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NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

Recent Articles:
Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)
Wall St. Journal Competition Results
Strategies on filling out that NCAA Tournament Bracket — SmartStats and BracketBrains
NCAA Basketball Coaches Gone Wild (1 of 2)
Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (1 of 2)
2008 Conference Tournaments: Brackets & Odds
March Madness Performance: 2 Myths Dispelled
Spreading the Nerd Word
Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.
AUSTIN PEAY
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 24-11
Power Rating: 76.4
Ranking: 147

0-2v #1-25
0-1v #26-50
0-2v #51-100
4-1v #101-200
20-5v #201-341

Home Rankings (13-1): 78.9 (113)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-1v #51-100
2-0v #101-200
11-0v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 11-072.5
Non-League Power Rankings: 2-178.8
Last Ten Rankings: 4-078.3

Away Rankings (8-8): 74.7 (166)
0-1v #1-25
0-1v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
2-1v #101-200
6-5v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 6-472.8
Non-League Power Rankings: 2-479.6
Last Ten Rankings: 2-176.3

Neutral Rankings (3-2): 77.1 (145)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-1v #51-100
0-0v #101-200
3-0v #201-341
League Power Rankings: 2-076.5
Non-League Power Rankings: 1-271.5
Last Ten Rankings: 2-176.0

League Power Rankings (19-4): 75.4 (167)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
0-0v #101-200
19-4v #201-341
Home Rankings: 11-072.5
Away Rankings: 6-472.8
Neutral Rankings: 2-076.5
Last Ten Rankings: 7-176.4

Non-League Power Rankings (5-7): 78.2 (117)
0-2v #1-25
0-1v #26-50
0-2v #51-100
4-1v #101-200
1-1v #201-341
Home Rankings: 2-178.8
Away Rankings: 2-479.6
Neutral Rankings: 1-271.5
Last Ten Rankings: 1-179.0

Wins Power Rankings: 77.2 (139)
0-2v #1-25
0-1v #26-50
0-2v #51-100
4-1v #101-200
20-5v #201-341
Home Rankings: 13-181.5
Away Rankings: 8-874.8
Neutral Rankings: 3-279.0
Last Ten Rankings: 8-280.7

Predictive / Points Rankings: 75.2 (165)
0-2v #1-25
0-1v #26-50
0-1v #51-100
4-2v #101-200
20-5v #201-341
Home Rankings: 13-176.0
Away Rankings: 8-874.8
Neutral Rankings: 3-274.6
League Power Rankings: 19-474.4
Non-League Power Rankings: 5-776.9
Last Ten Rankings: 8-277.5

Last Ten Rankings (8-2): 79.3 (106)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
2-0v #101-200
6-1v #201-341
Home Rankings: 4-078.3
Away Rankings: 2-176.3
Neutral Rankings: 2-176.0
League Power Rankings: 7-176.4
Non-League Power Rankings: 1-179.0

Home Advantage: 7.1 (81)


Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0 (191)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1 (237)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.1 (268)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.2 (278)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.3 (294)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.6 (294)

Upward Stability: 2.6 (250)

Downward Stability: 3.4 (44)

RPI
RPI: 0.5 (82)
0-3v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
2-3v #51-100
3-1v #101-200
19-4v #201-341


RPI Home (13-1): 0.5 (55)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
1-0v #51-100
3-1v #101-200
9-0v #201-341


RPI Away (8-8): 0.5 (115)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
2-1v #51-100
2-1v #101-200
4-5v #201-341


RPI Neutral (3-2): 0.5 (114)
0-1v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-1v #51-100
1-0v #101-200
2-0v #201-341


RPI League (19-4): 0.5 (98)
0-0v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
0-0v #51-100
1-1v #101-200
18-3v #201-341


RPI Non-League (5-7): 0.5 (54)
0-3v #1-25
0-0v #26-50
3-3v #51-100
0-0v #101-200
2-1v #201-341


RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4 (183)



GAMES
Date Site Score Opponent
11/10/2007Away L 67-81 vs. #36 Vanderbilt
11/17/2007Home W 71-56 vs. #109 Belmont
11/20/2007Away L 68-71 vs. #120 Utah St
11/23/2007Neut W 67-57 vs. #300 Fla Gulf Coast
11/24/2007Neut L 47-61 vs. #94 Valparaiso
11/27/2007Away L 82-104 vs. #2 Memphis
12/1/2007Away W 79-76 vs. #277 Tennessee Tech
12/6/2007Home W 67-63 vs. #266 Morehead St
12/8/2007Away L 62-72 vs. #207 Evansville
12/15/2007Home L 55-64 vs. #67 Akron
12/19/2007Away W 93-84 vs. #109 Belmont
12/22/2007Home W 75-67 vs. #280 Eastern KY
12/29/2007Away W 78-75 vs. #155 Middle Tenn St
1/3/2008Away W 90-85 vs. #243 Tenn Martin
1/5/2008Home W 71-55 vs. #332 Jacksonville St
1/7/2008Home W 73-57 vs. #326 Eastern Ill
1/10/2008Away L 70-82 vs. #218 Murray St
1/12/2008Home W 85-82 vs. #305 SE Missouri St
1/17/2008Home W 86-71 vs. #243 Tenn Martin
1/24/2008Away W 73-62 vs. #332 Jacksonville St
1/26/2008Away L 49-63 vs. #286 Samford
1/29/2008Away L 116-121 vs. #305 SE Missouri St
1/31/2008Home W 92-87 vs. #218 Murray St
2/2/2008Home W 79-78 vs. #244 Tennessee St
2/7/2008Away W 72-52 vs. #326 Eastern Ill
2/9/2008Home W 67-49 vs. #286 Samford
2/16/2008Home W 80-76 vs. #277 Tennessee Tech
2/18/2008Away L 69-73 vs. #244 Tennessee St
2/23/2008Home W 80-72 vs. #133 Geo Southern
2/28/2008Away W 65-59 vs. #280 Eastern KY
3/1/2008Away W 72-56 vs. #266 Morehead St
3/4/2008Home W 76-51 vs. #280 Eastern KY
3/7/2008Neut W 78-77 vs. #243 Tenn Martin
3/8/2008Neut W 82-64 vs. #244 Tennessee St
3/21/2008Neut L 54-74 vs. #5 Texas

FUTURE GAMES
Date Site Win ProbabilityMargin Opponent
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