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Gonzaga at Illinois

  Saturday Dec 3, 2011 - 3:15 pm - Champaign, IL | Odds: Illinois by 3, Total Points: 136 | Team Pages: GONZ | ILL

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ ILL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting GONZ ILL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 57.7
Field Goal % 50.5% 37.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 39.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 40.1% 33.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 15.6
Free Throw % 69.4% 79.5%

Ball Control GONZ ILL
Rebounds 38.2 29.3
Rebounds - Defensive 29.3 20.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 8.5
Turnovers 10.5 7.9
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.8
Steals 4.0 5.5
Fouls 13.6 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ ILL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with GONZ ILL
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 24.3%
Player Fouled 25.5% 20.5%
Turnover 15.8% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.0%

Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ ILL
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 22.4%