NCAA Tournament Upsets & March Madness Upsets 2013

Most Likely Upsets in the Round Of 64

Round of 64 upsets are not only a hot discussion topic, but also offer the potential to get an edge in bracket pools with upset bonus points. According to our power ratings models, these are the 10 most likely upsets to occur, with seed difference shown for reference. You can also check our Round of 64 game predictions page to see what our other models think of these games.

Promising Opportunities To Pick Higher Seeded Teams

There tends to be an intense focus on Round of 64 upset picks, but many upset oriented scoring systems offer increased bonuses based on round. As a result, making one or more smart bets on moderate to significant seed underdogs to advance multiple rounds can really pay off. The picks highlighted below may not all be very high seeds (i.e. #10-16), but their overall potential to earn upset bonus points appears worth the risk, especially if round bonuses are in play.

Highest Impact Picks With Very Low To Moderate Risk

Even in pools with standard scoring systems, in general, the more people you are competing against, the more risk you need to take to increase your odds of coming in first. These picks all look like solid opportunities from a value or contrarian standpoint, where you can pick against the general public by choosing teams that are almost as likely (or even more likely) to advance to a given round than the public favorite.

Highest Impact Picks With High Risk

When your pool size starts to get up into the hundreds or bigger, the advantage you gain from making some calculated but higher risk upset picks intensifies. In our research, we usually find that the best strategy for very large pools is to go out on a limb with at least one or two key upset picks, and hope they come through, rather than picking lots of early round upsets. The picks below are highly risky but significantly undervalued, and should make a big positive impact on your odds to win if they happen.

Highest Impact Picks With Very High Risk

If you're competing in a gigantic pool, your best strategy is almost always to pick at least one huge longshot to go deep. The key here is recognizing that even if a #1 and a #2 seed make it to the final game and you pick both of them correctly, you will still probably not win a gigantic pool, because hundreds of other people will have made the same choices. However, if you picked #5 Butler vs. #1 Duke in the 2010 finals, you had a great chance at outperforming thousands of people. The picks below are longshots, but as longshots go, they're smart ones to choose.