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AR Lit Rock at Arkansas St

  Saturday Jan 14, 2012 - 8:05 pm - Jonesboro, AR | Odds: Arkansas St. by 3.5, Total Points: 119.5 | Team Pages: ALR | ARST

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALR ARST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting ALR ARST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 53.5
Field Goal % 41.1% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 35.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 21.0
Free Throw % 71.8% 69.7%

Ball Control ALR ARST
Rebounds 35.8 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 9.2
Turnovers 8.5 12.7
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.3
Steals 5.7 3.6
Fouls 15.7 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALR ARST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with ALR ARST
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 21.7%
Player Fouled 22.1% 22.3%
Turnover 12.0% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 8.1%

Odds Per Shot Taken ALR ARST
Shot Blocked 4.4% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 26.6%