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NBA Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 5 2-3-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 20 11-9-0 55.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 221 100-118-3 45.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 117 45-70-2 39.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 95 51-43-1 54.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 52 26-25-1 51.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 45 22-20-3 52.4%
Total 555 257-288-10 47.2%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 10 4-6-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 43 16-25-2 39.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 432 228-193-11 54.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 268 137-128-3 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 353 185-164-4 53.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 17 8-9-0 47.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 9 4-5-0 44.4%
Total 1132 582-530-20 52.3%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 3 2-1-0 66.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 14 8-5-1 61.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 185 86-96-3 47.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 152 82-64-6 56.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 215 100-108-7 48.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 11 3-8-0 27.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 4 1-3-0 25.0%
Total 584 282-285-17 49.7%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 1-0-0 100.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 8 6-2-0 75.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 99 41-57-1 41.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 103 45-57-1 44.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 153 71-80-2 47.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 10 4-6-0 40.0%
Total 374 168-202-4 45.4%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 26 14-12-0 53.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 11 5-6-0 45.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 36 15-21-0 41.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3 2-1-0 66.7%
Total 76 36-40-0 47.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.