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Florida St at Duke

  Saturday Jan 21, 2012 - 4:00 pm - Durham, NC | Odds: Duke by 10.5, Total Points: 144.5 | Team Pages: FSU | DUKE

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU DUKE
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting FSU DUKE
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 55.1
Field Goal % 43.0% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 12.8 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 37.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 24.8
Free Throw % 67.3% 69.4%

Ball Control FSU DUKE
Rebounds 31.3 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 12.0
Turnovers 14.3 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.9
Steals 4.6 6.7
Fouls 17.1 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU DUKE
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with FSU DUKE
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 16.1% 21.8%
Player Fouled 22.4% 24.9%
Turnover 20.9% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 6.8%

Odds Per Shot Taken FSU DUKE
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 35.9%