Game Information
| Week | Week 4 |
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2009 |
| Time | 12:00 PM |
| Location | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
Odds
| Rot | Team | Spread | O/U | Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357 | USF | +14.0 | 51.5 | +423 |
| 358 | FSU | -14.0 | -500 |
Matchup Analysis
Game Winner Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | Power Ratings | Florida St 96% odds to win | |
| Florida St | Similar Games | Florida St 85% odds to win |
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU -14.0 | Power Ratings | Florida St wins by 27.0 | |
| USF +14.0 | Similar Games - Odds | S Florida 54% odds to cover | |
| FSU -14.0 | Similar Games - Pts | Florida St wins by 14.8 |
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 51.0 | Similar Games | 51% odds to go under 51.0 points |
Money Line Predictions
| Pick | Confidence | Model | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU -500 | Power Ratings | Vegas money line is 13% different from model | |
| FSU -500 | Similar Games | Vegas money line is 2% different from model |
Key Offensive Stats
| Stat | USF | adv | FSU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 22.3 | 31.0 | |
| Points/Play | 0.345 | 0.453 | |
| Avg Score Margin | -0.5 | -0.8 | |
| Yards/Game | 349.7 | 422.8 | |
| Yards/Play | 5.4 | 6.2 | |
| TOP % (net OT) | 49.492% | 51.824% | |
| SOS PR | 28.1 | 33.2 | |
| Offensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Key Defensive Stats
| Stat | USF | adv | FSU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 22.7 | 31.8 | |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.333 | 0.486 | |
| Opp Yards/Game | 344.0 | 443.2 | |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.0 | 6.8 | |
| Takeaways/Game | 1.7 | 2.2 | |
| TO Margin/Game | -0.2 | +0.2 | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 56.3 | 62.2 | |
| Defensive Stat Breakdown » | |||
Win/Loss Trends
| Record | USF | adv | FSU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7-5 | 6-6 | |
| vs Conference | 3-4 | 4-4 | |
| Streak | W1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 | |
| Home | 2-2 | 2-3 | |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-3 | |
| More Win/Loss Analysis » | |||
ATS Trends
| Record | USF | adv | FSU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 5-6-0 | 4-8-0 | |
| vs Conference | 3-4-0 | 2-6-0 | |
| Streak | W2 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5-0 | 3-7-0 | |
| Home | 1-3-0 | 0-5-0 | |
| Away | 4-3-0 | 4-3-0 | |
| More ATS Analysis » | |||