coin-dollar notification2 facebook2 twitter2

Illinois at Northwestern

  Wednesday Jan 4, 2012 - 7:00 pm - Evanston, IL | Odds: Northwestern by 2.5, Total Points: 133.5 | Team Pages: ILL | NWST

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL NWST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting ILL NWST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 50.9
Field Goal % 38.2% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 39.2% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 35.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 13.8
Free Throw % 79.5% 74.0%

Ball Control ILL NWST
Rebounds 34.8 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 7.1
Turnovers 7.2 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 5.4 2.9
Fouls 13.9 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL NWST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with ILL NWST
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 27.5%
Player Fouled 22.8% 21.8%
Turnover 11.4% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 4.6% 8.6%

Odds Per Shot Taken ILL NWST
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 22.9%