Toronto at Washington: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jan 10, 2012 7:00 pm - Washington, DC
Odds: Washington by 2.5, Total Points: 183

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR WAS
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting TOR WAS
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 93.1 92.7
Field Goal % 50.2% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 61.8 57.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.9% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 31.4 35.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 35.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 18.9
Free Throw % 75.6% 76.3%
Ball Control TOR WAS
Rebounds 52.8 45.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.2 35.6
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 10.4
Turnovers 12.6 12.8
Blocked Shots 5.4 5.3
Steals 7.2 6.4
Fouls 15.8 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR WAS
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with TOR WAS
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 30.0%
Player Fouled 15.8% 15.0%
Turnover 11.9% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR WAS
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 20.9%