Week 15 NFL Survivor Strategy: There Are Other Fish In The Sea Notes from the Sports Nerds

Week 15 NFL Survivor Strategy: There Are Other Fish In The Sea

79 comments - NFL, NFL Survivor Pools - posted by David Hess on December 12, 2012

Welcome to the Week 15 installment of our NFL Survivor contest advice column. We apply a data-driven strategy to get an edge in Survivor pools, using analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models, public picking trends, future team schedules, and other data. This article presents our preliminary Survivor pick of the week; we publish our final, official pick on Fridays.

When it rains, it pours.

After our 29-game regular season winning streak came to a close last week, we’re now on a 2-game losing streak. Hopefully we’re getting all the bad mojo out of our system now, in one big burst.

Do we regret switching off our Wednesday pick of Cleveland? Well, based on the results, sure, a little. But given the closing lines (-350 for the Steelers, -305 for the Browns), Pittsburgh still seems like the smarter choice. Sometimes you make the right choice and get the wrong result.

And there is one silver lining here. Given that we were going to lose in Week 14 anyway, we can stop kicking ourselves over flipping the Week 13 pick from Denver to Detroit.

For those of you who survived, Week 14 was a fairly uneventful week. There were several minor upsets, but none knocked out more than a few percent of the public. Overall 13% of your opponents likely bit the dust, slightly boosting your chunk of the pie.

Week 15 NFL Survivor Decision Factors

This is the heart of our column, the table showing the factors that influence our weekly Survivor pick decision. For every team, here are the three questions we ask ourselves (and the data in our table that helps us answer them):

1. How likely are they to win? (consensus sportsbook Spread at -110 payout odds, Pinnacle Money Line, and TR Odds from our NFL win picks page)

2. How popular is this team? (Public Pick % from OfficeFootballPool)

3. Should I save this team for later? (Future Value: a quick rating created by giving 1 point for a future game that’s among the safest of the week, and a half a point for a game that seems borderline playable, with only partial credit for games in Week 16 or 17 when teams may be resting players. Based on averaging projections from our NFL Survivor Tool [which uses data from only this season] and our NFL Season Projections [which incorporates our preseason team projections].)

Teams are listed in order of how attractive we think they are as a choice this week. They’re also separated into rough tiers. If two teams are in the same tier, you may want to choose among them based on which pros and cons are more important to your particular situation.

Team	Opponent	Spread	Money Line	TR Odds	Pick %	Future Val
Tier 1: Top Options
Houston	vs Indianapolis	-8.5	-385 / +334	77%	4.6%	0.6
Cincinnati	at Philadelphia	-4.5	-209 / +187	66%	2.0%	0.0
Seattle	vs Buffalo	-5.5	-240 / +214	66%	4.8%	0.3
Tier 2: Worth A Look
New England	vs San Francisco	-5.0	-243 / +217	70%	1.6%	0.9
New Orleans	vs Tampa Bay	-3.5	-192 / +173	60%	4.8%	0.0
Detroit	at Arizona	-6.0	-238 / +212	65%	20.4%	0.0
Oakland	vs Kansas City	-3.0	-157 / +142	60%	2.5%	0.0
San Diego	vs Carolina	-3.0	-150 / +136	61%	1.1%	0.3
Miami	vs Jacksonville	-7.0	-315 / +277	73%	54.1%	0.0
Tier 3: AVOID
Atlanta	vs NY Giants	-2.0	-125 / +113	54%	0.0%	0.0
Green Bay	at Chicago	-3.0	-150 / +130	59%	0.3%	0.8
Pittsburgh	at Dallas	-2.0	-121 / +110	52%	0.1%	0.0
St Louis	vs Minnesota	-3.0	-139 / +126	48%	0.8%	0.0
Denver	at Baltimore	-2.5	-140 / +127	61%	0.1%	1.1
Tennessee	vs NY Jets	-2.0	-123 / +111	51%	0.6%	0.3
Washington	at Cleveland	-1.0	-130 / +111	49%	1.1%	0.4

Teams We’ve Already Used (Final Official Picks): Houston Texans (WIN), Cincinnati Bengals (WIN), Dallas Cowboys (WIN), Green Bay Packers (WIN), San Francisco 49ers (WIN), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WIN), Minnesota Vikings (WIN), Chicago Bears (WIN), Seattle Seahawks (WIN), Baltimore Ravens (WIN), Atlanta Falcons (WIN), New England Patriots (WIN), Detroit Lions (LOSS), Pittsburgh Steelers (LOSS)

Previous Wednesday Preliminary Picks: Houston Texans (WIN), New York Giants (WIN), Chicago Bears (WIN), Green Bay Packers (WIN), San Francisco 49ers (WIN), Arizona Cardinals (LOSS), Minnesota Vikings (WIN), Chicago Bears (WIN), Seattle Seahawks (WIN), Baltimore Ravens (WIN), Atlanta Falcons (WIN), New England Patriots (WIN), Denver Broncos (WIN), Cleveland Browns (WIN)

Weighing the Options

Please note that the discussion below is designed for people in large pools. In pools with under 20 people left, where your pick actually changes the pool pick rates to a significant degree, please see the “Advice For Smaller Survivor Pools” section at the end of this article that provides quick strategy tips for smaller pools.

Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
The Texans are the biggest favorite of the week, and aren’t very popular. The main downside here is that they could be useful the next two weeks (vs MIN, @ IND). However, they won’t be huge favorites in either case, and it’s possible they’ll have a bye locked up already if things go their way this week, so we’d discount that future value a bit. Given their safety and their marginal future value, the Texans are clearly the best choice this week, if you still have them available.

Miami Dolphins (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Miami is the next safest team after Houston, but over half the public is picking them. If you’re looking to maximize your expected value (which is what we’ve been doing every week for the past two years), the Dolphins are generally not a good pick. However, if you’re in a pool with a big payout, and you’re willing to sacrifice some of your average value in order to increase the chance that you get any chunk of the prize, then the Dolphins may be an OK conservative pick.

New England Patriots (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Detroit Lions (at Arizona Cardinals)
These three teams all have similar risk profiles, with money lines around -240, and TR win odds between 65% and 70%. However, Seattle looks like the best pick of the three, and one of the better picks of the week. Why? Because they are unpopular, and don’t have much future value. The Patriots may be useful in either of the next two weeks (@ JAX, vs MIA), assuming they haven’t clinched a bye yet, so future keeps New England out of the top tier. And the Lions get docked because they are the second most popular team this week, being picked by 20% of the public, meaning their immediate value drops a bit. (Though like Miami, they are still an OK pick if you’re placing a premium on winning any piece of the prize pool, rather than on maximizing your average expected value.)

Cincinnati Bengals (at Philadelphia Eagles)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Now we’re hitting team with money lines around -200, and TR win odds of 60% to 66%. Neither the Bengals or the Saints are very popular, and neither have any real future value, so both are decent picks this week, despite their risk. Cincy appears to be a few percent safer, so they are the better choice of the two.

Oakland Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
San Diego Chargers (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
The Oakland, San Diego, and Green Bay all have money lines around -150, and TR win odds around 60%, so they are another notch riskier. None are very popular, but they do vary in terms of future value. Oakland has none whatsoever, so the Raiders look like the best pick of these three – but still worse than any team listed above, except super-popular Miami. The Packers will be a good choice next week (vs TEN), so it’s probably smarter to save Green Bay. If you’re reaching down this low for a pick, there are surely other similarly risky options available to you. And the Chargers may have some value in Week 17 (vs OAK), but it’s tough to count on a projected Week 17 line, so we rank San Diego between the other two here.

The rest of your options this week are pretty close to coin flips, so if you have to stretch this far, just take any random unpopular one with no future value.

Preliminary Week 15 NFL Survivor Pick: New Orleans Saints Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[Quick programming note: we're going to keep making picks as if we had survived to this point. So for our purposes here, we've used Detroit and Pittsburgh already, and still have Denver and Cleveland available.]

We’ve got none of our top tier teams remaining, so for us this week, the choice basically comes down to:

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay (-192 money line, 60% TR win odds, 5% popularity, no future value)
Miami vs. Jacksonville (-315 money line, 73% TR win odds, 54% popularity, no future value)

As we’ve discussed many times in the past, picking a super popular team is generally not a smart Survivor strategy. In order to win your pool, or to gain a bigger piece of the final prize pool, you need to win while your opponent loses. Obviously that’s not possible if you pick the same team as your foes.

This week, for a 13% win odds penalty, we get a roughly 1-in-4 shot of doubling our expected payout. Choosing New Orleans is definitely the riskier move, but it’s the one that’s more valuable over the long term. So, our preliminary Week 15 NFL Survivor pick is New Orleans over Tampa Bay.

That said, for some of you, surviving to the end of the year may be more important than maximizing your expected value. Maybe your current share of the pool is so huge that just hanging on to that (i.e. sacrificing some average value in order to decrease your variance) is more important to you. Or, you’ve made it this far in a pool with your buddies, and bragging rights for “surviving all year” is more important to you than anything else at this point. For people in these types of situations, Miami may be a good choice.

Advice For Smaller Survivor Pools

Remember, all the discussion above is designed for large pools, where future value is still very important. Many of you are probably in pools with only a few people left. It’s important to remember that in small pools, the correct strategy can change considerably. Here’s a refresher on key three points about Survivor end-game tactics:

It’s less likely that your opponents’ picks will closely mimic the national public picking averages.
Future value means less.
Resist the urge to play overly conservative just because you’re close to winning.

For an expanded discussion on these points, see the Week 4 NFL Survivor post.

Here is some specific advice for Week 12 for those in smaller pools:

Pools With 9-20 People — At this point, it seems likely that many pools of this size will last the rest of the year. So the strategy here is basically to follow the order outlined in the main data table, and the tips covered in the pick discussion above. The one caveat is that your pool’s picks may be quite different than the public, so if one team projects to be much more or less popular than in the general public, you’ll want to adjust your ranking of them accordingly.

Pools With 3-8 People – If you’re in a very small pool, where you can take some rough guesses about who your opponents will choose, all bets are off. Our picks are made based on the assumption that these public pick percentages roughly match the pick rates in your pool, and that won’t be true for your pool. In very small pools this week, the least popular out of the Texans, Dolphins, Seahawks, or Lions is probably your best option, as those four teams are in the safest couple tiers, plus have less future value than the Patriots. If you’ve got none of the above available, then working your way down from safest to riskiest (by money line) and taking the first unpopular team (only 1 or 0 people picking them) may work.

Head-to-Head Pools – Strategy totally changes here again, as the pick percentages will always be 50% or 100%. It’s impossible for you to pick an unpopular team, because you are half the pool. And future value means very little, as the pool may be over this week. In those cases, safety becomes the number one priority. So in head-to-head pools, we generally recommend taking the biggest favorite you have available, with future value only playing a role win there are multiple good options. This week, the Texans are the safest pick, but if you really need them next week, the Dolphins are a good choice as well. If you don’t have either available, Detroit or Seattler are the next most attractive, and then Cincinnati or New England, depending on whether you think you’ll need to use the Patriots in the future.

There is one thing to keep in mind here. If you’re trying to decide between two teams that are roughly equally risky, you may want to consider which teams your opponent has left. If he looks like he may have the upper hand in future weeks, it’s wise to try to pick a different team than him now. You’d be hoping to win or lose this week (with equal chances of both), rather than waiting for the future (where he has the advantage). On the other hand, if you have the upper hand in the coming weeks, you should try to pick the same team as him, so he doesn’t get the chance to win now, and must fight against the odds later.

As always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section. However, please note that the volume has gotten high enough that we can’t commit to giving everyone a detailed answer. But we’re doing our best and can make it work if we all follow a few guidelines:

First, please read the “Advice For Smaller Pools” section and see if that answers your question.
A lot can change between now and Friday, when we publish our finalized pick. So if your pick isn’t due until Friday or the weekend, please hold off asking questions until Friday.
If you do need advice now, and you’re in a small pool, be sure to include information about pool size, who you have available, and who you think your opponents will choose, as those are the key factors in small pools.
If you’re in a large pool, please include info on why you think your pool is different than the generic Yahoo! and OFP pools.

indyguy

Hey Guys,

In a league w/about 90 ppl left however we’re now forced to pick 2 teams for weeks 15 & 16. I’ve saved HOU, NE, DEN (the latter 2 looking goof for next week). Would you roll the dice with HOU & MIA or HOU & NO?
chris p

Hey Dave, thanks so much for the post, I’m in a pool with just under 100 left, and have to double pick this week. I have Det, Mia, NO, Sea available, most teams have NO & Mia available, and about half the pool has Det & Sea available. I was planning on saving Sea for week 17 (home vs STL, likely playing for a playoff spot). I’m concerned about NO, their Defemse is terrible and at this point of the season they dont have much to play for (5-8 record vs TB at 6-7, I’d argue that TB has more to play for than NO; by my calculations, NO won’t make the playoffs). Given the double pick requirement I have this week, would you put less consideration on the popularity aspect of the Miami pick and go with Mia & Det this week? If not, then which 2 teams? Thanks again for the weekly blog!!!
Jack Straw

Thanks as always for the insightful and well developed analysis. I noticed WAS @ CLE as essentially the most to avoid. If the reports are positive on RGIII do you see potential opportunity as the week progresses? I feel that I am otherwise faced with MIA or DET in the pool that is now down to 5 of us — all 5 of us have both of these teams stil available, and the other participants have ben going with the heavy favourites over the past few weeks, so DET may be the better option for me, as i will assume most will be on MIA (all the others do have NO available, but I have used them in week 11, and all have used HOU and SEA). I have used NE, SF, CHI, BAL, MIN, ATL, OAK, BG, ATL, PIT, NO, CIN, DAL, SEA. Hmmm DET? Thoughts?
Jack Straw

sorry – I put ATL in there twice…the second time was HOU! and BG should be GB! so…let me try that again – I have used – NE, SF, CHI, BAL, MIN, ATL, OAK, GB, HOU, PIT, NO, CIN, DAL, SEA
Frank_Elways

David, 4 teams left, two are mine, we’re in double picks. Trying to decide between HOU/MIA x 2 or HOU/ MIA and HOU/Det. I am almost certain both other teams will be on Miami. Neither have Detroit. If I pick Mia x 2, I am almost guaranteed to survive till next week with both teams as long as HOU wins. (each team will have at least one loss if MIA loses, but I will have no chance of winning the pool.) Here are the numbers:

HOU/MIA and HOU/MIA
Elimination 13.42%
2 team 86.58%
win pool 0.00%

HOU/MIA and HOU/DET
Elimination 3.89%
At least 1 team survives 96.11%
2 teams survive 53.02%
win pool: 14.29%

Remember, If I make it to the end of the season, I will go into the playoffs with a big advantage of having two teams instead of one. For the rest of the season, I’m only slightly behind one guy cause I have to use Car in week 16 for both teams, where he has GB and DEN left. Week 17 we are all pretty even.

So, go for the kill now, or lay in wait with two teams?
Frank_Elways

If you’ve got good bullets in your gun for week 16, then just survive this week and see what happens later. Miami.
Chris

Pool was down to 5 last week and everyone took different teams! I was the only one on Seattle
One guy lost with TB so we’re down to 4.
Pool has seemed to make a habit of avoiding the most popular team, meaning I think I should take Miami. But now that it’s down to 4, and there’s not really any good other options this week they may all opt for Miami as well. Just need to figure out what level they’ll be thinking on.

My options: MIA, OAK, STL, NOR

Their options which I’ve ranked from most to least likely (i’ve put MIA 2nd probably more for optimism than realism):

1) SEA, MIA, NOR
2) DET, MIA, NOR
3) DET, MIA, SEA, NWE

Considerations for future weeks:

#1 still has Denver left, and #3 has NWE.
2 and 3 have used NYG. 3 has also used PIT. 3 doesn’t really have good week 17 options unless they save NWE till then (even then NWE may not try, and it’s possible MIA could have a shot at the playoffs…albeit unlikely)

I’m thinking of just going with the safest pick I have available and hoping the others steer clear of them again this week. I think equity-wise Miami is probably my best option, and I don’t subjectively feel good about any other option. Not sure I subjectively feel great about Miami either, but gotta roll with it!
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yep, I agree with Frank. In 2-pick leagues, the public percentage on a single team is not so important. It’s the % of opponents that will take BOTH of the same teams as you that’s more important. And HOU/MIA is not going to be a common choice.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yes, see my answer to indyguy below. Pick% is less important in 2-pick leagues.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Don’t see anything here that would make my advise from the post irrelevant:

“In very small pools this week, the least popular out of the Texans, Dolphins, Seahawks, or Lions is probably your best option”

As for WAS/RG3, watch the lines.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I don’t understand what this means: “each team will have at least one loss if MIA loses, but I will have no chance of winning the pool” … Why would you have no chance of winning? Won’t you split it 4 ways if MIA loses? And win it outright if MIA wins and your opponents’ second picks lose?

Going to pass on answering this for now, since I’m obviously missing something.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, if they all avoided the popular team last week, I think you’ve got to assume there’s at least some chance of that happening again. So I’d go MIA.
Frank_Elways

Sorry, my bad. If all the remaining teams have the same number of losses, we all survive to the next week. So if we all pick Miami and we all lose, I will either win with 1 win if their other team loses, or we all tie, and survive. And I also left out that I’m almost positive one other guy is picking HOU/MIA. The other guy will be on MIA/NE.
Jerz

Miami or detroit. 7 people left. Have buy back left. Saving NE for wk 16
Greg

5 teams left. I have no strikes. 4 teams now have 2 strikes so I have room to gamble. I know 3 teams will most likely pick Miami. 1 team is a wild card and may pick randomly. Should I pick Miami or New Orleans in this situation?
Greg

Oh I also have DET.
http://www.facebook.com/matt.simmons.75098 Matt Simmons

We are down to 29 from 2937. I have Seattle left. Would you take them over NO?
I also have Pitts, minn, Washington, and Miami. Only 4 of us have Seattle left. Thanks
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Playing a dead team with no defense into divisional revenge does not a good survivor pool selection make, David:) Tampa Bay can easily outright New Orleans. In fact, the Bucs probably will win this game going away..

Also, you mention Seattle has no future value when in fact in week 17 it has a very good matchup vs. St. Louis that might be for the division title as I expect Seattle to beat San Francisco in week 16. I could, however, see Seattle being upset this week in Buffalo. If Seattle escapes Buffalo with a win, it will be one of the best picks in week 17. Just not sure about your analysis of “future value.”

I do watch a lot of football, and am fairly adept at handicapping the NFL. To me, the best off the radar team this week is the St. Louis Rams. Last home game of the season for the Rams catching Minnesota off a number of NFC North divisional affairs. Technically, the Rams are in a very favorable role this week and should be considered for anyone that does not have Houston (or New England) available, and wishes to avoid Miami.
jmike

Jack, maybe Adam should take your advice and choose St. Louis this week. Oh that’s right, he can’t because you advised him to take Tampa last week. And you were all over the Lions the week before that. You seem to be very adept indeed at handicapping NFL games.
Derrick James

I have Houston..out of 47 people left in the pool..only 7 have Houston left..
What makes me go hmmm is the divisional factor and Seattle.
Buffalo only beat Arizona early on in the seaon due to Zonas missing a fieldgoal to seal the deal as time expired.
If Buffal had trouble with Zona , what do you think Seattle will do to them after the can of whoop ass they open up on Zona this past weekend
But Zona could have that week 17 game to look forward to.
Whats your thoughts..Houston..or Seatte.. and dont get down on yourself..if its any consolation , I didnt take your advice once last year..was illiminated , bought back in..listened closely..and made it thru till the end $$$
http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

How do you feel about Detroit @ Arizona as an alternative to Miami?
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Adam who? Tampa Bay? Last week? Don’t think so. I bet Philly. I advised Daniel Silverfarb to take Seattle. That’s all I recall. And I won 12k on Carolina +160 and Minnesota +125. I am doing quite well. Yes, i liked Detroit 2 weeks ago, but only because I got greedy and chose to hold NE, GB and Houston. I don’t have an issue with Detroit losing. It outplayed Indy for 58 minutes
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Prefer Miami of those 2 choices. Prefer not to tangle with teams off of 58-0 beatdowns. Sure, Detroit could crush the Cards, but I would feel like an idiot when Cards bounce back. How large us your pool? How many guys left, Daniel?
Joe Allan

For what it’s worth I would take the Texans and here’s why.

I don’t trust Seattle on the road, I don’t care what happened last week because It’s irrelevant to this game.

Secondly Seattle is probably the safest play in week 17 when they host the Rams.

And probably the biggest reason is Houston to me is a LOCK on Sunday. This is a total mismatch. Indy is not nearly as good as their record. Go look at their road games and they’ve given up a TON of points, road or home to decent teams.

Hope that helps

Good luck
SaintsIn2013

I have the same dilemma as Daniel – my choice basically comes down to either Detroit or Miami. I agree with your thoughts about Arizona coming off a 58-0 and playing for pride at home. However, if they start Ryan Lindley (probably the worst NFL QB I’ve ever seen) I will have no choice but to pull the trigger on Detroit – a team who in their past three games had had opportunities to beat Houston, Indianapolis, and Green Bay (all playoff teams). Detroit is at least as “due” as Arizona is, and they’re a much better team to boot.

If it’s Skelton than I may lean back towards Miami. Tough tough pick.
SaintsIn2013

I’m a diehard Saints fan – have watched every play of every game since 1997. Our defense isn’t nearly as bad as advertised lately. Steve Spagnuolo has actually done WONDERS crafting a decent defensive line over the past 4 or 5 weeks, and with Hawthorne back healthy and Vilma pitching in a bit, the linebacking corps is also holding their weight. The Saints’ defense held San Francisco, Atlanta, and the Giants offenses under 20 points. It was Brees’ combined NINE interceptions (several for TD’s) coupled with HORRENDOUS special teams/kick coverage that accounted for all those points.

So my reason for typing all of this is that the Saints defense has played top 15 caliber football over the past 7 games. Those gaudy numbers the other teams have been throwing up these past 3 weeks are mostly on Breesus (as hard as that is to believe).

I can’t imagine Brees having ANOTHER crappy game against the worst secondary in the NFL (but then again I couldn’t have imagined him killing us THREE weeks in a row and all of them in virtually nationally covered games – Aikman/Buck for SF and NYG and Thursday night NFL Network for Falcons).

My recommendation is that if you trust Brees against the worst secondary in the NFL than go with the Saints for a good value pick here. Don’t worry about our defense and don’t worry about our kick coverage in the Superdome – Morstead can hit it out of the endzone indoors.
SaintsIn2013

Just saw that the Cardinals are rolling with Ryan Lindley versus Detroit. That means that in my 205-remaining pool I’m going to go with Seattle/Detroit (have to pick 2 teams since so many entries remain). Not a ton of people have Seattle left to choose from so that insulates me from picking the same combo as everybody else (Miami/Detroit).
SaintsIn2013

You claim to watch a ton of football and your authoritative tone is somewhat convincing, but if you had been watching the Saints you’d know that their defense has actually been playing really well of late. It’s turnovers and poor kick coverage that have doomed them. Defense has been top 15 in the league if you take their past 6 games.
http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

There’s 15 of us left, and I’m leaning DET / NE / NYG for the remainder of the season. I played it safe with SEA last week, but figured the win odds are close enough this week to break somewhat from the pack. Would prefer if it was in Detroit, but I guess if it were then it’d be more popular than Miami anyway.
Bob Sanders

If your pool grants its winner to a team with the fewest amount of strikes (if multiple entries aren’t eliminated), you should be picking the team you think EVERYONE will take.
Logic: You have a 2 strike lead. If you maintain your strike lead, you win the pool. So, if you take the most common pick, regardless if they win or lose, you’ll maintain your strike edge and win the pool. Take Miami.
Tess

Wish I saw this earlier! Our picks are due by 2pm on Wednesday and I went with the Dolphins, along with most of America apparently and 50% of my pool. At least we are down to 6 people.

I was debating between Miami and Houston this week. I have been saving the Texans and cwanted to use them next week, for some reason the Colts make me nervous. But if the Texans lock up the bye, I will have a tough Week 16 now. Sometimes it doesn’t help to save the best for last!
Eddie Money

If RG3 is a go for Sunday, what’s your view on the Skins this week over Cleveland? Would you still go with STL as a contrarian pick? What about OAK/KC?
MrOban

First, congrats to everyone still reading this. Not easy getting to Week 15. Just curious everyone’e thoughts here and thanks to all who respond. I am down to 3 people (including myself) in a pool with over 300 people in it. I have Denver left in week 16 to use and my opponents do not. One of them can use the Giants in week 17. the other has no other advantage teams left (nobody can use Texans, Patriots or Green Bay for example). of games available on the board (using the odds on the Team Rankings chart) we have the optimal game this week (Dolphins) but my opponents are likely to use as well. The Broncos are the best the week after which gives us an advantage. But there are several other good games to take too. In week 17 we are likely playing the Chargers while one of the two opponents will likely play the Giants.

So the question is – would you make a deal if offered? If not, there is no point to trying to play a riskier game than the Dolphins this week. They are both likely to play it. Risking a loss with an advantage next week seems stupid to me. Also, if it IS correct to make a deal than it also seems correct to play the Dolphins this week. if we all lose its the same thing. Ensuring we get to play our advantage next week seems optimal. Please let me know your thoughts.
Scott

I’m one of only three people left in my league. I have an advantage because I’ve been saving NE and SF. My opponents used both teams early. I was originally going to save NE for week 16 and SF for week 17. However, I’m thinking of going for gold and taking NE this week, betting that BUF or ZONA upset. They both have SEA left and I don’t. My theory is that week 15 is the toughest of the three weeks. We all have INDY and CAR left for next week. And one of my opponents has NYG left for week 17. All the other big dogs are gone (HOU, DEN, GB, ATL). If I take NE and we all survive my plan is to take CAR over OAK or INDY over KC in Week 16 and SF over ZONA in week 17. Worst comes to worst, we split the money.

So, am I right to go for gold this week with NE over SF this week?
Chris

I would say no. You may as well take the biggest favorite you have available, which is Miami. They will likely take them too. If they don’t, advantage you anyways. Worst case is Miami loses and you split the pot 3 ways. If you take NE now you are giving them an advantage this week, and giving yourself less of an advantage in Week 16.

I’d just take Miami, hope they are both on Miami too, and then crush them in weeks 16/17 with NE/SF.

This is assuming both those teams play their starters on those weeks. I’m not sure if they will, which is something you will have to factor in to your consideration.
Chris

Looking at next week, without vig, Indy and Car are both about 67%. NE is 86.3%. I’d much prefer that.

Assuming you take Pats and they take Miami this week you have a 16.8% chance of winning the pool this week.

Whereas if you all survive this week and you have Pats next week vs their Car or Indy, you have a 28.5% chance of winning the pool.
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com/ Jack

I agree the Saints defense is improved over the start of the season. And yes, its kick coverage vs. the Giants was horrendous. The bottom line is the 4 teams in the NFC South have fairy equivalent talent and play each other very competitively. Can the Saints win? Sure. However, playing into division revenge in a late season game will not work into New Orleans’ favor. Would simply avoid the matchup.
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com/ Jack

Derrick, follow Joe’s advice. It is correct and well-stated.
Jon

David – only 2 left in my pool. My opponent has Mia, Det, Car, and SFO as primary options left. He has historically gone with the heavy favorites each week. I have Mia and Det available for this week and Car and NYG available for wks 16 and 17. Assuming he takes Mia this week, i’m leaning on taking Det. Then Car week 16 and NYG week 17. I assume his path will be Mia, Car, SFO. Do you agree or do you suggest i play it safe and go with Mia? My pick deadline is today

Thanks
Frank_Elways

No amount of pride will make their O line competent. And as bad as Detroit record is, they still have the number one offense in the NFC.
Dave

TB’s last second loss last week eliminated me in one of my pools, ugh. Though I’m still alive in the other one. I need to pick who will win by the most points this week – among teams I have left it’s among MIA, DET or SEA. I’m leaning towards MIA, but they will likely be popular in my pool. Worth taking a risk on DET that they will blow out AZ this week?
Frank_Elways

What’s your alternative to NE this week, MIA?
Scott

Ya. Or Det. I’ve taken ATL, BAL, CHI, CIN, DAL, DEN, GB, HOU, NYG, PIT, and SEA. I can take MIA, DET this week.
Scott

Thanks man. Good advice. So you’d take MIA over DET? Keep in mind that they can take SEA (I kind of feel that Bills can take it. That being said, I am a Bills fan).
Frank_Elways

I agree with Chris. You give up win % this week and next week. If you really want to get off Miami without giving up any future advantage, then go DET, who, according to Vegas anyway, is more favored to win than NE.
Usockem

Jack,
In case you are not aware, the Seattle/Buffalo game will take place in Toronto in a domed stadium. Do you consider that to be a factor?
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com/ Jack

Of course it’s a factor. Will make things easier for Seattle.
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com/ Jack

I really like St. Louis. I have no thoughts on Cleveland/Washington or Oakland/KC. Like St. Louis, Chicago and Houston this week.
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com/ Jack

Well, there are shutoutouts and there are 58-0 beatdowns. Daniel, do you have any relatives named Paul?
Frank_Elways

You guys are heading to a split if you pick MIA. Is there enough money in the pool were a split will make you happy? If not, go DET. Assuming you are right that this guy will pick MIA, in the long run (multiple years), DET is the right call as far as increasing your estimated value, so if they lose, you will at least know you played the right way.
Chris

So you need to pick someone that will win by the most points? How far behind the leader are you? If you have a lot of ground to catch up, I’d definitely go off the board.
Possibly NO or Wash if RG3 is playing.
Chris

I go with MIA over DET because:

a) Miami is more likely to win – solely based on vegas odds, and I’m not going to give my subjective opinion because I don’t think I’m smarter than vegas.

b) You don’t really need to differentiate because you have the advantage going forward.

Cliff notes: take the biggest favorite this week. If they also do, you have the advantage in weeks 16 and 17.

If they don’t match you, you have the advantage this week, as well as 16 and 17.
Dave

There are 4 people left in the pool, 1 person is thrown out each week (lowest margin of victory person). I am right now in the 3rd spot out of 4 people. Generally the strategy is for the current leaders to pick the biggest favorite every week so that they remain in the lead. I’m guessing that maybe the 1st and 2nd place guys will pick Miami. The person in 4th will likely pick a different team in hopes they win by more points than the big favorite so that they leapfrog the leaders and get into the 1st position (likely he will pick DET I bet). So I’m thinking of doing DET in hopes that they win by more than MIA. SEA is also a possibility, though I’m not sure if SEA will beat BUF by more points than DET over AZ. Right now I have more faith in DET since AZ is so bad.
Tyson

Not sure about the math behind accepting a deal, but I have two quick thoughts for you.

Depending on the size of the pot, you may want to hedge your bets from this point forward.

Also, instead of offering a full deal, what about proposing that the guys that don’t win will get some percentage of the pot, like 10% each?
JMIKE

I did re-read your post to Adam. You told him 13 days ago “next week you take TB and Seattle.” Then you told him to “please thank me in three weeks.” TB lost. So you didn’t technically lie when you said last week you only advised Daniel to take Seattle, because you advised Adam 13 days ago to take TB last weekend . But you can’t get around the fact that the team you advised him to take last weekend lost. I wouldn’t hold my breath on his thank-you post. l
Jack is Annoying

no one listen to Jack he is on crack
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com/ Jack

Jmike. You still do not understand the point of the post to Adam. The only point of the post was to show Adam that a weak entry that has burned all of the best teams can still WIN (not split) a 6 figure pot by going opposite (Jacksonville week 15) of a team that will be picked by 85% of pool entries (Miami week 15) in a double pick situation. The path to get to week 15 is irrelevant. I only listed 3 teams that were “likely to win” to create a path. Just as David Hess will list a path weeks ahead of time that includes Miami even though once the week is upon us, Miami is too popular and may be thrown out. The only point of the post that in a large double pick pool using a 7 point underdog such as Jacksonville this week is a way to secure a jackpot that one will other wise have no shot ever of winning because by definition if Miami wins everyone moves on and no one gets to win anything of much value, unless of course winning 10K turns you on. The fact that you spend so much time worrying about a team I might project, however I will never spend any time worrying about a team you may recommend is interesting. Meanwhile I am going back to figuring out my small single pick pool selection this week: St Louis or New England?
http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

Not that I know of.
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com/ Jack

OK. Thanks Daniel. I am in a small pool. 65 guys left out of 650. I have NE left, as you do. I am thinking St. Louis/NE/Pitt. Or NE/somebody/Pitt. I think you probably will ultimately be safe with Det/NE/NYG, though. Maybe Detroit benefits from playing away from Detroit. I think it felt a lot of internal pressure with that 3 game homestand vs. GB/Hou/Indy. The Lions could easily be 8-5 or 9-4. Just very very bad coaching. Tough to envision Ryan Lindley outscoring anyone. If Stafford protects the ball, Detroit should win for you. Personally, I just can’t give Detroit the opportunity to knock me out in 2 different pools. I need to avoid Detroit. I might move New England up this week. I will probably wait until Sunday to watch line movement before deciding upon NE or STL.
John

Split half the pot with them and play for the rest. I’ve been there and you need to hedge if there is a decent amount of money involved. The cheapest and most efficient hedge is splitting part of the pot now. Congrats!
http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

Thanks. Had to get my picks in yesterday, so I’m locked into Detroit I agree they’ve had a lot of close games, and should win this one. Unfortunately, our pool ended up with equal # of picks between Detroit (4), Miami (4), and Seattle (4), along with 1 HOU, 1 OAK, 1 WAS. As MIA popularity wasn’t a huge factor, I probably should’ve just stayed with Miami. But too late now – the die is cast. At least I can still root for the big upset by JAX! Good luck with your pick!
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Ah, gotcha.

OK, so in terms of expected value, HOU/MIA + HOU/DET is slightly higher. If you (incorrectly, it sounds like) assume you have even odds to win the pool with anybody still remaining, splitting your picks has about 8% higher EV. If you assume you have a 10% edge against any remaining entries, it’s about 5% higher EV. The tipping point is about a 30% edge. So, for example, if you think that heads up against one of the remaining opponents, you’d have a 65% chance to win (vs their 30%), then the EV for either strategy is the same.

And, I guess since you will play this out to conclusion (i.e. no ties), then EV should be all you care about. There is no “just survive and split the pot, even though you’ll get a smaller chunk” strategy to consider.

Here are the actual EV outcomes I calculated with each strategy, based on a mix of the most recent Pinnacle money lines and TR win odds. These all assume equal future value for all teams, but you can adjust those as you see fit:

HOU/MIA x 2

100% EV … 0% chance (win pool)

67% EV … 28.4% chance

50% EV … 58.2% chance

33% EV … 0% chance

0% EV … 13.3% chance (eliminated)

HOU/MIA + HOU/DET

100% EV … 14.6% chance (win pool)

67% EV … 16.0% chance

50% EV … 44.2% chance

33% EV … 14.1% chance

0% EV … 11.1% chance (eliminated)
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

“If you do need advice now, and you’re in a small pool, be sure to include information about pool size, who you have available, and ***who you think your opponents will choose***, as those are the key factors in small pools.”

In general, I’d say if you think the same number or only one more opponent will be on Miami than Detroit, I’d go Miami. If 2 more opponents will be on Miami than Detroit, I’d go DET.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Bob is right.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

“Teams are listed in order of how attractive we think they are as a choice this week in big pools (more than 20 people).”

That’s the text above the table.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

“Tampa Bay can easily outright New Orleans. … Yeah, agree. I’d say they have almost a 40% chance to win.

If you are better at handicapping games than the sportsbook lines and/or our models, go for it. I’m not, so I have to stick to trusting the numbers.

I do agree that the future value metric could use some work. However, remember it’s all relative. Not many teams have significantly more FV by my listing:

NE (16 @ JAX, 17 vs MIA, maybe playing for a bye)

HOU (16 vs MIN, 17 @ IND, this one I see your point, could have bye wrapped up)

DEN (16 vs CLE, vs 17 KAN, maybe playing for a bye)

Also, not on the table but having more FV are:

NYG (17 vs PHI, maybe playing for division title, playoff spot)

CAR (16 vs OAK, this one again I see your point, though options are slim that week, which gave them a boost)

I guess it’s true I could have been more careful with my phrasing there. The main point was that they have LES future value than New England.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yep, I agree with Joe & Jack, I’d go HOU here.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, if you are worried about losing out on a chunk of a huge pot, I would definitely hedge with a partial deal, if possible. And if there is no deal, then picking the Dolphins gets you closer to a tie, and reduces your variance some, so it would be the way to go.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I agree with Chris here.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Frank, in a heads up pool, how does taking the lower win% team increase your estimated value?
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I’m not sure what the benefit of taking Detroit is here. Miami is by all accounts safer, and you’re not planning on using them going forward, so future value is not a concern. And it doesn’t sound like you have a disadvantage in Week 16 or 17.

The only reason to take DET seems to be to increase your chances of either winning or losing the pot, and avoiding the tie. But there’s no inherent negative in a split pot.

Oh, and I just noticed your pick was already due. Whoops!
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

If you are in 3rd, seems like your goals should be to pick a *different* team than the 1st/2nd place entries, and pick the *same* team as the 4th place entry. (Other than just picking the high MOV, of course.)

If you pick the same team as #4 you’re guaranteed to survive the week. And you want to pick different than the two above you so you can gain ground.

So, I’d go DET since you think #4 will take them, and they are a solid choice anyway.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Hey, be nice.
Dave

Good suggestion on NO, I didn’t expect them to roll TB like they did. I went with DET, and DET got smashed. So I am out. Guess that’s how it goes.
Dave

Unfortunately the 4th place guy picked SEA, or else I would have been setup perfectly going forward if I had picked SEA. So I’m out now. I appreciate all the survivor articles, I didn’t win my pool but I made it pretty far in part to your advice.
Frank_Elways

I think what I was getting at is your “tie avoidance.”
Frank_Elways

Thanks David, that is a neat way of looking at it. I ended up going double Miami because like I said last week, the real strength of my team is that there are two of them, and there was only a 14% chance of winning this week if I picked Detroit. Thanks again for your work. The other guy went with GB instead of NE. Gutsy call and so everyone survived.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Oh, that’s some tough luck. Sorry about the elimination, and good luck next season!
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Ah, gotcha.