

League Power Rankings (16-2): 87.9 (20)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
3-2v #51-100
9-0v #101-200
4-0v #201-341
Home Rankings: 10-086.1
Away Rankings: 6-284.7
Neutral Rankings: 0-089.2
Last Ten Rankings: 7-086.5

Non-League Power Rankings (14-2): 90.4 (13)
0-2v #1-25
1-0v #26-50
8-0v #51-100
2-0v #101-200
3-0v #201-341
Home Rankings: 4-186.5
Away Rankings: 5-086.9
Neutral Rankings: 5-191.2
Last Ten Rankings: 1-286.8

Wins Power Rankings: 92.0 (14)
0-2v #1-25
1-0v #26-50
14-2v #51-100
8-0v #101-200
7-0v #201-341
Home Rankings: 14-191.2
Away Rankings: 11-291.3
Neutral Rankings: 5-194.4
Last Ten Rankings: 8-290.1

Predictive / Points Rankings: 85.6 (19)
0-2v #1-25
2-0v #26-50
10-1v #51-100
11-1v #101-200
7-0v #201-341
Home Rankings: 14-185.6
Away Rankings: 11-283.8
Neutral Rankings: 5-188.8
League Power Rankings: 16-284.2
Non-League Power Rankings: 14-286.9
Last Ten Rankings: 8-284.9

Last Ten Rankings (8-2): 87.8 (22)
0-1v #1-25
2-1v #26-50
4-0v #51-100
0-0v #101-200
2-0v #201-341
Home Rankings: 6-184.2
Away Rankings: 1-088.0
Neutral Rankings: 1-191.3
League Power Rankings: 7-086.5
Non-League Power Rankings: 1-286.8

Home Advantage: 3.2 (172)


Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0 (145)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1 (127)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3 (115)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.4 (106)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6 (94)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8 (55)

Upward Stability: 1.8 (332)

Downward Stability: 2.8 (199)

RPI
RPI: 0.6 (16)
0-2v #1-25
2-0v #26-50
10-2v #51-100
9-0v #101-200
9-0v #201-341


RPI Home (14-1): 0.6 (12)
0-0v #1-25
1-1v #26-50
5-0v #51-100
5-0v #101-200
3-0v #201-341


RPI Away (11-2): 0.5 (54)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
1-2v #51-100
4-0v #101-200
6-0v #201-341


RPI Neutral (5-1): 0.6 (16)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
4-0v #51-100
1-0v #101-200
0-0v #201-341


RPI League (16-2): 0.6 (30)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
3-2v #51-100
7-0v #101-200
6-0v #201-341


RPI Non-League (14-2): 0.6 (16)
1-1v #1-25
1-1v #26-50
6-0v #51-100
3-0v #101-200
3-0v #201-341


RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5 (102)



GAMES
Date Site Score Opponent
11/9/2007Away W 61-45 vs. #252 Ball St
11/14/2007Home W 76-48 vs. #119 Indiana St
11/17/2007Away W 60-47 vs. #207 Evansville
11/21/2007Neut W 79-65 vs. #157 Michigan
11/23/2007Neut W 84-78 vs. #53 Virginia Tech
11/24/2007Neut W 81-71 vs. #65 Texas Tech
12/1/2007Home W 65-46 vs. #30 Ohio St
12/6/2007Away W 53-46 vs. #232 Detroit
12/8/2007Away L 42-43 vs. #87 Wright St
12/15/2007Neut W 79-68 vs. #61 Florida St
12/19/2007Home W 83-64 vs. #79 Bradley
12/22/2007Away W 78-66 vs. #300 Fla Gulf Coast
12/28/2007Away W 57-55 vs. #63 Southern Ill
1/5/2008Home W 73-65 vs. #94 Valparaiso
1/7/2008Away W 66-55 vs. #179 Loyola Chi
1/10/2008Home W 74-65 vs. #140 Wisc Green Bay
1/12/2008Home W 72-56 vs. #154 Wisc Milwaukee
1/17/2008Away L 52-56 vs. #82 Cleveland St
1/19/2008Away W 78-69 vs. #211 Youngstown St
1/24/2008Home W 63-50 vs. #179 Loyola Chi
1/26/2008Home W 73-57 vs. #102 Illinois Chi
2/5/2008Away W 71-68 vs. #94 Valparaiso
2/9/2008Away W 62-57 vs. #140 Wisc Green Bay
2/12/2008Away W 83-75 vs. #154 Wisc Milwaukee
2/14/2008Home W 89-73 vs. #211 Youngstown St
2/16/2008Home W 51-46 vs. #82 Cleveland St
2/20/2008Away W 51-46 vs. #102 Illinois Chi
2/23/2008Home L 64-71 vs. #17 Drake
2/28/2008Home W 66-61 vs. #87 Wright St
3/1/2008Home W 65-31 vs. #232 Detroit
3/8/2008Home W 66-50 vs. #102 Illinois Chi
3/11/2008Home W 70-55 vs. #82 Cleveland St
3/21/2008Neut W 81-61 vs. #56 South Alabama
3/23/2008Neut L 71-76 vs. #7 Tennessee

FUTURE GAMES
Date Site Win ProbabilityMargin Opponent
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