Game Information
| Week | Week 5 |
| Date | Saturday, October 3, 2009 |
| Time | 3:30 PM |
| Location | Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | AFA | +2.5 | 48.0 | +124 |
| 148 | NAVY | -2.5 | -137 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | Power Ratings | Navy 91% odds to win | |
| Navy | Similar Games | Navy 58% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY -2.5 | Power Ratings | Navy wins by 20.5 | |
| AFA +2.5 | Similar Games - Odds | Air Force 53% odds to cover | |
| NAVY -2.5 | Similar Games - Pts | Navy wins by 5.6 |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 48.0 | Similar Games | 53% odds to go under 48.0 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY -137 | Power Ratings | Vegas money line is 33% different from model | |
| NAVY -137 | Similar Games | Vegas money line is 0% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | AFA | adv | NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 26.2 | 27.5 | |
| Points/Play | 0.348 | 0.399 | |
| Avg Score Margin | +9.2 | +7.9 | |
| Yards/Game | 354.8 | 358.8 | |
| Yards/Play | 4.7 | 5.2 | |
| TOP % (net OT) | 54.806% | 57.863% | |
| SOS PR | 28.9 | 23.8 | |
| Offensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | AFA | adv | NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 17.0 | 19.5 | |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.269 | 0.316 | |
| Opp Yards/Game | 299.8 | 332.5 | |
| Opp Yards/Play | 4.8 | 5.4 | |
| Takeaways/Game | 2.5 | 1.6 | |
| TO Margin/Game | +1.5 | +0.6 | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 44.6 | 30.8 | |
| Defensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | AFA | adv | NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7-5 | 9-4 | |
| vs Conference | 5-3 | 3-0 | |
| Streak | W1 | W2 | |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 | |
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 8-2 | |
| Home | 4-1 | 4-1 | |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-3 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | AFA | adv | NAVY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7-5-0 | 7-6-0 | |
| vs Conference | 5-3-0 | 1-2-0 | |
| Streak | W1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 4-1-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Last 10 | 6-4-0 | 5-5-0 | |
| Home | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Away | 4-3-0 | 4-4-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||