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San Jose St at N Mex State

  Saturday Feb 25, 2012 - 9:00 pm - Las Cruces, NM | Odds: New Mexico St. by 16, Total Points: 147.5 | Team Pages: SJST | NMSU

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJST NMSU
Points 33.0 58.4
Total Points   91.4
Points From 2-Pointers 15.5 24.7
Points From 3-Pointers 4.9 12.0
Points From Free Throws 12.6 21.7

Shooting SJST NMSU
Field Goals Made 9.4 16.3
Field Goals Attempted 49.0 68.8
Field Goal % 19.1% 23.7%
2 Pointers Made 7.8 12.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 57.7
2 Point Shooting % 20.3% 21.4%
3 Pointers Made 1.6 4.0
3 Pointers Attempted 10.8 11.0
3 Point Shooting % 15.1% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 12.6 21.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 33.9
Free Throw % 65.3% 64.0%

Ball Control SJST NMSU
Rebounds 44.2 58.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 16.1 31.6
Turnovers 23.2 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.0
Steals 5.1 10.9
Fouls 19.0 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: +2.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJST NMSU
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 92.7

% of Possessions with SJST NMSU
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 55.4%
3 Point Attempt 12.1% 10.6%
Player Fouled 23.7% 26.5%
Turnover 32.3% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 15.2% 7.2%

Odds Per Shot Taken SJST NMSU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 37.4% 52.9%