Samford at Kentucky: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Dec 20, 2011 7:00 pm - Lexington, KY
Odds: Kentucky by 34, Total Points: 136

More Games From Dec 20, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM UK
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting SAM UK
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 62.1
Field Goal % 42.3% 51.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 58.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 27.5 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 40.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 24.9
Free Throw % 71.5% 78.4%
Ball Control SAM UK
Rebounds 32.2 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 10.2
Turnovers 12.9 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 7.4
Steals 7.3 8.4
Fouls 18.0 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM UK
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SAM UK
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 26.1%
Player Fouled 21.2% 22.7%
Turnover 16.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM UK
Shot Blocked 12.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 30.9%