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Auburn at Florida St: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jan 4, 2012 6:00 pm - Tallahassee, FL
Odds: Florida State by 12, Total Points: 127

Matchup Menu: AUB @ FSU

More Games From Jan 4, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB FSU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting AUB FSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 55.9
Field Goal % 48.3% 36.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 40.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 28.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 28.3 30.4
Free Throw % 74.8% 70.5%
Ball Control AUB FSU
Rebounds 41.0 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 21.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 11.2
Turnovers 12.5 11.6
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.4
Steals 5.8 8.3
Fouls 19.3 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB FSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with AUB FSU
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 16.7%
Player Fouled 25.5% 26.0%
Turnover 16.8% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB FSU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 9.0%
Offensive Rebound 36.6% 28.0%