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Dallas at Phoenix

  Monday Jan 30, 2012 - 9:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ | Odds: Dallas by 5, Total Points: 184.5 | Team Pages: DAL | PHX

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL PHX
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting DAL PHX
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 85.6 85.6
Field Goal % 45.1% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 60.8 58.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 34.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 21.9
Free Throw % 75.5% 74.7%

Ball Control DAL PHX
Rebounds 48.1 52.3
Rebounds - Defensive 36.0 38.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 14.2
Turnovers 12.8 15.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.8
Steals 7.7 7.6
Fouls 18.0 21.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL PHX
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with DAL PHX
2 Point Attempt 53.0% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 23.1%
Player Fouled 20.7% 17.8%
Turnover 12.7% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.7%

Odds Per Shot Taken DAL PHX
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 28.4%