NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Home Advantage

By ranking
Last Updated Wed Apr 30 18:36:44 CDT 2008

Home Court Advantage = 3.6

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 7.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
13. Western Mich (20-12)12.5
15. Ohio (20-13)12.4
19. Toledo (11-19)12.0
42. Eastern Mich (14-17)9.6
69. Buffalo (9-20)7.5
85. Bowling Green (13-17)7.0
86. Kent (28-7)6.9
111. Northern Ill (6-22)5.9
125. Central Mich (13-16)5.1
129. Miami Ohio (17-16)5.0
134. Ball St (6-24)4.8
242. Akron (24-11)0.8


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 7.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Missouri St (16-16)14.3
17. Indiana St (14-16)12.2
27. Southern Ill (18-15)10.9
36. Evansville (8-21)9.9
59. Creighton (21-11)8.4
79. Wichita St (11-20)7.1
122. Illinois St (24-10)5.3
224. Bradley (21-17)1.5
232. Northern Iowa (17-14)1.4
254. Drake (26-5)0.4


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 6.4


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. TCU (13-16)12.8
22. BYU (27-8)11.6
62. UNLV (26-8)7.8
97. Air Force (14-14)6.3
105. New Mexico (24-9)6.0
140. Wyoming (10-18)4.6
145. San Diego St (19-13)4.4
181. Utah (17-15)2.9
219. Colorado St (6-24)1.6


BIGSOUTH AVERAGE = 6.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
14. High Point (13-14)12.4
16. Liberty (13-16)12.2
24. Charleston Sou (6-20)11.4
74. Coast Carolina (10-15)7.3
80. Radford (8-20)7.1
247. NC Asheville (19-10)0.6
249. Winthrop (20-12)0.5
313. VMI (10-15)-2.9


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 5.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Utah St (23-11)16.3
47. Louisiana Tech (6-24)9.4
51. Fresno St (12-19)9.1
71. Hawaii (11-19)7.4
100. New Mexico St (20-14)6.1
162. Nevada (20-12)3.6
192. Idaho (7-21)2.6
197. San Jose St (13-19)2.3
326. Boise St (24-9)-4.1


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 5.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Texas Tech (15-15)13.2
25. Kansas St (20-12)11.2
41. Oklahoma St (16-16)9.8
50. Iowa St (13-18)9.2
64. Missouri (16-16)7.8
89. Nebraska (20-13)6.8
120. Texas (30-7)5.4
154. Kansas (36-3)3.9
177. Oklahoma (23-12)3.0
239. Baylor (20-11)1.0
267. Colorado (11-20)-0.2
285. Texas A&M (24-11)-0.9


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 5.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
7. Uab (23-11)13.5
10. Tulsa (25-14)12.8
56. Houston (24-10)8.6
57. Marshall (14-14)8.5
57. Marshall (14-14)8.5
61. Central Florida (16-15)7.8
107. Texas El Paso (19-14)6.0
113. East Carolina (9-18)5.6
168. SO Mississippi (15-14)3.4
169. SMU (8-20)3.3
250. Tulane (16-15)0.5
278. Rice (3-27)-0.7
312. Memphis (38-2)-2.9


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 5.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Iupui (23-7)14.4
32. Western Ill (10-18)10.2
126. Southern Utah (11-18)5.1
142. Oral Roberts (23-9)4.5
144. Mo Kansas City (9-21)4.4
191. Centenary (9-21)2.6
220. Valparaiso (20-14)1.6
231. Oakland (15-14)1.4


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 5.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Presbyterian (2-25)22.0
31. IPFW (11-18)10.3
35. North Dakota St (14-13)10.0
66. UC Davis (7-22)7.7
75. South Dakota St (7-21)7.3
102. Utah Valley St (13-14)6.1
112. Longwood (6-22)5.8
136. Savannah St (10-17)4.7
150. Winston-Salem (10-18)4.2
158. Northern Colorado (11-16)3.8
213. NJIT (0-29)1.8
229. NC Central (3-23)1.4
234. Chicago St (8-17)1.2
318. CSU Bakersfield (8-21)-3.2
323. TX Pan American (13-13)-3.9


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 5.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
30. Weber St (15-13)10.3
63. Sacramento St (2-24)7.8
70. Eastern Wash (9-19)7.4
98. Idaho St (10-19)6.2
109. Northrn Arizona (19-11)5.9
110. Montana St (13-15)5.9
259. Portland St (21-10)0.1
308. Montana (12-16)-2.6


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 4.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Vanderbilt (26-8)13.7
43. Arkansas (23-12)9.5
68. Alabama (17-16)7.6
76. Tennessee (30-5)7.3
77. Kentucky (18-13)7.2
94. Mississippi (24-11)6.5
149. Mississippi St (23-11)4.3
159. LSU (12-18)3.8
183. Georgia (16-17)2.8
185. Florida (24-12)2.7
289. Auburn (14-16)-1.1
329. South Carolina (14-18)-4.8


HORIZON LEAGUE AVERAGE = 4.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
54. Illinois Chi (17-15)8.8
67. Wisc Green Bay (15-15)7.6
93. Youngstown St (7-21)6.6
133. Loyola Chi (10-19)4.9
135. Detroit (6-23)4.8
137. Cleveland St (19-13)4.7
172. Butler (30-4)3.2
228. Wright St (21-10)1.5
263. Wisc Milwaukee (13-16)-0.0


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 4.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
18. Towson (13-18)12.0
53. George Mason (23-11)8.8
83. James Madison (13-17)7.0
96. Old Dominion (18-16)6.4
130. Hofstra (12-18)5.0
131. Georgia St (9-21)4.9
146. Northeastern (14-17)4.4
147. NC Wilmington (20-13)4.3
211. Drexel (12-20)1.9
227. Delaware (14-17)1.5
268. VA Commonwealth (24-8)-0.2
275. William & Mary (15-16)-0.5


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 4.4


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
28. Chattanooga (16-13)10.8
46. Furman (7-23)9.4
73. Westrn Carolina (9-21)7.3
103. The Citadel (2-24)6.1
127. Geo Southern (18-12)5.0
163. NC Greensboro (19-12)3.6
179. Coll Of Charltn (16-17)2.9
201. Elon (13-18)2.2
206. Appalachian St (17-13)2.0
271. Davidson (28-7)-0.4
276. Wofford (12-16)-0.5


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 4.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Denver (10-19)14.7
45. North Texas (17-11)9.5
87. Arkansas St (8-20)6.9
90. Florida Intl (8-20)6.7
115. Arkansas Lr (18-11)5.6
138. Troy St (10-19)4.7
171. Middle Tenn St (16-15)3.2
174. South Alabama (24-7)3.2
261. Western KY (27-7)0.0
277. Ul Lafayette (14-15)-0.6
337. New Orleans (17-13)-6.4


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 4.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
33. Norfolk St (16-15)10.2
44. Morgan St (21-11)9.5
49. Howard (6-26)9.2
60. MD Eastrn Shore (4-28)8.3
95. Hampton (18-12)6.4
189. NO Carolina A&T (11-16)2.7
194. Florida A&M (13-17)2.5
199. SO Carolina St (12-20)2.2
284. Delaware St (12-16)-0.9
311. Coppin St (14-21)-2.8
317. Bethune Cookman (9-20)-3.1


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 3.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
38. Stetson (15-16)9.8
48. Kennesaw St (9-20)9.3
72. Fla Atlantic (15-18)7.3
108. Lipscomb (14-16)6.0
114. North Florida (2-26)5.6
124. Gardner-Webb (15-16)5.1
184. SC Upstate (6-22)2.8
195. Campbell (9-20)2.3
196. Belmont (24-9)2.3
214. Jacksonville (17-13)1.7
237. East Tenn St (18-13)1.1
266. Mercer (10-19)-0.1
315. Fla Gulf Coast (10-21)-3.0


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
37. Canisius (6-25)9.9
91. Marist (18-14)6.7
92. Loyola MD (19-14)6.6
101. Iona (12-20)6.1
156. St Peters (6-24)3.8
186. Niagara (19-10)2.7
187. Rider (23-11)2.7
248. Fairfield (14-16)0.5
251. Manhattan (12-19)0.5
293. Siena (23-11)-1.3


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 3.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
21. Notre Dame (25-8)11.9
34. Connecticut (24-9)10.1
88. Georgetown (28-6)6.8
148. Syracuse (21-14)4.3
151. West Virginia (25-11)4.2
176. Marquette (24-10)3.0
178. Pittsburgh (26-10)2.9
188. Providence (15-16)2.7
200. Villanova (22-13)2.2
205. South Florida (12-19)2.1
216. Louisville (27-9)1.7
217. Cincinnati (13-19)1.7
223. St Johns (11-19)1.6
272. Rutgers (11-20)-0.4
279. Seton Hall (17-15)-0.7
282. DePaul (11-19)-0.8


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. Wake Forest (17-13)12.5
99. Miami Fla (22-11)6.2
104. Duke (28-6)6.1
118. North Carolina St (15-16)5.4
128. Virginia Tech (21-14)5.0
139. Clemson (23-10)4.6
170. Virginia (17-16)3.2
209. Boston College (14-17)2.0
225. Maryland (19-15)1.5
245. Florida St (19-15)0.7
297. Georgia Tech (15-17)-1.7
339. North Carolina (36-3)-7.0


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 3.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
20. Penn St (15-16)12.0
40. Michigan St (27-9)9.8
65. Ohio St (24-13)7.7
78. Indiana (25-8)7.2
119. Purdue (25-9)5.4
161. Iowa (13-19)3.6
235. Minnesota (20-14)1.1
252. Michigan (10-22)0.4
304. Wisconsin (31-5)-2.4
327. Illinois (16-19)-4.3
332. Northwestern (7-22)-5.2


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 3.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
23. UC Riverside (8-21)11.5
52. UC Irvine (17-16)9.0
117. Long Beach St (6-25)5.5
207. Cal Poly (11-18)2.0
243. Pacific (20-10)0.8
253. CS Northridge (19-10)0.4
299. UC Santa Barbara (22-9)-1.8
306. CS Fullerton (23-9)-2.5


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 3.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
26. Harvard (8-22)11.2
39. Princeton (5-22)9.8
155. Cornell (21-6)3.9
204. Pennsylvania (13-18)2.1
258. Brown (19-10)0.1
260. Yale (12-15)0.1
265. Dartmouth (9-18)-0.0
305. Columbia (13-15)-2.4


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
55. St Marys CA (24-7)8.8
132. Gonzaga (25-8)4.9
152. San Francisco (9-21)4.2
165. Portland (8-22)3.5
175. Loyola Marymnt (5-26)3.1
208. San Diego (21-14)2.0
270. Santa Clara (13-16)-0.3
320. Pepperdine (10-21)-3.4


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 2.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Geo Washington (9-17)13.4
84. Charlotte (20-14)7.0
106. Dayton (23-11)6.0
141. Xavier (30-7)4.5
160. St Louis (15-15)3.7
180. Duquesne (17-13)2.9
190. St Bonaventure (8-22)2.6
202. Temple (21-13)2.2
215. Rhode Island (21-12)1.7
226. Richmond (16-15)1.5
236. Massachusetts (25-11)1.1
292. Fordham (11-17)-1.3
302. St Josephs (21-13)-2.2
338. La Salle (14-17)-6.5


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 1.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
29. Murray St (16-13)10.6
81. Austin Peay (24-11)7.1
121. Morehead St (13-15)5.4
143. Jacksonville St (5-22)4.5
203. Eastern Ill (6-22)2.1
274. SE Missouri St (10-19)-0.5
287. Eastern KY (12-16)-1.0
294. Tennessee St (13-17)-1.3
298. Tennessee Tech (11-19)-1.8
319. Samford (12-16)-3.2
328. Tenn Martin (15-16)-4.4


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 1.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
58. Lamar (15-11)8.4
166. Sam Houston (19-8)3.4
182. Central Arkansas (10-16)2.8
230. Tex San Antonio (9-17)1.4
233. Nicholls St (9-21)1.2
238. McNeese St (10-16)1.1
241. Northwestern St (12-17)0.9
244. Texas Arlington (17-12)0.7
246. Stephen Austin (22-6)0.6
283. SE Louisiana (13-13)-0.8
300. Texas A&M-CC (9-20)-1.9
301. Ul Monroe (7-21)-2.1
310. Texas St (10-16)-2.7


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
157. Southern (10-18)3.8
164. Alcorn St (6-23)3.6
167. Alabama A&M (11-15)3.4
193. Alabama St (17-11)2.6
221. Jackson St (14-20)1.6
255. Texas Southern (7-25)0.3
256. Grambling (7-17)0.1
295. Prairie View (7-22)-1.4
309. Miss Valley St (15-16)-2.7
333. Ark Pine Bluff (11-18)-5.4


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = -0.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
82. Oregon (18-14)7.1
116. Stanford (28-8)5.5
173. Arizona St (21-13)3.2
210. Washington (16-17)1.9
281. USC (21-12)-0.8
291. Arizona (18-15)-1.2
321. Oregon St (6-24)-3.4
322. UCLA (34-4)-3.6
325. California (17-16)-4.1
330. Washington St (26-9)-4.9


PATRIOT AVERAGE = -0.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
123. Lehigh (14-15)5.3
198. Bucknell (12-19)2.2
222. Lafayette (15-15)1.6
288. Navy (16-14)-1.0
290. Colgate (18-14)-1.2
303. Holy Cross (15-14)-2.3
307. American (21-12)-2.5
316. Army (14-16)-3.1


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = -0.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
153. Hartford (18-16)4.0
218. Umbc (23-9)1.6
240. Vermont (16-15)0.9
257. Binghamton (14-16)0.1
262. New Hampshire (8-20)-0.0
269. Stony Brook (7-23)-0.3
273. Boston U (14-17)-0.4
280. Albany NY (15-15)-0.8
341. Maine (6-23)-7.9


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -3.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
212. Central Conn (14-16)1.8
264. Liu Brooklyn (15-15)-0.0
286. Wagner (23-8)-1.0
296. St Francis NY (7-22)-1.7
324. Fair Dickinson (8-20)-3.9
331. Mt St Marys (19-15)-5.1
334. St Francis PA (5-23)-6.1
335. Robert Morris (26-8)-6.1
340. Monmouth NJ (7-24)-7.4
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