NC-Wilmgton at Wm & Mary

  Saturday Jan 21, 2012 - 2:00 pm - Williamsburg, VA | Odds: NC-Wilmington by 2.5, Total Points: 135.5 | Team Pages: UNCW | WLMY

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting UNCW WLMY
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 48.4
Field Goal % 40.6% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 35.0%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 23.7
Free Throw % 68.4% 73.3%

Ball Control UNCW WLMY
Rebounds 33.8 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 6.6
Turnovers 9.7 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.4
Steals 7.7 5.7
Fouls 17.7 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW WLMY
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with UNCW WLMY
2 Point Attempt 51.2% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 22.8%
Player Fouled 20.6% 26.1%
Turnover 14.3% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 11.3%

Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW WLMY
Shot Blocked 7.2% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.9% 23.0%