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Kansas vs. N Carolina

  Sunday Mar 25, 2012 - 5:05 pm - St. Louis, MO (Neutral Site) | Odds: Kansas by 2, Total Points: 141.5 | Team Pages: KANS | UNC

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring KANS UNC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting KANS UNC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 60.7
Field Goal % 40.0% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 47.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 13.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 34.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 26.3 21.1
Free Throw % 72.0% 71.0%

Ball Control KANS UNC
Rebounds 36.0 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 12.8
Turnovers 11.2 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 5.4
Steals 6.4 5.9
Fouls 15.2 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KANS UNC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with KANS UNC
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 55.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.6% 15.1%
Player Fouled 24.3% 21.2%
Turnover 15.7% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.9%

Odds Per Shot Taken KANS UNC
Shot Blocked 9.1% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 32.2% 35.0%