DePaul at Villanova: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Jan 8, 2012 12:00 pm - Villanova, PA
Odds: Villanova by 8.5, Total Points: 154

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEP VILL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DEP VILL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 58.1
Field Goal % 40.7% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 27.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 59.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 30.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 38.0%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 14.7
Free Throw % 73.8% 79.7%
Ball Control DEP VILL
Rebounds 29.7 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 7.3
Turnovers 11.2 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 4.5 6.4
Fouls 11.8 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEP VILL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DEP VILL
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 35.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 40.7%
Player Fouled 21.5% 17.4%
Turnover 16.6% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEP VILL
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 16.3% 23.1%