2 Upset Predictions For The First Round Of The NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

April 9, 2012 - by David Hess

Judging by the emails we get, a lot of you enjoy taking in a hockey game every now and then. Every sport is more exciting during the playoffs, when stakes are high and effort is at a maximum, but perhaps no sport benefits from the increased drama and intensity as much as the NHL.

While we don’t cover the NHL in the same way we do baseball, football, or basketball, we can still apply our power ratings to the results of the games in order to come up with some Stanley Cup Playoff predictions.

The seedings for the playoffs were finalized Saturday, with the Vancouver Canucks edging out the New York Rangers and the St. Louis Blues for the Presidents’ Trophy — and along with it, home ice advantage throughout the playoffs.

This is Vancouver’s second straight year as the top point winners in the NHL; last year they parlayed the achievement into a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals, where they lost to the Boston Bruins. The Bruins were the third seed from the Eastern Conference, but many power ratings placed Boston as the true best team in the East.

This year, we applied a modified version of our power ratings method to the NHL in order to produce power ratings for all the Stanley Cup Playoff teams. According to those ratings, the St. Louis Blues will be taking on Boston’s old role of underrated division winner.

However, it’s important to note that the top teams are bunched tightly together — the difference between #1 St. Louis and #7 Nashville is small enough that Nashville would be a slight favorite in a home game against the Blues.

2012 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Team Ratings

Seed	Team	Win-Loss	Rating	Win% vs Avg Team	SOS
W2	St Louis	49-33	1.63	61.9%	-0.002
E4	Pittsburgh	51-31	1.59	61.4%	-0.005
E2	Boston	49-33	1.56	60.9%	-0.012
W5	Detroit	48-34	1.53	60.5%	0.000
W1	Vancouver	51-31	1.53	60.5%	-0.010
E1	NY Rangers	51-31	1.41	58.6%	-0.004
W4	Nashville	48-34	1.34	57.3%	0.002
E5	Philadelphia	47-35	1.32	56.9%	0.000
E6	New Jersey	48-34	1.21	54.8%	-0.001
W7	San Jose	43-39	1.17	53.8%	0.001
W3	Phoenix	42-40	1.16	53.7%	0.002
W8	Los Angeles	40-42	1.15	53.4%	0.002
E8	Ottawa	41-41	1.03	50.8%	-0.004
W6	Chicago	45-37	1.03	50.8%	0.006
E7	Washington	42-40	0.96	49.1%	-0.006
E3	Florida	38-44	0.77	43.4%	-0.005

Using these ratings along with the NHL home/away playoff structure, we can calculate the odds of any outcome for the first round series. Each chart below shows the overall win odds for the series in the title, and the odds of each specific outcome — Home team in 4 games, Away team in 6 games, etc — below.

There are two upsets predicted by the ratings.

First, #6 New Jersey is expected to upend #3 Florida. The Panthers played in a weak division, and faced an easier-than-average schedule. Yet they still managed to win only 38 games (against 44 losses), and were outscored by 24 goals on the season. The Devils, on the other hand, won 10 more games against a more difficult schedule. The Panthers do have home ice advantage, but they are rated so far behind the Devils that New Jersey appears to be a very solid favorite.

The other upset forecast by the ratings is #5 Detroit over #4 Nashville. Upon first glance, these teams seem very evenly matched. Both are from the same division, and went 48-34 against similar schedules. The main difference in performance was that the Red Wings outscored their opponents by 45 goals, compared to only 27 for the Predators.

Eastern: #1 New York Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators

Predicted Winner: #1 New York Rangers (68%)
Most Likely Outcome: Rangers in 6 (22%)

Eastern: #2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Predicted Winner: #2 Boston Bruins (76%)
Most Likely Outcome: Bruins in 6 (23%)

Eastern: #3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Predicted Winner: #6 New Jersey Devils (72%)
Most Likely Outcome: Devils in 5 (24%)

Eastern: #4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers

Predicted Winner: #4 Pittsburgh Penguins (62%)
Most Likely Outcome: Penguins in 6 (20%)

Western: #1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Predicted Winner: #1 Vancouver Canucks (67%)
Most Likely Outcome: Canucks in 6 (21%)

Western: #2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks

Predicted Winner: #2 St. Louis Blues (69%)
Most Likely Outcome: Blues in 6 (22%)

Western: #3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks

Predicted Winner: #3 Phoenix Coyotes (58%)
Most Likely Outcome: Coyotes in 6 (19%)

Western: #4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings

Predicted Winner: #5 Detroit Red Wings (56%)
Most Likely Outcome: Red Wings in 5 (17%)