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October 13, 2011 - by David Hess
Welcome to the Week 6 installment of our series of Survivor advice columns, where we use a data-driven strategy to get an edge in NFL Survivor contests. This post includes analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models and other relevant data.
This discussion below is also meant to complement our Survivor Predictor tool, which provides a grid view of win odds predictions by week, from now until the end of the season. This presentation of prediction data will help you quickly grasp the current week’s best Survivor pick options, and will explain our logic in making our official pick.
36-25! All hail the Seattle Seahawks!
Our strategy had an awesome week, and if you followed our advice, your chances of winning your pool more than quadrupled Sunday.
Seattle toppled the New York Giants in a sloppy turnover-fest this weekend, and in the process knocked out roughly 70% of most Survivor pools. At least one commenter told us he already won his pool, as every other player picked New York.
We advised players to stay away from the Giants, so that they could reap the benefits if just such a crazy upset occurred. It’s a strategy we try to employ most weeks, and it finally paid off on Sunday.
A couple of other minor upsets (Oakland Raiders over Houston Texans, and Kansas City Chiefs over Indianapolis Colts) also took down a few players, and altogether over 77% of Yahoo! Survivor contestants were eliminated.
Our official choice, the New England Patriots, did what was necessary against the New York Jets. We’re obviously bummed to have burnt the Pats, but it was worth it to avoid picking the Giants.
Time for the heart of our post, the table showing the factors that influence our decision.
We’ve made one change this week. The Future Value column now shows the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or more. Previously it showed the number of games in which the team was expected to have win odds higher than the current week. (In other words, we’ve switched from relative future value to absolute future value):
Team Opponent Spread TR Odds Yahoo! Pick % Future Val Notes
Green Bay vs St Louis -14.5 87% 28.4% 7 easiest game?
Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville -12.5 82% 15.9% 3 USED
Baltimore vs Houston -9.0 77% 3.1% 6
Cincinnati vs Indianapolis -7.0 80% 4.6% 3
NY Jets vs Miami -7.0 80% 27.3% 2 still get KC at home
New England vs Dallas -7.0 75% 4.1% 7 USED
Oakland vs Cleveland -6.5 77% 8.0% 3
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay -4.5 68% 1.7% 6
Atlanta vs Carolina -4.0 63% 2.8% 0
Detroit vs San Francisco -4.0 59% 0.8% 4
NY Giants vs Buffalo -3.0 63% 0.1% 0
Chicago vs Minnesota -3.0 51% 1.6% 0
Philadelphia @ Washington -1.0 47% 0.5% 0
Washington vs Philadelphia +1.0 53% 0.4% 0
Future Val = the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or greater, based on our NFL Survivor Tool.
Teams We Already Picked: Houston Texans (W), Pittsburgh Steelers (W), San Diego Chargers (W), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (W), New England Patriots (W)
Green Bay Packers (vs St. Louis Rams) — The positives for the Packers are obvious. They are the biggest favorite of the week and have the highest TR win odds. Plus, the Rams are the worst team in the league according to our standard NFL predictive power ratings and our new beta NFL power rankings, meaning this is likely the easiest game all season for Green Bay. The negatives are also obvious — the Pack have a ton of future value and would be our best option in weeks 10 and 11, plus they’re the most popular pick this week. Their 28.4% pick rate isn’t super high for a team facing such an easy matchup, though, so they are definitely a viable selection.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Jacksonville Jaguars) — Their status this week is also easy to ferret out. They are second in Vegas line and TR win odds, and third in public pick percentage, but are only being picked by roughly half as many people as Green Bay, plus have much less future value. Their easiest future games are in Weeks 14 and 16, which means A) a lot could change before then, and B) they could be resting their starters for the later week, meaning the win odds projection may not be very accurate. The Steelers are a very attractive choice this week. Unfortunately, we’ve already used them.
Baltimore Ravens (vs Houston Texans) — We’re dropping down to the second tier (along with the Bengals, Jets, and Patriots) in terms of Vegas line and TR win odds. Baltimore also has nearly as much future value as Green Bay. Their only advantage over the Packers is that they are only being picked by 3% of the public. There are other good options, so we’ll save them for the future.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs Indianapolis Colts) — This is intriguing. Cincy looks very similar to Baltimore. They have a lower Vegas line (-7 versus -9), but their higher TR win odds roughly balance that out. In fact, two of our three models even give the Bengals higher win odds than the Steelers. Their low future value makes them preferable to the Ravens, in our eyes, and nearly on par with Pittsburgh.
New York Jets (vs Miami Dolphins) — The profile of the Jets this week looks nearly identical to that of the Bengals … with one HUGE exception — they are the second most popular team, with their public pick percentage of 27% just a hair behind that of Green Bay. This is an easy STAY AWAY call. Save the Jets for when they host Kansas City, and hope that Miami can pull off the upset and knock out a quarter of your pool.
New England Patriots (vs Dallas Cowboys) — The Patriots have far too much future value to use them this week. There other teams that have similar profiles — in terms of Vegas line, TR win odds, and public pick percentage — with much less future value (Cincy, Oakland).
Oakland Raiders (vs Cleveland Browns) — The most attractive thing about the Raiders is their lack of future value — though they do still get to host Kansas City. However, they are a tick behind the Bengals and Ravens in terms of Vegas line and TR win odds, and are being picked by more people. If you have somehow used Cincy, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and the Packers already, Oakland is a good choice, but they should only be used as a last resort.
Better choice for those who haven’t used them yet: Pittsburgh Steelers over Jacksonville Jaguars
This week was a very tough choice. For us, it basically came down to two options — the Bengals or the Packers. The Steelers are probably an even better choice, but we’ve already used them.
Despite being the most-picked team this week, Green Bay is the pick that maximizes your immediate expected value (EV). This is value we discussed last week when we made the New England Survivor EV table — it takes into account both win odds and public pick percentage to figure out how many people will likely be left in the pool with you, should your choice survive.
So many players chose the Giants in Week 5 that picking any team other than them was a good idea. That’s not true for the Packers this week. There are enough contestants taking the Jets, Steelers, Raiders, and others that a decent chunk is likely to be eliminated, and attempting to secure your survival with the Packers is a smart choice.
However, there is an unaccounted-for factor that is pushing us off Green Bay: they have a ton of future value. There are two alternative choices that come close the immediate EV of the Packers, but have less future value — the Bengals and Steelers.
While both teams are a ways behind Green Bay in terms of the Vegas line, our models are telling us that the line for Packers-Rams is the least efficient one of the week — St. Louis +14.5 is our most confident ATS pick this week. Our TR win odds show less of a disparity between Green Bay and Cincy/Pitt than Vegas does.
This leads us to believe that the small amount of immediate EV that we’re giving up by choosing the Steelers or Bengals is outweighed by the fact that we get so save the Packers for the future. Because we’ve already used the Steelers, our choice is Cincinnati. But Pittsburgh is also a fine choice.
To be clear, Green Bay is not a bad choice this week, and it’s a very tough choice. The dynamics of your specific pool could very easily swing the decision over to Green Bay. Here are a few specific cases.
If your pool has very few people left (under 15): It’s less likely that everyone will last until Week 17, so future value is much less of a concern. In that case, the Packers become a more attractive choice, and we’d take them over Cincy or Pittsburgh.
If your pool hasn’t had many people pick the Packers yet: Roughly 60% of Yahoo! contestants have already used the Packers heading into this week. If the numbers for your pools are much lower, then even more people will likely be picking the Pack this week, so the Bengals and Steelers become even better choices.
If your pool still has 20% or more of the original contestants remaining: This means your opponents are doing better than average, so they probably are using strategies similar to ours. That means fewer people will be picking the Packers, and they become a better choice for you.
The bottom line is, there are three choices that stand out for us. In rough order, we’d rank them Pittsburgh, then Cincinnati, then Green Bay. But any of them are fine choices. If you want to play it safe, take Green Bay. If you trust Vegas odds more than our own, avoid Cincy. If your pool still has hundreds of people left, take Cincy and hope the other two fall in upsets.
As always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section.
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