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Samford at App State: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Feb 2, 2012 7:00 pm - Boone, NC
Odds: Appalachian St. by 8, Total Points: 133

Matchup Menu: SAM @ APP

More Games From Feb 2, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM APP
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting SAM APP
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 66.8 60.9
Field Goal % 41.1% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.3 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 33.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 21.6
Free Throw % 70.7% 69.5%
Ball Control SAM APP
Rebounds 34.5 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.1
Turnovers 10.3 12.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 6.7
Steals 8.2 6.1
Fouls 16.1 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM APP
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SAM APP
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 22.1%
Player Fouled 18.1% 21.3%
Turnover 13.6% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM APP
Shot Blocked 11.2% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 31.2%