Game Information
| Week | Week 4 |
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2009 |
| Time | 4:30 PM |
| Location | Indian Stadium, Jonesboro, AR |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 395 | TROY | +2.5 | 51.0 | +115 |
| 396 | ARST | -2.5 | -127 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas St | Power Ratings | Arkansas St 68% odds to win | |
| Arkansas St | Similar Games | Arkansas St 57% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST -2.5 | Power Ratings | Arkansas St wins by 6.1 | |
| TROY +2.5 | Similar Games - Odds | Troy 58% odds to cover | |
| ARST -2.5 | Similar Games - Pts | Arkansas St wins by 3.0 |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 51.0 | Similar Games | 59% odds to go over 51.0 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST -133 | Power Ratings | Vegas money line is 11% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | TROY | adv | ARST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 33.7 | 19.2 | |
| Points/Play | 0.439 | 0.293 | |
| Avg Score Margin | +3.9 | -6.2 | |
| Yards/Game | 487.7 | 314.5 | |
| Yards/Play | 6.4 | 4.8 | |
| TOP % (net OT) | 48.277% | 49.464% | |
| SOS PR | 21.9 | 13.1 | |
| Offensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | TROY | adv | ARST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 29.8 | 25.4 | |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.399 | 0.370 | |
| Opp Yards/Game | 426.7 | 366.2 | |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.7 | 5.3 | |
| Takeaways/Game | 1.6 | 1.5 | |
| TO Margin/Game | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 68.3 | 60.8 | |
| Defensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | TROY | adv | ARST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 9-3 | 4-8 | |
| vs Conference | 7-0 | 2-5 | |
| Streak | L1 | W2 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 | |
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 3-7 | |
| Home | 5-0 | 2-2 | |
| Away | 4-4 | 1-6 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | TROY | adv | ARST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 8-4-1 | 2-9-0 | |
| vs Conference | 7-0-0 | 1-6-0 | |
| Streak | P1 | L6 | |
| Last 5 | 2-2-1 | 0-5-0 | |
| Last 10 | 7-2-1 | 2-8-0 | |
| Home | 5-0-0 | 1-3-0 | |
| Away | 3-4-1 | 1-6-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||