Game Information
| Date | Sunday, December 20, 2009 |
| Time | 6:00 PM |
| Location | American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 505 | POR | +5.0 | 186.0 | +193 |
| 506 | MIA | -5.0 | -215 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | Power Rating Model | Miami 53% odds to win | |
| Miami | Similar Games - Game Winners | Miami 73% odds to win | |
| Miami | Decision Tree | Miami 68% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR +5.0 | Power Rating Model | Portland loses by 0.8 | |
| POR +5.0 | Similar Games - ATS | Portland 59% odds to cover | |
| POR +5.0 | Decision Tree | Portland 52% odds to cover |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 186.0 | Decision Tree | 56% odds to go under 186.0 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR +180 | Power Rating Model | Vegas money line is 11% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | POR | adv | MIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off Efficiency | 1.076 | 1.031 | |
| Effective FG % | 49.9% | 49.1% | |
| Turnover % | 11.5% | 11.8% | |
| Off Rebound % | 28.3% | 25.8% | |
| FTA/FGA | 0.323 | 0.295 | |
| Points/Game | 98.1 | 96.2 | |
| Avg Score Margin | +3.1 | +1.0 | |
| SOS PR | 100.2 | 100.4 |
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | POR | adv | MIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Def Efficiency | 1.041 | 1.021 | |
| Opp Effective FG % | 50.3% | 48.4% | |
| Opp Turnover % | 12.8% | 13.3% | |
| Def Rebound % | 74.6% | 74.8% | |
| Opp FTA/FGA | 0.295 | 0.326 | |
| Opp Points/Game | 94.9 | 95.3 | |
| Block % | 5.4% | 7.0% | |
| Personal Foul % | 20.8% | 20.2% |
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | POR | adv | MIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 42-28 | 35-34 | |
| vs Division | 6-7 | 8-7 | |
| vs Conference | 26-15 | 21-19 | |
| Streak | W5 | L2 | |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 | |
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 6-4 | |
| Home | 23-13 | 20-16 | |
| Away | 19-15 | 15-18 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | POR | adv | MIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 37-32-1 | 34-35-0 | |
| vs Division | 6-7-0 | 8-7-0 | |
| vs Conference | 22-18-1 | 20-20-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L2 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5-0 | 5-5-0 | |
| Home | 16-19-1 | 17-19-0 | |
| Away | 21-13-0 | 17-16-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||