Arkansas St at Saint Louis: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Dec 22, 2011 8:00 pm - St. Louis, MO
Odds: Saint Louis by 17.5, Total Points: 116.5

More Games From Dec 22, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST SLU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ARST SLU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 58.1
Field Goal % 45.6% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 29.3 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 39.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 22.8
Free Throw % 70.2% 75.1%
Ball Control ARST SLU
Rebounds 37.2 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 8.2
Turnovers 7.6 8.9
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.5
Steals 5.0 4.9
Fouls 16.1 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST SLU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ARST SLU
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 34.1% 21.5%
Player Fouled 20.0% 22.5%
Turnover 10.6% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST SLU
Shot Blocked 6.2% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 25.1%