Game Information
| Week | Week 5 |
| Date | Saturday, October 3, 2009 |
| Time | 12:00 PM |
| Location | Ball State Stadium, Muncie, IN |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | TOL | -5.5 | 59.0 | -200 |
| 130 | BALL | +5.5 | +180 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | Power Ratings | Toledo 85% odds to win | |
| Toledo | Similar Games | Toledo 66% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL -5.0 | Power Ratings | Toledo wins by 15.2 | |
| BALL +5.0 | Similar Games - Odds | Ball State 58% odds to cover | |
| BALL +5.0 | Similar Games - Pts | Ball State loses by 4.3 |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 60.5 | Similar Games | 57% odds to go under 60.5 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL -200 | Power Ratings | Vegas money line is 18% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | TOL | adv | BALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 29.7 | 19.5 | |
| Points/Play | 0.409 | 0.300 | |
| Avg Score Margin | -8.0 | -9.2 | |
| Yards/Game | 437.9 | 309.1 | |
| Yards/Play | 6.0 | 4.8 | |
| TOP % (net OT) | 51.061% | 48.008% | |
| SOS PR | 13.0 | 14.6 | |
| Offensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | TOL | adv | BALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 37.7 | 28.6 | |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.522 | 0.411 | |
| Opp Yards/Game | 407.4 | 392.5 | |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.6 | 5.6 | |
| Takeaways/Game | 1.8 | 1.7 | |
| TO Margin/Game | -0.8 | -0.4 | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 71.2 | 43.0 | |
| Defensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | TOL | adv | BALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 5-7 | 2-10 | |
| vs Conference | 3-5 | 2-6 | |
| Streak | L1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 2-8 | |
| Home | 3-2 | 0-5 | |
| Away | 2-5 | 2-4 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | TOL | adv | BALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 5-7-0 | 6-5-0 | |
| vs Conference | 3-5-0 | 4-4-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 6-4-0 | |
| Home | 3-2-0 | 1-4-0 | |
| Away | 2-5-0 | 5-1-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||