W Kentucky vs. AR Lit Rock
The chart above graphs odds data from Pinnacle Sports
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2006-2007 NCAA Basketball season there have been 2476 games where the closing line favored the home team by 2.5 to 4.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Arkansas-Little Rock won the game 1538 times (62.1%)
- The team like Western Kentucky won the game 938 times (37.9%)
- The team like Western Kentucky did better against the spread, going 1214-1211-51 (50.1% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.6 points
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2008-2009 NCAA Basketball season there have been 2774 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 1 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Arkansas-Little Rock did better against the spread, going 1354-1346-74 (50.1% ATS).