Game Information
| Week | Week 5 |
| Date | Thursday, October 1, 2009 |
| Time | 8:00 PM |
| Location | Legion Field, Birmingham, AL |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | USM | -10.5 | 57.5 | -400 |
| 106 | UAB | +10.5 | +346 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| S Mississippi | Power Ratings | S Mississippi 92% odds to win | |
| S Mississippi | Similar Games | S Mississippi 74% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM -10.5 | Power Ratings | S Mississippi wins by 21.2 | |
| UAB +10.5 | Similar Games - Odds | UAB 60% odds to cover | |
| UAB +10.5 | Similar Games - Pts | UAB loses by 8.6 |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 58.5 | Similar Games | 53% odds to go under 58.5 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM -390 | Power Ratings | Vegas money line is 12% different from model | |
| UAB +338 | Similar Games | Vegas money line is 3% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | USM | adv | UAB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 31.3 | 27.8 | |
| Points/Play | 0.452 | 0.430 | |
| Avg Score Margin | +3.3 | -4.6 | |
| Yards/Game | 401.1 | 425.9 | |
| Yards/Play | 5.8 | 6.6 | |
| TOP % (net OT) | 47.578% | 48.593% | |
| SOS PR | 23.6 | 22.1 | |
| Offensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | USM | adv | UAB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 28.0 | 32.3 | |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.362 | 0.443 | |
| Opp Yards/Game | 410.9 | 453.3 | |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.3 | 6.2 | |
| Takeaways/Game | 2.0 | 1.8 | |
| TO Margin/Game | +0.7 | +0.8 | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 67.4 | 68.7 | |
| Defensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | USM | adv | UAB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7-5 | 5-7 | |
| vs Conference | 5-3 | 4-4 | |
| Streak | L2 | L2 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 | |
| Home | 5-0 | 3-2 | |
| Away | 1-6 | 2-5 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | USM | adv | UAB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 6-6-0 | 5-7-0 | |
| vs Conference | 5-3-0 | 4-4-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L2 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 6-4-0 | 4-6-0 | |
| Home | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Away | 3-4-0 | 2-5-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||