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#16 Ark Pine Bl #16 Winthrop
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#16 Ark Pine Bl vs. #16 Winthrop

Play In Game | Date/Time TBD | Dayton Arena | Dayton, OH
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Win Odds

Algorithmic Model APB WIN
Power Ratings Model Analyzes each team's scoring margins and schedule strength. 36.3% 63.7%
Decision Tree Model Sophisticated forecasting model that incorporates dozens of stats. >50% <50%
Adjusted Scoring Margin Compares points scored and allowed to opponent averages. 42.5% 57.5%
Similar Games Model Based on results of past games between statistically similar teams. 30.4% 69.6%
Simulation Model Driven by advanced play-by-play computer simulation of game. 34.9% 65.1%
Seed Difference of 0 Historical tournament win odds for teams with seed difference of 0 50.0% 50.0%

Expected Win Margin

Algorithmic Model APB WIN
Power Ratings Model Analyzes each team's scoring margins and schedule strength. -2.7 +2.7
Adjusted Scoring Margin Compares points scored and allowed to opponent averages. -1.5 +1.5
Similar Games Model Based on results of past games between statistically similar teams. -5.3 +5.3
Simulation Model Driven by advanced play-by-play computer simulation of game. -3.3 +3.3
Vegas Point Spread Line not available

Algorithmic win odds projections indicate moderate consensus that Winthrop has a slight edge in this game, with at least an 55% chance to beat Ark Pine Bl.

Other factors to consider:

  • Ark Pine Bl has no reported injuries
  • Winthrop has no reported injuries
  • Neither team has a playing style advantage according to our simulation model

Strategy Tip: Picking smart upsets is all about taking the right risks. Underseeded teams with 35-50% win odds can often be great picks, especially in larger bracket pools.

 

Similar Games Analysis Model

Output APB WIN
Win Odds -- --
Win Margin Upgrade to Bettor
Cover Odds Upgrade to Bettor
Over/Under Odds Upgrade to Bettor
Visit the My Predictive Algorithm section to customize predictions using the similar games model.

 

Predictive Power Ratings Model

Output APB WIN
Win Odds -- --
Win Margin Upgrade to Bettor
To learn more about predictive power ratings and view the ratings of all Division 1 NCAA Basketball teams on one page, check out our NCAA basketball predictive rankings page.

 

Adjusted Scoring Margin Method

Output APB WIN
Win Margin (Simple) Upgrade to Bettor
Win Margin (Advanced) Upgrade to Bettor
Final Score (Simple) Upgrade to Bettor
Final Score (Advanced) Upgrade to Bettor

 

 

Playing Style Advantage

Advantage: Ark Pine Bl

Expected Effect: +0.0 pts

Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game.

This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

Note: This is a free preview of the simulated box score. You must purchase the Bettor Pro package for complete access to this page.
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Possession Projections

Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 69.6
% of Possessions with APB WIN
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 16.3% 15.1%
Player Fouled 26.7% 28.6%
Turnover 21.5% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken APB WIN
Shot Blocked 10.1% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 27.0%

Projected Box Score

APB WIN
Points 56.8 60.1
Total Points 116.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.2 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 10.3 9.3
Points From Free Throws 17.3 18.8
Field Goals Made 18.0 19.1
Field Goals Attempted 48.9 51.5
Field Goal % 36.8% 37.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 40.9%
3 Pointers Made 3.4 3.1
3 Pointers Attempted 13.5 12.4
3 Point Shooting % 25.5% 25.1%
Free Throws Made 17.3 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.9 29.7
Free Throw % 64.4% 63.4%
Rebounds 39.2 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.5
Turnovers 15.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 5.1
Steals 5.7 8.0
Fouls 20.0 18.7
 

Ark Pine Bl Four Factors

Stat APB Off adv WIN Def
Effective FG % 45.0% 45.7%
Off Rebound % 33.8% 28.3%
Turnover % 20.8% 19.3%
FTA/FGA 0.491 0.387

Winthrop Four Factors

Stat WIN Off adv APB Def
Effective FG % 41.9% 45.6%
Off Rebound % 32.3% 25.7%
Turnover % 14.9% 17.7%
FTA/FGA 0.354 0.551

Ark Pine Bl vs Winthrop Efficiency

Stat APB Off adv WIN Def
Possessions 70.3 68.5
Off Efficiency 0.916 0.904
Effective FG % 45.0% 45.7%
Two Point Rate 74.4% 64.8%
Three Point Rate 25.6% 35.2%
Free Throw Rate 31.9% 26.3%
Two Point % 44.8% 46.3%
Three Point % 30.4% 29.7%
Free Throw % 66.3% 63.9%
Points (2 pters) 35.0 31.7
Points (3 pters) 12.3 16.6
Off Rebound % 33.8% 28.3%
Def Rebound % 74.3% 67.7%
Block % 6.8% 6.2%
Steal % 8.7% 7.7%
Turnover % 20.8% 19.3%
Personal Foul % 29.0% 22.3%
Assists/FGM 0.580 0.568

Winthrop vs Ark Pine Bl Efficiency

Stat WIN Off adv APB Def
Possessions 68.5 70.3
Off Efficiency 0.913 0.920
Effective FG % 41.9% 45.6%
Two Point Rate 74.3% 69.5%
Three Point Rate 25.7% 30.5%
Free Throw Rate 25.9% 35.5%
Two Point % 42.6% 44.1%
Three Point % 26.5% 32.8%
Free Throw % 63.9% 66.3%
Points (2 pters) 37.3 31.0
Points (3 pters) 12.0 15.2
Off Rebound % 32.3% 25.7%
Def Rebound % 71.7% 66.2%
Block % 7.1% 8.3%
Steal % 11.2% 9.8%
Turnover % 14.9% 17.7%
Personal Foul % 24.4% 26.0%
Assists/FGM 0.477 0.570
Only Better and Bettor Pro subscribers have access to Odds & Line History

Tournament Bettor and Tournament Bettor Pro have access to our complete odds and line history. View summary splits of Straight Up, Against the Spread, and Over/Under records for both teams, along with current betting lines and detailed line movement histories for multiple leading sports books.

 

Win-Loss Trends

Record APB adv WIN
Season 17-15 19-13
Streak W4 W3
vs Division 1 17-15 17-13
vs TR Top 25 0-1 0-0
vs TR Top 50 0-5 0-1
vs TR Top 100 0-9 0-4
vs Conference 17-4 15-6
vs Non-Conference 0-11 2-7
Last 5 Games 4-1 3-2
Last 10 Games 9-1 7-3
Away/Neutral 9-14 7-11
Last 5 Away/Neutral 4-1 2-3
Last 10 Away/Neutral 7-3 6-4

Against Vegas Spread (ATS) Trends

Record APB adv WIN
Season 1-4-0 2-2-0
Streak W1 W2
vs Division 1 1-4-0 2-2-0
vs TR Top 25 0-0-0 0-0-0
vs TR Top 50 0-0-0 0-0-0
vs TR Top 100 0-0-0 0-0-0
vs Conference 1-4-0 2-1-0
vs Non-Conference 0-0-0 0-1-0
Last 5 Games 1-3-0 2-1-0
Last 10 Games 1-3-0 2-2-0
Away/Neutral 1-4-0 2-1-0
Last 5 Away/Neutral 1-3-0 2-1-0
Last 10 Away/Neutral 1-4-0 2-1-0
 

Ark Pine Bl Season Performance

Date Opponent Power Score
11/13 at Colorado (15-15) #91 L 72-88
11/15 at Denver (17-12) #192 L 56-75
11/18 at TX El Paso (24-5) #39 L 52-70
11/27 at Akron (22-9) #97 L 65-68
11/30 at Arizona St (22-9) #59 L 57-74
12/05 at Michigan (14-16) #95 L 53-67
12/13 at Oklahoma St (21-9) #32 L 66-81
12/16 at GA Tech (19-11) #41 L 53-65
12/19 at Missouri (22-9) #31 L 70-88
12/21 at Kansas St (24-6) #6 L 76-90
12/28 at Oregon (15-15) #120 L 53-73
01/04 at Miss Val St (9-22) #331 W 69-68
01/09 at Alab A&M (11-15) #329 W 82-72
01/11 at Alabama St (15-14) #294 L 73-75
01/16 Southern (5-25) #345 W 64-51
01/18 Alcorn State (2-29) #347 W 93-59
01/23 at Prairie View (16-13) #308 W 62-54
01/25 at TX Southern (15-15) #287 L 67-70
01/30 Grambling St (6-20) #344 W 92-69
02/01 Jackson St (19-11) #257 L 67-72
02/06 Alab A&M (11-15) #329 W 62-55
02/08 Alabama St (15-14) #294 W 47-42
02/13 at Southern (5-25) #345 W 66-62
02/15 at Alcorn State (2-29) #347 W 59-45
02/20 Prairie View (16-13) #308 W 57-55
02/22 TX Southern (15-15) #287 W 57-53
02/27 at Grambling St (6-20) #344 W 68-56
03/01 at Jackson St (19-11) #257 L 54-57
03/04 Miss Val St (9-22) #331 W 84-68
03/10 vs Miss Val St (9-22) #331 W 69-66
03/12 vs Alabama St (15-14) #294 W 46-44
03/13 vs TX Southern (15-15) #287 W 50-38

Winthrop Season Performance

Date Opponent Power Score
11/17 at Col Charlestn (20-10) #131 L 57-69
11/21 SC Upstate (6-23) #291 W 49-46
11/23 at Clemson (21-9) #34 L 66-102
11/30 at App State (20-11) #121 L 51-70
12/03 Radford (18-11) #209 L 59-61
12/05 High Point (15-14) #270 W 82-68
12/16 at SC Upstate (6-23) #291 W 62-53
12/20 Charlotte (19-11) #80 L 47-57
12/22 at Cincinnati (16-14) #52 L 57-74
12/29 at NC State (17-14) #65 L 52-68
01/02 at Coastal Car (26-5) #152 L 47-57
01/04 at Charl South (13-16) #289 L 54-57
01/07 VA Military (10-18) #322 W 96-63
01/09 Liberty (15-15) #254 W 65-62
01/16 at Presbyterian (5-26) #328 W 56-42
01/21 at NC-Asheville (13-15) #246 L 53-66
01/23 at Gard-Webb (8-21) #326 W 65-45
01/28 Charl South (13-16) #289 W 55-53
01/30 Coastal Car (26-5) #152 W 67-64
02/04 at Liberty (15-15) #254 W 67-43
02/06 at VA Military (10-18) #322 W 87-83
02/13 Presbyterian (5-26) #328 W 66-53
02/16 Gard-Webb (8-21) #326 W 69-64
02/20 at E Kentucky (20-11) #181 L 57-77
02/23 NC-Asheville (13-15) #246 W 68-65
02/25 at High Point (15-14) #270 L 66-71
02/27 at Radford (18-11) #209 L 52-54
03/02 Liberty (15-15) #254 W 80-72
03/04 vs Radford (18-11) #209 W 61-46
03/06 at Coastal Car (26-5) #152 W 64-53
 

Ark Pine Bl played in no recent NCAA games.
Ark Pine Bl has not played in any NCAA
tournament games in the past 12 years.

Ark Pine Bl Tournament History

Date Opponent Score Spread
No tournament history 1998-2009

Winthrop played in 9 recent NCAA games.
They outperformed expectations in 3 games.
They underperformed expectations in 6 games.

Winthrop Tournament History

2008: #13 Seed, East Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #4 Wash State L by 31 +10.0
2007: #11 Seed, Midwest Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #6 Notre Dame W by 10 +3.5
R2 #3 Oregon L by 14 +2.5
2006: #15 Seed, East Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #2 Tennessee L by 2 +6.5
2005: #14 Seed, West Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #3 Gonzaga L by 10 +13.5
2002: #16 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #1 Duke L by 47 +33.5
2001: #16 Seed, Midwest Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
#16 NW State L by 4 +3.5
2000: #14 Seed, West Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #3 Oklahoma L by 24 +15.5
1999: #16 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #1 Auburn L by 39 +29.0
 

Offense
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic APB adv WIN APB adv WIN APB adv WIN
Points 64.4 62.6 60.6 64.6 62.5 59.7
1st Half Pts 29.2 28.7 27.0 30.0 28.0 28.6
2nd Half Pts 34.3 33.3 33.6 34.6 34.0 31.1
Avg Score Margin -0.3 +0.6 +6.0 +5.4 -4.7 -3.1
FGM 21.6 22.6 18.2 22.0 21.3 21.6
FGA 52.5 58.8 45.2 54.2 53.0 57.1
3PM 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.1 2.8
3PA 13.5 15.1 12.8 13.0 13.0 12.8
FTM 17.1 13.3 19.8 16.4 15.7 13.6
FTA 25.8 20.8 30.0 23.0 23.9 20.9

Defense
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic APB adv WIN APB adv WIN APB adv WIN
Opp Points 64.7 61.9 54.6 59.2 67.2 62.8
Opp 1st Half Pts 29.7 28.2 23.4 26.0 30.8 30.2
Opp 2nd Half Pts 34.2 33.2 31.2 33.2 35.8 32.6
Opp FGM 20.6 21.4 17.0 20.0 21.3 21.7
Opp FGA 50.6 52.8 49.4 55.0 51.1 52.1
Opp 3PM 5.1 5.5 3.8 3.2 5.3 5.4
Opp 3PA 15.4 18.6 15.0 17.2 16.0 18.3
Opp FTM 18.5 13.7 16.8 16.0 19.3 13.9
Opp FTA 27.9 20.4 27.8 24.0 28.4 21.7
Blocks 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.6 3.0 3.1

Rebounding
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic APB adv WIN APB adv WIN APB adv WIN
Off Rebounds 10.6 11.9 9.2 8.6 10.3 11.7
Def Rebounds 23.4 23.3 23.8 24.2 22.7 22.3
Team Rebounds 4.0 3.1 4.4 3.2 4.0 2.9
Opp Off Rebounds 8.1 9.2 9.2 12.4 8.3 10.2
Opp Def Rebounds 20.7 24.9 20.4 23.4 21.1 24.2
Opp Team Rebounds 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.4 2.7 2.5

Ball Handling
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic APB adv WIN APB adv WIN APB adv WIN
Assists 12.5 10.8 11.4 11.4 10.8 9.8
Turnovers 16.8 12.0 15.8 11.2 16.4 12.6
Steals 6.8 8.7 6.6 7.2 6.4 8.1
Personal Fouls 22.8 19.0 23.4 20.2 23.2 19.4
Opp Assists 11.7 12.1 8.6 9.4 11.7 13.0
Opp Turnovers 13.9 15.0 13.2 13.0 12.9 14.9
Opp Steals 7.9 6.2 8.4 5.4 7.7 6.4
Opp Personal Fouls 21.0 18.0 24.6 18.0 20.4 18.0
 

Team Power Ratings

Rating APB adv WIN
Overall 94.4 (#244) 98.3 (#200)
Predictive 95.1 (#253) 97.9 (#211)
Last 10 Games 96.9 (#215) 99.9 (#176)
Away Games 93.4 (#258) 97.0 (#225)
Conference Games 94.7 (#245) 99.4 (#188)
Non-Conf Games 92.1 (#277) 94.1 (#254)
Schedule Strength 94.6 (#315) 97.1 (#254)

Conference Power Ratings

Rating SWAC adv BIG SO.
Overall 86.5 93.1
Predictive 89.6 94.2
Last 10 Games 86.9 93.0
Away Games 86.8 93.2
Non-Conf Games 85.9 92.5
Schedule Strength 92.3 95.7
 

Ark Pine Bl Injuries

Name Pos Status
Ark Pine Bl has no reported injuries at this time.

Winthrop Injuries

Name Pos Status
Winthrop has no reported injuries at this time.