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October 27, 2011 - by David Hess
Welcome to the Week 8 installment of our series of Survivor advice columns, where we use a data-driven strategy to get an edge in NFL Survivor contests. This post includes analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models and other relevant data.
This discussion below is also meant to complement our Survivor Predictor tool, which provides a grid view of win odds predictions by week, from now until the end of the season. This presentation of prediction data will help you quickly grasp the current week’s best Survivor pick options, and will explain our logic in making our official pick.
Our pick last week was the New Orleans Saints. They turned in a stellar performance, humiliating the Indianapolis Colts by a 62-7 score. So, that part went well.
Since we chose the second most popular team, there were really only two major upsets that we were rooting for — the St. Louis Rams over the Dallas Cowboys, and the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Baltimore Ravens.
The Jaguars obliged, knocking out 15% of remaining contestants. A couple other minor upsets eliminated a few more, and overall 19.4% of the Yahoo! public was tossed. Overall, not a bad week.
Time for the heart of our post, the table showing the factors that influence our decision.
Keep in mind the change we made last week — the Future Value column now shows the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or more. Previously it showed the number of games in which the team was expected to have win odds higher than the current week. (In other words, we’ve switched from relative future value to absolute future value):
Team Opponent Spread TR Odds Yahoo! Pick % Future Val Notes
New Orleans @ St Louis -13.5 73% 12.9% 2 PICKED
Baltimore vs Arizona -13.0 84% 28.9% 2 most popular
NY Giants vs Miami -10.0 90% 18.9% 0 best week?
Houston vs Jacksonville -9.5 84% 6.4% 3 PICKED
Tennessee vs Indianapolis -9.0 84% 8.8% 0 best week?
San Francisco vs Cleveland -9.0 81% 17.9% 8 save for future
Buffalo vs Washington -6.0 68% 2.0% 4
San Diego @ Kansas City -3.5 64% 0.5% 0 PICKED
Philadelphia vs Dallas -3.5 61% 0.2% 1
Carolina vs Minnesota -3.5 60% 0.6% 0 best week?
Detroit @ Denver -3.0 60% 1.6% 2
Cincinnati @ Seattle -3.0 56% 0.8% 3 PICKED
New England @ Pittsburgh -3.0 55% 0.1% 4 PICKED
Future Val = the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or greater, based on our NFL Survivor Tool.
Teams We Already Picked: Houston Texans (WIN), Pittsburgh Steelers (WIN), San Diego Chargers (WIN), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WIN), New England Patriots (WIN), Cincinnati Bengals (WIN), New Orleans Saints (WIN)
New Orleans Saints (@ St Louis Rams) — The Saints have the largest Vegas line of the week, but our models strongly disagree about how much of a mismatch this is. This seems to be partly a case of an overreaction by the public to last week’s blowout by the Saints. The Rams were only 14 point dogs when they played AT Green Bay two weeks ago. Now they’re HOME versus a worse team than the Packers, and the line only moves 0.5 points in their direction? Yes, the Rams have failed to cover the spread all year, so maybe Vegas is just way off on St. Louis. The point is not that the Saints shouldn’t be big favorites, just that given similar historical games, an upset isn’t as out of the question as some think. … OK, rant over. Given the line and our estimate of the win odds, the Saints are actually not as attractive as they might seem on first glance. New Orleans’ immediate EV is actually worse than Baltimore’s even though fewer people are choosing the Saints. On the other hand, if you toss out our odds and go just by Vegas, the Saints are a better pick than Baltimore, due to that lower public pick percentage. We’ve already used them, so they’re out of the picture for us, but if you still have them in reserve, they’re a reasonable pick, especially if you weigh the Vegas lines heavily, but we’d pass.
Baltimore Ravens (vs Arizona Cardinals) — Baltimore’s line is a hair behind that of the Saints, and they’re also the most popular choice. We think the Ravens are safer than New Orleans in terms of making it to next week, but the high public pick percentage lowers their immediate expected value (EV) quite a bit. They’re not a horrible pick, but we’d rather avoid the crowd and root for the upset, plus conserve their future value for later.
New York Giants (vs Miami Dolphins) — They have only the third biggest line of the week, but our models actually project the Giants with the highest win odds, at 90%. They are the second most popular team this week, but that only translates to about 19% of the public choosing them. Given our optimistic projection, we have the Giants with the highest immediate EV of the week. Combine that with the fact that this is the easiest game they have left, and they’d be a very good choice.
Houston Texans (vs Jacksonville Jaguars) — Houston is a solid favorite according to both Vegas and our models, but they have more future value than just about any other option besides Baltimore and San Francisco. We don’t want to sacrifice current win odds and future value, so they’re a pass. (Plus, we already picked them.)
Tennessee Titans (vs Indianapolis Colts) — It’s not every day that a team loses by 34 points at home, then the very next week is favored by 9. Of course, it’s not every day that a team’s opponent lost by 55 the week before. Their numbers are very similar to Houston’s across the board, with one very important exception — this is probably the best week to use them. They are a good choice, especially in huge pools, where you need to last all 17 weeks, and where rooting for huge upsets is more important.
San Francisco 49ers (vs Cleveland Browns) — There’s really only one important number here: the ‘8’ in the Future Value column. In a week with so many good options, it would be foolish to burn the 49ers. On top of that, they’re nearly tied for second most popular, despite there being several safer picks. This clearly a situation where we need to bust out the STAY AWAY label.
Buffalo Bills (vs Washington Redskins) — We’ve just dropped into the second tier, in terms of likelihood of an upset. If you give equal weight to the Vegas line and our odds, all the above teams fall in the 80% to 85% win range. With Buffalo, we’re down around 70%. And they’re the only team in this tier, as no other line is bigger than -3.5, and no other TR Odds are above 64%. So, should you consider them? We’d recommend against it. They have several easier games in the future, so the only plus is that only 2% of the public is picking them. That’s not enough of a reason to give up so much in terms of win odds, so they’re also a STAY AWAY, along with any team not covered here.
There are basically five reasonable choices this week. San Francisco is out because of their high future value, while any team listed below them in the table is out because they are unnecessarily risky.
Out of the rest, each have pros and cons. The Ravens and Saints are the safest according the Vegas. The Giants are the safest according to our models. The Titans and Texans have the lowest public pick percentages, so you can root for more upsets. And the Titans and Giants have the least future value.
Note which two teams were named twice in that paragraph: the Giants and Titans. Not so coincidentally, those are our top two choices this week. The full rank would go:
1. New York Giants
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Houston Texans
That’s for a large pool, where we expect the contest to last all the way to the end. If your pool has under 20 people left, then chances are good it could be finished early. In that case, future value becomes less important, and picking the Titans becomes much less attractive.
Of course, as always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section.
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