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#8 California vs. #9 Louisville

First Round | Friday, Mar 19 | 9:45 PM ET | Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena | Jacksonville, FL

Win Odds

Algorithmic Model CAL LOU
Power Ratings Model Analyzes each team's scoring margins and schedule strength. 60.4% 39.6%
Decision Tree Model Sophisticated forecasting model that incorporates dozens of stats. >60% <40%
Adjusted Scoring Margin Compares points scored and allowed to opponent averages. 63.0% 37.0%
Similar Games Model Based on results of past games between statistically similar teams. 53.9% 46.1%
Simulation Model Driven by advanced play-by-play computer simulation of game. 46.5% 53.5%
Seed Difference of 1 Historical tournament win odds for teams with seed difference of 1 48.4% 51.6%

Expected Win Margin

Algorithmic Model CAL LOU
Power Ratings Model Analyzes each team's scoring margins and schedule strength. +2.1 -2.1
Adjusted Scoring Margin Compares points scored and allowed to opponent averages. +2.8 -2.8
Similar Games Model Based on results of past games between statistically similar teams. +0.1 -0.1
Simulation Model Driven by advanced play-by-play computer simulation of game. -0.7 +0.7
Vegas Point Spread W by 1 L by 1

Prediction Summary
Algorithmic win odds projections indicate no clear favorite in this game, although it appears California may have a very slight edge.

Other Factors To Consider
Mathematical prediction models can't accurately assess every single aspect of a game, so here are some "fudge factors" to consider:

Strategy Tip
Picking smart upsets is all about taking the right risks. Underseeded teams with 35-50% win odds can often be great picks, especially in larger bracket pools.

 

Similar Games Analysis Model

Output CAL LOU
Win Odds -- --
Win Margin Upgrade to Bettor
Cover Odds Upgrade to Bettor
Over/Under Odds Upgrade to Bettor
Visit the My Predictive Algorithm section to customize predictions using the similar games model.

 

Predictive Power Ratings Model

Output CAL LOU
Win Odds -- --
Win Margin Upgrade to Bettor
To learn more about predictive power ratings and view the ratings of all Division 1 NCAA Basketball teams on one page, check out our NCAA basketball predictive rankings page.

 

Adjusted Scoring Margin Method

Output CAL LOU
Win Margin (Simple) Upgrade to Bettor
Win Margin (Advanced) Upgrade to Bettor
Final Score (Simple) Upgrade to Bettor
Final Score (Advanced) Upgrade to Bettor

 

 

Playing Style Advantage

Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 pts

Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game.

This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

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Possession Projections

Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with CAL LOU
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 27.5%
Player Fouled 24.0% 21.1%
Turnover 15.8% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL LOU
Shot Blocked 7.6% 2.0%
Offensive Rebound 34.4% 36.9%

Projected Box Score

CAL LOU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 58.7
Field Goal % 45.4% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 32.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 18.6
Free Throw % 76.8% 68.4%
Rebounds 33.1 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 12.7
Turnovers 11.1 11.1
Blocked Shots 1.1 4.4
Steals 5.0 5.7
Fouls 14.8 16.8
 

California Four Factors

Stat CAL Off LOU Def
Effective FG % 53.5% vs 48.5%
Off Rebound % 32.3% vs 34.1%
Turnover % 15.0% vs 18.4%
FTA/FGA 0.354 vs 0.410

Louisville Four Factors

Stat LOU Off CAL Def
Effective FG % 51.4% vs 48.3%
Off Rebound % 38.8% vs 29.7%
Turnover % 16.4% vs 16.0%
FTA/FGA 0.357 vs 0.334

California vs Louisville Efficiency

Stat CAL Off LOU Def
Possessions 69.8 vs 70.0
Off Efficiency 1.117 vs 0.998
Effective FG % 53.5% vs 48.5%
Two Point Rate 69.8% vs 67.8%
Three Point Rate 30.2% vs 32.2%
Free Throw Rate 26.0% vs 28.0%
Two Point % 52.2% vs 46.7%
Three Point % 37.7% vs 34.7%
Free Throw % 75.7% vs 70.1%
Points (2 pters) 42.5 vs 35.2
Points (3 pters) 19.9 vs 18.6
Off Rebound % 32.3% vs 34.1%
Def Rebound % 70.3% vs 61.2%
Block % 4.4% vs 3.6%
Steal % 7.2% vs 7.9%
Turnover % 15.0% vs 18.4%
Personal Foul % 21.3% vs 23.3%
Assists/FGM 0.522 vs 0.565

Louisville vs California Efficiency

Stat LOU Off adv CAL Def
Possessions 70.0 vs 69.8
Off Efficiency 1.085 vs 0.978
Effective FG % 51.4% vs 48.3%
Two Point Rate 60.4% vs 68.9%
Three Point Rate 39.6% vs 31.1%
Free Throw Rate 25.5% vs 24.0%
Two Point % 51.9% vs 48.5%
Three Point % 33.7% vs 31.9%
Free Throw % 70.1% vs 75.7%
Points (2 pters) 37.2 vs 38.1
Points (3 pters) 23.8 vs 16.9
Off Rebound % 38.8% vs 29.7%
Def Rebound % 65.9% vs 67.7%
Block % 7.4% vs 6.5%
Steal % 9.6% vs 7.0%
Turnover % 16.4% vs 16.0%
Personal Foul % 24.7% vs 22.0%
Assists/FGM 0.583 vs 0.505
Only Better and Bettor Pro subscribers have access to Odds & Line History

Tournament Bettor and Tournament Bettor Pro have access to our complete odds and line history. View summary splits of Straight Up, Against the Spread, and Over/Under records for both teams, along with current betting lines and detailed line movement histories for multiple leading sports books.

 

Win-Loss Trends

Record CAL adv LOU
Season 24-10 20-13
Streak W1 L2
vs Division 1 24-10 20-13
vs TR Top 25 0-4 2-5
vs TR Top 50 3-6 3-8
vs TR Top 100 8-8 8-12
vs Conference 15-6 11-8
vs Non-Conference 9-4 9-5
Last 5 Games 4-1 2-3
Last 10 Games 8-2 5-5
Away/Neutral 9-9 5-9
Last 5 Away/Neutral 4-1 2-3
Last 10 Away/Neutral 6-4 3-7

Against Vegas Spread (ATS) Trends

Record CAL adv LOU
Season 20-13-0 10-18-0
Streak W1 L2
vs Division 1 20-13-0 10-18-0
vs TR Top 25 0-4-0 3-4-0
vs TR Top 50 2-7-0 3-8-0
vs TR Top 100 6-10-0 6-14-0
vs Conference 13-8-0 7-12-0
vs Non-Conference 7-5-0 3-6-0
Last 5 Games 4-1-0 2-3-0
Last 10 Games 8-2-0 3-7-0
Away/Neutral 9-9-0 5-9-0
Last 5 Away/Neutral 4-1-0 1-4-0
Last 10 Away/Neutral 6-4-0 3-7-0
 

California Season Performance

Date Opponent Power Score
11/09 Murray St (31-5) #50 W 75-70
11/11 Detroit (20-14) #131 W 95-61
11/19 vs Syracuse (29-4) #4 L 73-95
11/20 vs Ohio State (28-7) #9 L 70-76
11/24 Jacksonville (20-13) #145 W 79-47
11/29 Princeton (21-8) #125 W 81-60
12/02 at New Mexico (30-5) #24 L 78-86
12/05 Iowa State (15-17) #79 W 82-63
12/09 at Pacific (20-11) #109 W 79-54
12/22 at Kansas (33-3) #1 L 69-84
12/28 Utah Val St (12-18) #332 W 85-51
12/29 UCSB (20-10) #115 W 87-66
01/02 Stanford (14-18) #119 W 92-66
01/06 UCLA (14-18) #113 L 75-76
01/09 USC (16-14) #89 W 67-59
01/14 at Wash State (16-15) #128 W 93-88
01/16 at Washington (26-9) #32 L 69-84
01/21 Oregon (16-16) #120 W 89-57
01/23 Oregon St (14-18) #142 W 65-61
01/28 at Arizona St (22-11) #65 W 78-70
01/31 at Arizona (16-15) #87 L 72-76
02/04 at USC (16-14) #89 L 63-66
02/06 at UCLA (14-18) #113 W 72-58
02/11 Washington (26-9) #32 W 93-81
02/13 Wash State (16-15) #128 W 86-70
02/18 at Oregon St (14-18) #142 L 64-80
02/20 at Oregon (16-16) #120 W 64-49
02/25 Arizona (16-15) #87 W 95-71
02/27 Arizona St (22-11) #65 W 62-46
03/06 at Stanford (14-18) #119 W 71-61
03/11 vs Oregon (16-16) #120 W 90-74
03/12 vs UCLA (14-18) #113 W 85-72
03/13 vs Washington (26-9) #32 L 75-79
03/19 vs Louisville (20-13) #47 W 77-62

Louisville Season Performance

Date Opponent Power Score
11/17 vs Arkansas (14-18) #132 W 96-66
11/21 E Tenn St (20-15) #160 W 69-56
11/22 Morgan St (27-10) #147 W 90-81
11/23 App State (22-12) #112 W 80-53
11/28 at UNLV (25-9) #45 L 71-76
12/02 Stetson (7-22) #324 W 80-48
12/05 Charlotte (19-12) #86 L 65-87
12/12 W Carolina (22-11) #146 L 83-91
12/16 Oral Roberts (20-13) #134 W 94-57
12/19 W Kentucky (21-13) #150 W 102-75
12/23 LA Lafayette (13-17) #235 W 84-69
12/27 Radford (19-12) #211 W 79-53
12/30 S Florida (20-13) #68 W 73-52
01/02 at Kentucky (34-2) #2 L 62-71
01/06 at Providence (12-19) #118 W 92-70
01/09 St Johns (17-16) #67 W 75-68
01/11 Villanova (25-8) #13 L 84-92
01/16 at Pittsburgh (25-8) #22 L 77-82
01/21 at Seton Hall (19-13) #57 L 77-80
01/24 Cincinnati (19-15) #55 W 68-60
01/30 at W Virginia (28-6) #6 L 74-77
02/01 Connecticut (18-15) #59 W 82-69
02/06 Rutgers (15-17) #127 W 76-60
02/11 at St Johns (17-16) #67 L 55-74
02/14 at Syracuse (29-4) #4 W 66-60
02/17 Notre Dame (23-12) #39 W 91-89
02/20 at DePaul (8-23) #200 W 68-59
02/23 Georgetown (23-11) #21 L 60-70
02/28 at Connecticut (18-15) #59 W 78-76
03/02 at Marquette (22-12) #31 L 48-69
03/06 Syracuse (29-4) #4 W 78-68
03/10 vs Cincinnati (19-15) #55 L 66-69
03/19 vs California (24-10) #29 L 62-77
 

California played in 7 recent NCAA games.
They outperformed expectations in 2 games.
They underperformed expectations in 5 games.

California Tournament History

2009: #7 Seed, West Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #10 Maryland L by 13 -1.0
2006: #7 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #10 NC State L by 6 +1.5
2003: #8 Seed, East Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #9 NC State W by 2 +1.0
R2 #1 Oklahoma L by 9 +7.5
2002: #6 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #11 U Penn W by 7 -5.0
R2 #3 Pittsburgh L by 13 +3.5
2001: #8 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #9 Fresno St L by 12 -2.0

Louisville played in 20 recent NCAA games.
They outperformed expectations in 8 games.
They underperformed expectations in 11 games.

Louisville Tournament History

2009: #1 Seed, Midwest Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #16 Morehead St W by 20 -21.5
R2 #9 Siena W by 7 -12.0
S16 #12 Arizona W by 39 -9.5
E8 #2 Michigan St L by 12 -6.5
2008: #3 Seed, East Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #14 Boise State W by 18 -14.0
R2 #6 Oklahoma W by 30 -7.0
S16 #2 Tennessee W by 19 -2.0
E8 #1 N Carolina L by 10 +5.5
2007: #6 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #11 Stanford W by 20 -5.5
R2 #3 Texas A&M L by 3 +2.5
2005: #4 Seed, West Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #13 LA Lafayette W by 6 -11.5
R2 #5 GA Tech W by 22 -1.0
S16 #1 Washington W by 14 -1.5
E8 #7 W Virginia W by 8 -8.0
F4 #1 Illinois L by 15 +3.0
2004: #10 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #7 Xavier L by 10 -2.0
2003: #4 Seed, East Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #13 Austin Peay W by 22 -15.5
R2 #12 Butler L by 8 -7.5
2000: #7 Seed, West Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #10 Gonzaga L by 11 (Pick)
1999: #7 Seed, South Region
Rd Opponent Result Spread
R1 #10 Creighton L by 4 -4.5
 

Offense
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU
Points 77.9 75.9 79.6 66.4 74.6 70.9
1st Half Pts 37.1 35.9 38.8 32.8 35.9 32.9
2nd Half Pts 40.5 39.1 40.8 33.6 38.6 37.4
Avg Score Margin +9.7 +6.1 +10.0 -5.4 +1.6 -1.0
FGM 27.9 26.5 27.8 25.6 26.1 25.7
FGA 58.2 59.4 56.2 59.2 57.9 58.4
3PM 6.6 7.9 7.0 8.8 7.5 8.3
3PA 17.6 23.5 16.8 24.0 19.5 23.1
FTM 15.6 14.9 17.0 6.4 14.8 11.1
FTA 20.6 21.2 20.4 10.0 19.6 17.1

Defense
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU
Opp Points 68.2 69.8 69.6 71.8 73.0 71.9
Opp 1st Half Pts 32.2 32.9 34.8 37.2 35.4 35.2
Opp 2nd Half Pts 35.7 35.8 34.8 34.6 37.6 35.7
Opp FGM 24.7 23.8 25.6 25.0 25.9 24.8
Opp FGA 56.9 55.5 57.8 57.8 57.3 55.4
Opp 3PM 5.6 6.2 6.2 5.6 6.1 4.9
Opp 3PA 17.7 17.9 17.6 16.0 18.1 15.8
Opp FTM 13.2 16.0 12.2 16.2 15.2 17.4
Opp FTA 19.0 22.8 16.2 22.4 20.9 24.9
Blocks 2.5 4.1 3.0 4.0 2.2 3.8

Rebounding
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU
Off Rebounds 9.6 13.3 7.4 9.8 9.1 11.7
Def Rebounds 22.4 21.7 21.0 20.2 21.3 20.1
Team Rebounds 3.7 1.9 4.2 2.4 3.9 2.6
Opp Off Rebounds 9.5 11.2 9.2 12.8 9.6 11.4
Opp Def Rebounds 20.0 20.9 19.0 23.4 21.7 20.7
Opp Team Rebounds 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.6 3.9

Ball Handling
Season Last 5 Games Away/Neutral

Statistic CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU CAL adv LOU
Assists 14.5 15.5 13.6 16.6 13.7 14.6
Turnovers 11.9 13.6 10.6 13.6 12.8 14.0
Steals 5.7 7.8 6.6 8.8 5.9 7.1
Personal Fouls 16.9 20.1 15.6 18.2 18.1 21.4
Opp Assists 12.5 13.5 11.2 14.6 13.1 15.5
Opp Turnovers 12.7 15.0 11.8 14.2 12.6 13.1
Opp Steals 5.6 6.6 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.9
Opp Personal Fouls 17.4 19.4 18.6 13.4 17.4 17.6
 

Team Power Ratings

Rating CAL adv LOU
Overall 112.7 (#29) 110.5 (#47)
Predictive 111.1 (#19) 109.1 (#40)
Last 10 Games 114.2 (#23) 111.0 (#47)
Away Games 110.6 (#45) 111.7 (#33)
Conference Games 111.7 (#41) 112.4 (#37)
Non-Conf Games 115.1 (#19) 105.6 (#95)
Schedule Strength 106.2 (#39) 107.2 (#14)

Conference Power Ratings

Rating PAC-10 adv BIG EAST
Overall 106.4 111.4
Predictive 105.5 109.2
Last 10 Games 106.4 111.2
Away Games 106.4 111.6
Non-Conf Games 106.8 111.7
Schedule Strength 104.5 107.3
 

California Injuries

Name Pos Status
Omondi Amoke F QUESTIONABLE 03.20.2010: Amoke did not play Friday against Louisville after being suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules.
Harper Kamp F OUT 01.23.2010: Kamp has redshirted due to a knee injury and so he can save a year of eligibility.
Bak Bak F OUT 01.20.2010: Bak will miss the remainder of the season due to a shoulder injury.

Louisville Injuries

Name Pos Status
Louisville has no reported injuries at this time.