Game Information
| Week | Week 5 |
| Date | Saturday, October 3, 2009 |
| Time | 12:00 PM |
| Location | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | UVA | +12.0 | 42.5 | +389 |
| 124 | UNC | -12.0 | -455 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| N Carolina | Power Ratings | N Carolina 86% odds to win | |
| N Carolina | Similar Games | N Carolina 74% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC -13.0 | Power Ratings | N Carolina wins by 16.4 | |
| UVA +13.0 | Similar Games - Odds | Virginia 52% odds to cover | |
| UVA +13.0 | Similar Games - Pts | Virginia loses by 12.2 |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 41.5 | Similar Games | 59% odds to go under 41.5 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC -475 | Power Ratings | Vegas money line is 4% different from model | |
| UVA +404 | Similar Games | Vegas money line is 6% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | UVA | adv | UNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 19.8 | 20.6 | |
| Points/Play | 0.295 | 0.313 | |
| Avg Score Margin | -6.5 | +2.1 | |
| Yards/Game | 269.7 | 303.4 | |
| Yards/Play | 4.0 | 4.6 | |
| TOP % (net OT) | 45.803% | 50.696% | |
| SOS PR | 30.8 | 32.5 | |
| Offensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | UVA | adv | UNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 26.4 | 18.5 | |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.366 | 0.276 | |
| Opp Yards/Game | 362.9 | 289.3 | |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.0 | 4.3 | |
| Takeaways/Game | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
| TO Margin/Game | +0.5 | -0.1 | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 53.1 | 57.4 | |
| Defensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | UVA | adv | UNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 3-9 | 8-4 | |
| vs Conference | 2-6 | 4-4 | |
| Streak | L6 | L2 | |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 | |
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 5-5 | |
| Home | 1-5 | 3-2 | |
| Away | 2-3 | 3-3 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | UVA | adv | UNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 6-5-0 | 5-6-0 | |
| vs Conference | 4-4-0 | 4-4-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L2 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 6-4-0 | 5-5-0 | |
| Home | 2-4-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Away | 4-1-0 | 2-4-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||