Game Information
| Date | Wednesday, November 18, 2009 |
| Time | 7:00 PM |
| Location | Philips Arena, Atlanta, GA |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 503 | MIA | +7.5 | 191.0 | +277 |
| 504 | ATL | -7.5 | -315 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | Power Rating Model | Atlanta 77% odds to win | |
| Atlanta | Similar Games - Game Winners | Atlanta 65% odds to win | |
| Atlanta | Decision Tree | Atlanta 73% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL -7.5 | Power Rating Model | Atlanta wins by 8.3 | |
| ATL -7.5 | Similar Games - ATS | Atlanta 52% odds to cover | |
| ATL -7.5 | Decision Tree | Atlanta 51% odds to cover |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 191.0 | Decision Tree | 51% odds to go under 191.0 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL -327 | Power Rating Model | Vegas money line is 1% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | MIA | adv | ATL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off Efficiency | 1.031 | 1.088 | |
| Effective FG % | 49.1% | 50.5% | |
| Turnover % | 11.8% | 10.9% | |
| Off Rebound % | 25.8% | 28.0% | |
| FTA/FGA | 0.295 | 0.289 | |
| Points/Game | 96.2 | 102.3 | |
| Avg Score Margin | +1.0 | +4.8 | |
| SOS PR | 100.4 | 100.1 |
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | MIA | adv | ATL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Def Efficiency | 1.021 | 1.036 | |
| Opp Effective FG % | 48.4% | 49.9% | |
| Opp Turnover % | 13.3% | 12.8% | |
| Def Rebound % | 74.8% | 72.4% | |
| Opp FTA/FGA | 0.326 | 0.278 | |
| Opp Points/Game | 95.3 | 97.5 | |
| Block % | 7.0% | 6.3% | |
| Personal Foul % | 20.2% | 19.0% |
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | MIA | adv | ATL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 35-34 | 44-24 | |
| vs Division | 8-7 | 6-7 | |
| vs Conference | 21-19 | 25-15 | |
| Streak | L2 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 | |
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 7-3 | |
| Home | 20-16 | 27-7 | |
| Away | 15-18 | 17-17 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | MIA | adv | ATL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 34-35-0 | 39-29-0 | |
| vs Division | 8-7-0 | 4-9-0 | |
| vs Conference | 20-20-0 | 24-16-0 | |
| Streak | L2 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5-0 | 5-5-0 | |
| Home | 17-19-0 | 20-14-0 | |
| Away | 17-16-0 | 19-15-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||