St Marys at Cal Poly: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Dec 3, 2011 10:00 pm - San Luis Obispo, CA
Odds: Saint Mary's by 4, Total Points: 125.5

More Games From Dec 3, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC CP
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting SMC CP
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 50.9
Field Goal % 49.8% 34.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 36.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 13.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 31.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 16.3
Free Throw % 67.1% 70.9%
Ball Control SMC CP
Rebounds 45.3 23.2
Rebounds - Defensive 30.4 18.2
Rebounds - Offensive 15.0 5.0
Turnovers 9.0 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.6
Steals 6.7 4.1
Fouls 15.4 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC CP
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SMC CP
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 19.1%
Player Fouled 23.5% 23.4%
Turnover 13.6% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC CP
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 45.2% 14.1%