Week 13 NFL Survivor Strategy: Should We Get Risky Now Or Later? Notes from the Sports Nerds

Week 13 NFL Survivor Strategy: Should We Get Risky Now Or Later?

173 comments - NFL, NFL Survivor Pools - posted by David Hess on November 28, 2012

Welcome to the Week 13 installment of our NFL Survivor contest advice column. We apply a data-driven strategy to get an edge in Survivor pools, using analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models, public picking trends, future team schedules, and other data. This article presents our preliminary Survivor pick of the week; we publish our final, official pick on Fridays.

For the fifth time this season, and the fourth time in the last six weeks, over 94% of Yahoo Survivor contestants managed to avoid elimination. The last time a team picked by at least 15% of the public lost was way back in Week 6.

There are no hugely popular teams this week, so a mass knockout seems unlikely, but with picks spread fairly evenly among a handful of top options, hopefully we’ll see at least one or two upsets thin the ranks.

Week 13 NFL Survivor Decision Factors

This is the heart of our column, the table showing the factors that influence our weekly Survivor pick decision. For every team, here are the three questions we ask ourselves (and the data in our table that helps us answer them):

1. How likely are they to win? (consensus sportsbook Spread at -110 payout odds, Pinnacle Money Line, and TR Odds from our NFL win picks page)

2. How popular is this team? (Average public Pick % from sites like Yahoo! and OfficeFootballPool)

3. Should I save this team for later? (Future Value: a quick rating created by giving 1 point for a future game with 75%+ win odds and half a point for a game with 65%+ win odds, with only partial credit for games in Week 16 or 17 when teams may be resting players. Based on averaging projections from our NFL Survivor Tool [which uses data from only this season] and our NFL Season Projections [which incorporates our preseason team projections].)

Teams are listed in order of how attractive we think they are as a choice this week. They’re also separated into rough tiers. If two teams are in the same tier, you may want to choose among them based on which pros and cons are more important to your particular situation.

NOTE: We’ve removed the “Near Value” column this week because at this point in the season, everything is near, so plain old “Future Value” should work for everyone.

Team	Opponent	Spread	Money Line	TR Odds	Pick %	Future Val
Tier 1: Top Options
Dallas	vs Philadelphia	-10.0	-525 / +442	76%	15.6%	0.0
Green Bay	vs Minnesota	-9.0	-390 / +338	75%	4.4%	1.2
Tier 2: Worth A Look
Denver	vs Tampa Bay	-7.0	-325 / +285	79%	5.2%	2.3
New England	at Miami	-7.0	-350 / +305	79%	10.1%	2.8
Detroit	vs Indianapolis	-4.5	-215 / +193	68%	2.5%	0.3
Houston	at Tennessee	-6.0	-255 / +227	69%	1.7%	1.8
NY Jets	vs Arizona	-4.5	-213 / +191	66%	4.6%	0.5
San Francisco	at St Louis	-7.0	-320 / +281	72%	18.3%	1.6
Tier 3: AVOID
Baltimore	vs Pittsburgh	--	---- / ----	64%	6.7%	0.0
Atlanta	vs New Orleans	-3.5	-195 / +175	61%	0.3%	0.4
Chicago	vs Seattle	-3.0	-186 / +167	68%	7.3%	0.9
Buffalo	vs Jacksonville	-5.5	-240 / +214	66%	18.3%	0.3
Carolina	at Kansas City	-3.0	-148 / +134	53%	2.8%	0.5
NY Giants	at Washington	-2.5	-143 / +129	52%	0.6%	0.9
Cincinnati	at San Diego	-1.5	-132 / +120	51%	0.4%	1.0
Oakland	vs Cleveland	-1.5	-161 / +135	29%*	0.4%	0.1

Teams We’ve Already Used (Final Official Picks): Houston Texans (WIN), Cincinnati Bengals (WIN), Dallas Cowboys (WIN), Green Bay Packers (WIN), San Francisco 49ers (WIN), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WIN), Minnesota Vikings (WIN), Chicago Bears (WIN), Seattle Seahawks (WIN), Baltimore Ravens (WIN), Atlanta Falcons (WIN), New England Patriots (WIN)

Previous Wednesday Preliminary Picks: Houston Texans (WIN), New York Giants (WIN), Chicago Bears (WIN), Green Bay Packers (WIN), San Francisco 49ers (WIN), Arizona Cardinals (LOSS), Minnesota Vikings (WIN), Chicago Bears (WIN), Seattle Seahawks (WIN), Baltimore Ravens (WIN), Atlanta Falcons (WIN), New England Patriots (WIN)

Weighing the Options

Please note that the discussion below is designed for people in large pools. In pools with under 20 people left, where your pick actually changes the pool pick rates to a significant degree, please see the “Advice For Smaller Survivor Pools” section at the end of this article that provides quick strategy tips for smaller pools.

Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – If you’ve saved the Cowboys, nice work! They are the biggest favorite of the week, have basically no future value, and are being picked by only 16% of the public. That does make them the third-most popular pick this week, but 16% is not a huge incentive to stay away. Our models also are a bit down on the ‘Pokes, but that just means they forecast Dallas as roughly as safe as a few other teams, rather than clearly safer. So again, no red flag there. The Cowboys look like the clear best pick, as long as they aren’t more popular in your pool than with the general public.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings) – The Packers are one of three teams that seem just a touch riskier than Dallas. Green Bay, Denver, and New England all have money lines in the -300′s and TR Odds between 75% and 79%. The Packers are the most attractive of those three options, because they have the least future value, and they are the least popular (though only by a hair on Aaron Rodgers’s mustache). Their immediate value seems similar to Dallas, as their lower popularity makes up for their lower money line. However, their future value means they aren’t quite as good of a pick as the Cowboys. Still, being the clear second best option this week is nothing to sneeze at.

Denver Broncos (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – The Broncos have a profile very similar to Green Bay’s. The main difference is that Denver has more future value. It would be nice to save that future value, but it’s getting late enough in the game that it may be smart to burn them. If you can plot a path for yourself over the last four weeks that doesn’t use Denver, and still manages to stick to teams that are toughly touchdown favorites (or 70% win odds), then it’s not a terrible idea to use Denver now.

New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins) — The Patriots look a lot like the Broncos, except they have even slightly more future value, and they are a bit more popular. So, a similar rule applies here. If it looks like you can survive the next four weeks without the Pats, it might be time to spend them. If not, there are enough medium favorites this week that it’s not super scary to save them for later.

San Francisco 49ers (at St. Louis Rams) – The 49ers are another notch riskier than any of the above teams, plus they are tied with the Bills for the most popular team of the week. They also have some future value (next week vs. MIA, and Week 17 vs. ARI). They are a better choice than a small favorite like Carolina or Cincinnati, but we’d try to avoid San Francisco if you have any medium favorites available.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) – The Ravens are definitely riskier than the 49ers or anyone else listed above, but they aren’t popular, and have zero future value. If you have them available, they are a good choice. [EDIT: We originally were using a spread/money line from Legends sportsbook to inform this choice. It turns out those lines are listed on SBRforum but not actually up on Legends any more. Without a line on the game, we're going to have to trust our models, which show Baltimore as riskier than the Jets or Lions. Until lines are released, we're bumping them down to Tier 3.]

Detroit Lions (vs. Indianapolis Colts) – Like the Ravens, the Lions aren’t very popular, and don’t have much future value. However, we’re getting riskier and riskier as we move down the list, and this may be an inflection point. The Lions are definitely a passable pick, but if you have a safer team available, you may be able to plan a path through the season that avoids any risks this large.

New York Jets (vs. Arizona Cardinals) – Roughly as safe as the Lions, but with a bit more future value. So the same concept applies. Check out your future options, and try to plan a path that avoids a risk this large.

Houston Texans (at Tennessee Titans) – The Texans are a bit safer than the Jets or Lions, but have a lot more future value. Its likely they’ll be more valuable to you in the future than they are now, so for most people it’s probably a good idea to save them.

Buffalo Bills (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – The Bills are only the eighth-biggest favorites of the week according to the money lines, but they are tied with the 49ers as the most popular team. Sure, 18% isn’t a huge amount, but when it doesn’t come with a high-win-odds upside, the smart move is to STAY AWAY and root for an upset.

Preliminary Week 13 NFL Survivor Pick: Denver Broncos Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s getting deep enough in the season that options are becoming very limited. We don’t have either of our Tier 1 options available, and the only Tier 2 options left are Denver, Detroit, and the New York Jets.

We can easily eliminate the Jets from consideration, because they grade out as slightly worse than the Lions in every metric (money line, TR odds, pick%, future value). That leaves us with a choice of burning Denver now, or taking on some additional risk this week with Detroit in order to save Denver for week 14, 16, or 17.

To help make the decision, we tried to plan out the rest of the season based on this week’s choice. It seems like the most likely paths for us, taking into account who we’ve already used, are:

13 DEN (vs TB); 14 CLE (vs KC), 15 MIA (vs JAC), 16 CAR (vs OAK), 17 NYG (vs PHI)
13 DET (vs IND); 14 CLE (vs KC), 15 MIA (vs JAC), 16 DEN (vs CLE), 17 NYG (vs PHI)

The differences there are this week (obviously) and Week 16. So it ultimately boils down to whether we’d rather take Detroit now and Denver in Wek 16, or Denver now and Carolina in Week 16.

Based on looking at projected future odds on our site and other sources, it seems like the projected win odds for both options are roughly the same. In other words, the penalty for dropping down to Detroit now is basically cancelled out by the bonus of moving up from Carolina to Denver in Week 16.

In a case like this, we generally like to take the route that is safer up front, and risky later. Our reasoning is that the future odds are more uncertain, and by Week 16 Denver may not even look like that much better of an option than Carolina. Plus, in Week 16 and 17, there are often surprising lines available due to teams resting starters for the playoffs or giving young talent a bit of experience at the end of a disappointing season.

And, of course, there’s always the chance that your pool will end before you have a chance to cash in the future value.

This was a very close choice, and there would certainly be nothing wrong with a pick of the Lions. It would be the riskier move, but would set us or you up for smoother sailing in future weeks. And, who knows, if the lines move significantly by this weekend, we may end up flipping to Detroit for our official pick.

Advice For Smaller Survivor Pools

Remember, all the discussion above is designed for large pools, where future value is still very important. Many of you are probably in pools with only a few people left. It’s important to remember that in small pools, the correct strategy can change considerably. Here’s a refresher on key three points about Survivor end-game tactics:

It’s less likely that your opponents’ picks will closely mimic the national public picking averages.
Future value means less.
Resist the urge to play overly conservative just because you’re close to winning.

For an expanded discussion on these points, see the Week 4 NFL Survivor post.

Here is some specific advice for Week 12 for those in smaller pools:

Pools With 9-20 People — At this point, it seems likely that many pools of this size will last the rest of the year. So the strategy here is basically to follow the order outlined in the main data table. The one caveat is that your pool’s picks may be quite different than the public, so if one team projects to be much more or less popular than in the general public, you’ll want to adjust your ranking of them accordingly.

Pools With 3-8 People – If you’re in a very small pool, where you can take some rough guesses about who your opponents will choose, all bets are off. Our picks are made based on the assumption that these public pick percentages roughly match the pick rates in your pool, and that won’t be true for your pool. In very small pools this week, the least popular out of the Cowboys, Packers, and 49ers is probably your best option, as those three teams are in the safest tier, plus have less future value than the Broncos or Patriots. If you’ve got none available, then working your way down from safest to riskiest (by money line) and taking the first unpopular team (only 1 or 0 people picking them) may work.

Head-to-Head Pools – Strategy totally changes here again, as the pick percentages will always be 50% or 100%. It’s impossible for you to pick an unpopular team, because you are half the pool. And future value means very little, as the pool may be over this week. In those cases, safety becomes the number one priority. So in head-to-head pools, we generally recommend taking the biggest favorite you have available, with future value only playing a role win there are multiple good options. This week, the Cowboys clearly have the best combo of safety and future value, so they are the ideal pick. If you don’t have them available, Green Bay or San Francisco are the next most attractive, and then Denver or New England.

There is one thing to keep in mind here. If you’re trying to decide between two teams that are roughly equally risky, you may want to consider which teams your opponent has left. If he looks like he may have the upper hand in future weeks, it’s wise to try to pick a different team than him now. You’d be hoping to win or lose this week (with equal chances of both), rather than waiting for the future (where he has the advantage). On the other hand, if you have the upper hand in the coming weeks, you should try to pick the same team as him, so he doesn’t get the chance to win now, and must fight against the odds later.

As always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section. However, please note that the volume has gotten high enough that we can’t commit to giving everyone a detailed answer. But we’re doing our best and can make it work if we all follow a few guidelines:

First, please read the “Advice For Smaller Pools” section and see if that answers your question.
A lot can change between now and Friday, when we publish our finalized pick. So if your pick isn’t due until Friday or the weekend, please hold off asking questions until Friday.
If you do need advice now, and you’re in a small pool, be sure to include information about pool size, who you have available, and who you think your opponents will choose, as those are the key factors in small pools.
If you’re in a large pool, please include info on why you think your pool is different than the generic Yahoo! and OFP pools.

ziggy816

6 people left. I’ve used everyone in Tier 1 and Tier 2, except the Jets, but I’d like to stay away from them — just don’t trust them. I think a number of people will pick Buffalo, so I’d like to stay away from them. Chicago or Carolina — what’s the best bet?
GoBlue

250 people left, double picks most likely the rest of the way. I was definitely gonna pick Denver for 1 of my picks. For my other pick, I still have Houston left but I was thinking about saving them for Week 15 and using the Jets. Would you save the Texans and use the Jets or another team? I still have BUF, CAR, CLE, WAS of the other options. Thanks
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

“Teams are listed in order of how attractive we think they are as a choice this week. “
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, with double picks future value becomes more important, so I’d go Jets rather than Houston.
Dave

Here is my plan for the rest of the year: (15 ish people or so)
week 13 – DAL
week 14 – TB
week 15 – MIA or SEA or DET (2 picks required)
week 16 – DEN or WAS or IND or CAR (3 picks required)

Main week that really concerns me is week 15, though there’s nothing I can do except for likely pick 2 small favorites that week and hope they win. If I get to week 16, I think I have a good shot at winning the pool that week. Any comments on the schedule above? I used the highest TR % teams each week from the teams I have remaining. Thanks a lot for your site and comments.
Mo

I gotta pick 2 teams starting this week … so far i’ve used : Jets, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Vikings, Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Ravens, Patriots, Saints, Bears … leaning Broncos & Bills but everyone is gonna have the Bills & not too many can use the Broncos. Suggestion for a replacement for the Bills? 250 people left & we have to win both. Thanks, Mike …
LA

Have to pick two out these three :
Det over Indy
Jets over Arizona
Buffalo over Jax

I have Carolina and Oakland but like yourself, I don’t trust them.
186 left, only 8 have used Buffalo. No brainer to leave them out, right?

Thanks as always…
Eddie Money

26 people left in my pool, with 8 (including me) still having Dallas available to them for this week and only 4 with SF available. Assuming that anyone who has Dallas left will use them this week, that puts Dallas at around 30%. At that point does it make more sense to go for Denver, assuming their pick percentage is in line with the public? Or does the zero future value and slightly higher safety make Dallas the pick regardless? Thanks for your help!
Anon

Pool with about 200 left, have BUF NYJ and CAR to choose from. However, have 0 strikes (along with 30 others) in a 2-strike pool while everyone else has 1 strike. Does that mean I should be more aggressive (stick with NYJ) or more conservative (BUF) because a loss hurts me less than the 1-strike teams?
Guest

Sorry, meant to say higher safety for Denver, not Dallas.
Ian Graham

Dave-

I am in a 4 person pool. I have NE, DEN, BUF, DET, SEA, TB, PIT remaining .No one else has DEN. 1 has SF and 1 has NE. Everyone has BUF available. I believe this is how the other picks will go: SF, NE, BUF. Should I go with DEN as the only 1 on them, or try and save DEN?

Here is my projected path, lots of options.

Week 13: DEN

Week 14: SEA, CLE or TB

Week 15: MIA or NE

Week 16: TB, NE or CAR

Week 17: SEA or NE

Thanks for your help, love your site.
Tyson

Looks like a good plan to me. Dallas is likely unusable after this week, so they are a good pick. You may want to pick someone else in week 14 if you think TB will be a popular pick, but you can re-evaluate.
RG779

Dave- 8 people left (been like this for 3 weeks)..I am the only one with DEN left. I can get to the end as follows: DEN, TB, MIA, NWE, and NYG. I think I have to burn the Broncos this week. Only 1 person can take DAL, 4 others have NWE (Northeast based pool so Pats will likely be used soon). Or do I save DEN and take the inherently more risky Jets vs a bad ARZ team. Your column is a must read for me before I make my pick.
Kyle

19 people left in a pool that started WK8 and can go into the playoffs. I have used CHI, SD, BAL, DAL and CIN. And a lot of teams have took the best teams that be in playoffs that have been big favs. Does DET become a better pick then DEN or any other team look better to you?
E-ball

11 players left; 7 have already used Dallas, but I have the Cowboys left. Is this the way I should go here?
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=667456521 Justin Miller

150 left out of 2700, 250k pot. I still have NE, Houston, Denver left, and once we hit week 15, we’re going to start taking 2 teams.

I’m thinking Jets bc Lindley is absolutely horrible, then 14 the Bucs or Browns, 15 Texans/Det or Texans Mia. 16 Denver and IND or Denver and Carolina, followed by week 17 of the Pats and Hawks.

Since my strategy here is to spread Houston/Pats/Denver over week 15-17 and pairing them with another marginal favorite instead of 2 of them at the same time, would I be better off going with the Jets or the Lions here? I’m only leaning Jets because I do love the matchup with the horrible QB…but I’m also thinking of the Lions as well. This is the week I have to take the biggest risk, and then after that I will have a huge advantage over everyone else, as there are only 10 teams left with the Texans, 15 with the Patriots, and only 30 with the Broncos, and I expect a lot of action on all 3 of those teams this week.

Or should I really just play it safe and go Denver in this situation? Because I would take Denver now, it’s just I’m worried about picking 2 games once 15/16/17 roll around
Frank_Elways

Dave, how do you feel about resting your ongoing 2 year win streak on Cleveland!
Dave

Thanks for the reply – good point about TB being a popular pick next week. I don’t think anyone has chosen them yet in my pool. Other options I may consider next week are DEN or CLE or SEA. Though I’d like to save DEN for week 16, and SEA for week 15. So it might have to be CLE if I want to avoid TB. I guess I’ll let the TR guys crunch the numbers next week.
Tommy, NY

Dave, tremendous job with your insight all these weeks. Here is my situation and would really like your advise. In a pool that started out with 5000 down to 286. Starting next week we have to pick 2 teams so future value becomes that much more important. I have one team left and I have used the following teams so far:

Texans, Bengals, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Miami, 49ers, Bears, Chargers, Seahawks, Falcons and Colts.

I still have Lions, Ravens, Broncos and Pats to use. Considering how my league is set up, how would you play this week?
Frank_Elways

13.BAL 14. TB/CLE 15. NE/DET 16 DEN/PITT 17 TEN/NYG

That being said, you have a real problem week 15.
Frank_Elways

no.
Frank_Elways

if only 3 other people might pick them, I think yes.
E-ball

I should also have clarified; everyone but one player has used Denver (myself included)
Pete

Dave, great stuff! Thanks in part to you (I deviate here and there), I am down to two and I have Denver and he does not. Our picks are almost completely similar, except I have Minny and Bal left, but she has Cincy and SD left. Although I think that Tampa can hang with Denver, I go for “the kill” this week, right? I’m worried that she survives this week, we both pick TB next week, and I lose in Week 15 when she’ll take Cincy over Philly, and I’ll be left with Miami vs. Jax. Please confirm that Denver is the top choice this week and NOT Baltimore! Where did you get your odds of Bal -7 with Big Ben’s status still in limbo, by the way? Thanks in advance for your help!
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, agree with Tyson. This seems reasonable, and regardless of the future, Dallas seems like a good pick now.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Future value is more important for you, so I’d take the main table where I ranked the teams and then move teams up or down a couple spots based on their future value. So, I’d say probably Detroit would be preferable to Buffalo for your second pick this week.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, of those 3 I think BUF is the worst due to their popularity.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Good question. I think when comparing DEN & DAL, DEN’s huge future value is enough to outweigh a *lot* of popularity for Dallas. Even at 30%, I think I’d still go DAL. The tipping point is probably closer to 40%.
http://www.facebook.com/adam.melvin.94 Adam Melvin

Here is my situation. 9 people remain. 1 person has Den available. Noboy has GB or Dal left. 7 people have Det left, all 9 have NYJ left and Carolina left. Nobody has San Fran, Hou, or SF left. It hard to predict what others might use, but it seems picking against KC will be done by a few people and picking against AZ might be more attractive to others then going against a colts team that looks playoff bound. How safe is Detroit? What does your models have them favored by? It’s tempting to just go against the chiefs every week, but maybe thats what everybody else is thinking to. With this information are you still recommending Det for my specific scenario?
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

The difference between NYJ and BUF in terms of safety is pretty minimal. A few percent at most. I mean, every bit counts, but it’s going to be easy for other factors to outweigh that. … So, do they? …

In your position (having fewer strikes than 85% of the pool) picking the *same* team as those with fewer strikes than you ensures you stay ahead of them. So there is some upside to picking the more popular BUF. Of course, you still want to pick a different team than your opponents with zero strikes, but that becomes less important than it is in a normal pool.

Though, thinking further, it seems likely that the winner of the pool will have 0 strikes, so you may want to disregard all those 1-strikers entirely, and just pretend it’s a 30-person pool. I think I just convinced myself to lean NYJ.
Scott

Hey Dave, great analysis as always.

There are 5 people left in my league, it’s double elimination (everyone has one loss), and there are no tiebreakers so it will extend into the playoffs if necessary.

So far I’ve used:

Bears/Bengals/Cowboys/Texans/49ers/Bucs/Vikings/Titans/Packers/Ravens/Falcons/Patriots

Of the four other teams remaining: everyone has used Dallas, everyone has used Green Bay, 3 guys have used the Patriots, 3 guys have used the Broncos, 2 have used the Bears, and 1 has used the 49ers.

My gut instinct before reading the article was to pick Buffalo because I need to save teams like Denver for possible playoff picks. Three of the other four players have basically used up every good team and have none of your first or 2nd tier options available other than the riskier selections like the Lions or Jets. So it’s possible we could lose 2-3 players this week, but I’d still like to save a team like Denver if possible.

Looking at my path now if I go with Denver this week…

Week 14: Browns (home Chiefs) or Seahawks (home Arizona)
Week 15: Raiders (home Chiefs) or Miami (home Jags)
Week 16: Redskins (vs. Eagles) or Colts (vs. Chiefs) or Carolina (vs. Oakland)
Week 17: Giants vs. Eagles

Do those remaining picks seem safe enough to burn Denver now? If I do burn Denver, and it goes into the playoffs, I’m probably done. Unless I find someone else to use in week 17 and save the Giants for the playoffs.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Wow, you are in great shape. Nice job.

I think with only 4 people, I’d go with DEN. Especially since you also have NE left in your quiver. The immediate value for DEN is about 15% higher than DET (who seems like your next best option here), and there’s no guarantee you’ll be able to get that back in a later week by saving DEN. Heck, your pool could be over this weekend. Unlikely, but definitely possible.
Frank_Elways

Dave, double picks start week 14. Do I go

13 GB; 16 DEN/CAR

13 DEN; 16 GB/CAR; or

13 NYJ or BUFF; 16 GB/DEN?
Chris

me) HOU, SDG, DAL, GNB, SFO, TAM, NWE, CHI, DET, BAL, ATL, CIN…DEN

1) DET, BUF, CHI, BAL, NYG, NYJ, MIN, GNB, HOU, NWE, ATL, CIN…(SFO/DAL)/DEN

2) HOU, NYG, DAL, BAL, SFO, NYJ, GNB, NWE, SEA, PIT, ATL, CHI…(DEN)/DET/BUF

3) HOU, NYG, CHI, BAL, SFO, TAM, NWE, GNB, SDG, SEA, DAL, DEN…(DET)/BUF

4) HOU, CIN, CHI, BAL, MIN, ATL, SFO, GNB, SDG, PIT, NOR, IND…(NWE/DAL)/DEN/BUF

pretty sure I’m going Den. I don’t think they’ll be all that popular amongst the other 4 remaining. I don’t really have any other good options. Jets, Bills, Panthers is about it, and I don’t like any of those options. I’m just hoping most of my pool takes Buf/Dal and they get upset.

Can you convince me not to take Denver here?

Rest of season thinking: Sea, Oak/Mia/NO, Car/Mia, Pit
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I think that’s a pretty solid path you have laid out, and the drop to the Jets is pretty steep. So I’d burn DEN.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, I think DET looks a lot more attractive since they won’t be needed in the playoffs, while DEN could very well win the Super Bowl. Given that I was already on the fence in a normal pool, that is enough to push me to DET in your spot. … Though, that is just when comparing DET & DEN. GB is also an option for you. They are definitely more attractive than DEN, so it’s down to DET or GB. Tough call. Since you say most others have been burning the playoff teams, maybe it’s not so bad for you to go ahead and burn one with GB, since they are safer than DET. Any idea how popular they will be? If it’s over about 20% I’d lean back to DET.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Well, without much other info to go on here, I’d say yes, DAL seems reasonable. They do stand to be pretty popular if everybody that can take them does, though. If you can be the only one on BAL I’d go with them instead.
MC

Hi

30 people left out of 361 so it looks like this is going to the end.
My picks: Chicago, Pittsburg, Dallas, San Francisco Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle, Balitmore, Atlanta, New England

Picks used by the rest of the pool.
ATL 29, GB 29, HOU 28, SF 28, DEN 27, NE 27, DAL 26, CHI 25, PIT 25, BAL 23,
NYG 21, CIN 19, SD 16, PHI 7, MIN 6, TB 5, SEA 4, NO 3, ARI 2, BUF 1, IND 1, NYJ 1, WAS 1

I have Houston left. After looking at the end of season paths you laid out – should I just look as Houston as a Denver replacement?

Here is my possible path

13 HOU (at TEN)
14 BUF (vs St Louis) /CLE (at KC)
15 TEN (vs NYJ)
16 WAS (at PHI)
17 NYG (VS PHI)

Thanks in advance.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I think with the double picks coming up you are smart to try to save DEN. Right now the money line for NYJ/DET are basically even, and our models have DET only a couple percent safer, so it’s pretty even between the two, but I lean slightly to DET. Though I’d be waiting as late as possible to monitor line movement.
cbowling01

Only 5 people left in my pool. One will be on SF, one on DAL, and two will be on DET or BUF. SShould I go NE or DAL. I have TB or CLE for next week and SEA for week 15 (used MIA). Should I sav NE for week 16 against JAX and use DAL now?
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

What was the question? How do I feel about banking on the Chiefs to lose a road game? I’m cool with that.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, I agree with Frank. I think the clear pick is the Ravens, since they are the safest no-future-value team you have left.
Frank_Elways

lol
Chris

why not Det and save Hou for week 15 or 16?
MC

I thought Houston might be considered “safer”.

And Detroit seens to either have bad luck or plays dumb.

“The Lions are definitely a passable pick, but if you have a
safer team available, you may be able to plan a path through the season
that avoids any risks this large.”
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I got the line from this incredibly useful page at SBRforum:
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/

That line is from “Legends” sportsbook. Yeah, I’ve never heard of them either.

I don’t think you need to take such a huge *gulp* about MIA vs JAX. While our old predictive ratings have CIN as safer, our new ones have MIA as safer, and the predicted future lines from Teddy Covers has MIA as safer.

I also don’t think there’e enough info here to answer your question. What teams do you have left? Who do you think your opponent is picking this week? The main decision boils down to whether DEN-TB-MIA-?-? is better or worse than BAL-TB-MIA-DEN/?-DEN/?. Without knowing who the ? are it’s kinda tough to decide.

Though, general philosophical point, I guess — if you’re heads up, it’s often better to just take the safe team, if the consequences of burning don’t manifest until 3 weeks later.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

The money lines and TR win odds are in the table in the post, though I guess more up to date info can be found here:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/money-line/

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-win-picks/

You never mentioned what teams you have, so hard to give any advice. But out of DET, NYJ, and CAR, the clear worst pick in CAR due to the obvious information in the table (money line, TR odds).
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, the playoffs really complicate things. Though keep in mind you have to survive that long for them to matter.

You don’t mention whether the other players have BUF left. Seems pretty important. At any rate, I would try to save at least one playoff team, so I guess I’d try to go with the safest non-playoff team that you don’t think any opponent would pick. Not sure who that would be from your comment, so maybe that ends up being worse than I expected, in which case DEN may be the pick.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I lean towards the first option, but third option with NYJ (assuming you want to avoid BUF this week because they’re popular in your pool) isn’t bad either. I mean, none of them are bad. You know what I mean.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Well, if this week’s picks play out as you expect (2 DAL, DEN, DET), then DEN only improves your immediate expected value by about 5% over picking NYJ. I think you can make more than that back up in Week 16. That’s my only argument against Denver. But you know it’s dangerous to assume the pick forecast is right, and that you can’t give full value to future weeks since you may not even reach them. So I think DEN is fine.
http://www.facebook.com/adam.melvin.94 Adam Melvin

Sorry I have Det, NYJ as only Tier 2 or Tier 1 teams available. Used all the exact teams you have on your friday blog except I have used Denver instead of Cincy if that helps. Thanks
Pete

I would probably go
Den – TB – Mia – Car – Sea
OR
Bal – TB – Mia – Den – Sea, so I guess the question is which is the stronger pairing (Den vs. TB and Car vs. Oak) or (Bal vs. Pitt and Den vs. Cle) when factoring in any immediate value with Denver this week? On the surface, it appears that per the %s, the drop-off is steaper with option two (plus the lost added value with Den happening sooner). Thoughts?
Frank_Elways

I haven’t checked the odds, but TEN v. NYJ seems way riskier than DET or BUF is this week. Plus no one will have Houston left for 15, a tough week, so you could sweep the pool up. Also, CAR over WAS in week 16.
Robert Ebin

Wow wow wow, I am in a pickle. The only team I have left in tier 2 is the jets. Six others left in pool. One guy has sf. The rest all have det and I think they will split between that and buffalo. What about cleveland since they are a 3 star win in your weekly picks? I am also the only team with chi left. Chi, cle, or nyj? Thanks for any help.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, you got that quote right, but I guess I wasn’t explicit enough. Houston is only marginally safer than DET this week (look at the line/odds), but they will be a way safer than TEN in week 15, so it seems like DET is the clear pick.

Yes, they are riskier than HOU. Yes, they may lose. So may TEN in week 15, you have to take risks some time.
Frank_Elways

yeah, its pretty close.

Regarding the third team, Dallas will actually be the big pick. I know you don’t second guess Vegas, but playing the hunch that Jax is underrated right now, and Buf are proven chokers.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I would go DAL. NE has slightly more immediate value than DAL (due to being the only one on NE vs. the second one on DAL), but its not much. The future value conserved by saving NE definitely outweighs that.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

The odds issue you see is because those models are not the only inputs into the TR Pick. It also includes info from our ATS models, and some other contextual info.

Hmm, with only DET and NYJ left, then I guess you have to take one of them. DET holds small edges in every aspect shown in the table, so they seem like the choice, but I’d wait and monitor the lines/odds if you can.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I think BAL/DEN is roughly as safe as DEN/CAR based on looking at odds from multiple sources. So I’d go with DEN, because I’d rather push my risk into the future if possible, especially heads up.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Given that none of those seem like they’ll be picked by your opponents, and all have similar future value, I’d just pick the safest, based on a balance of the money lines and our odds. That looks like the Jets right now, but I’d monitor the line/odds changes and wait as long as possible.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=5721756 Steph Pyle Simmons

Hello David

So I am have 81 people left of 2979. Big money pool!

I have all the teams left(except the Giants) in the list you put together for the rest of the season. The only problem I have to pick two this week and two in week 15 if I make it that far. I have Jets, Car, buffalo, CLE left also. Should I team one of these up with Den or pick two other teams. I know only 14 people have Denver left.

Thanks for your advice.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, nothing wrong with playing hunches if they work for you. They just don’t for me. Basically, whatever my hunch is, I should bet against it. The numbers are better than me at handicapping.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I would probably pair NYJ with DEN. The Bills are slightly safer according to the odds, but they are also more popular, which you’ll want to avoid. CAR and CLE are either very small favorites or underdogs according to Vegas, and will be useful going forward, so I’d definitely save them.
Frank_Elways

I’m usually in agreement with the your version of the Costanza Theorem, but its only 1 point.
Jig

Hey David, thanks for all the advice. I have to pick 2 teams this week, all of my previous picks are consistent with your Friday picks. Should I roll
with DEN and DET or DEN and NYJ?
Frank_Elways

Hey Dave, I had an stupid idea about the future value valuations that I wanted to run out there: Not all 1.0 points of future value are created even. The way it is quantified now, a team gets points by how many games where it looks like a strong pick. But this only looks at the team’s schedule in isolation from the rest of the games that week, and you therefore lose out on valuable context.

For example, Week 15. It was pretty obvious from early in the season that week 15 was a hard week. A few weeks ago, there were only two teams to pick, HOU and MIA. Now, CIN unexpectedly showed up cause the Eagles blew up, but still there are only 3 teams over 65% chance, less than any other week. So it turns out Houston was really valuable to hold onto. Yet they only got one point of future value, the same as the Broncos got this week when there are 6 teams that have >70% win odds. If you burned DEN, no big deal, pick GB, or NE, or the Niners, etc. But if you burn Houston, and a couple of other teams, youre not feeling so good. To me, Houston’s FV was for week 15 closer to a 10 than a 1 because there were so few alternatives. Likewise, teams whose point comes in a week with a lot of other picks should get discounted FV.

I’m sure there is a way to value FV that takes into account “hard weeks” without using the dreaded S word (subjectivity), but I was an English major, so I’ll leave that to you. Maybe fv points get a multiplier if they are in a week where the chart shows only a couple of games over a certain win percentage? Thanks for listening.

/gets off soapbox
/sits on couch, opens beer
/watches Andrew Luck just demolish Houston.
rg779

Thanks! Appreciate your input. Keep up the good work.
Bob Sanders

Your win odds for Denver are shockingly high, in my opinion. TB is a pretty decent team. I think Denver is unquestionably the better team, but it seems that this is a risky game too. I could see this being a 3 or 4 point game either way.
Steve

Is the 64% TR Odds listed above for BAL a type-o? They are listed at the top of tier two with a nice spead/ML combo, yet teams like NYJ and DET are listed below them with higher TR Odds. What gives?
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

David, I am in a large pool. I believe I have 2 of the strongest entries remaining in my pool. 250 players remain. I have the following teams still available to use. Packers, Patriots, Texans, Niners, Steelers, Seahawks, Bucs, Lions, Dolphins, Jets. We have to make double picks this week. Should I assume you would recommend taking: 13: Patriots/Packers; 14: Niners/Seahawks 15: Texans/Dolphins 16: Bucs/Panthers 17 Steelers/somebody. How should I play my second entry? I have all of the same teams available except Green Bay, so it is a little weaker. Would it be suicidal to try to hoard Packers and Patriots until week 16 and play 13: Niners/Lions 14 Bucs/Seahawks 15 Texans/Dolphins 16 Packers/Pats 17 Steelers/Saints
Steve

Also, I checked sbrforum who shows the only spread for BAL/PIT at Legends, but that spread isn’t actually on the site, nor is the ML. Please tell me again why DET and NYJ are riskier picks?
Kyle

Good call with GB did not think of that thanks. 4 others and me can still use GB. I think I would be either 3rd 4th or 5th on GB. So it is right around that 20%. We are also in Wisconsin and I think at least one of the Vikings fan will even take GB. I think I am leaning GB since it is safer and most teams have used them already.
Derrick James

Now im confused..I have Dallas and Denver..but who do I go with if what you state , Denver has future Value..whats your thoughts
OfficePoolKing

Hey David,
In a head-to-head situation, my opponent is definitely locking in SF. Unfortunately, I already burned them and used all the cards I had up my sleeve in recent weeks trying to put him away. That leaves me with none of the “safe” pikcs, (DAL, GB, DEN, NE, or SF). In a situation where I just want to be around next week, is there any clear “safe” pick among NYJ, BUF, and DET? Going forward, we’ll have similar teams remaining with me still having CHI so I’m hoping to mirror him at worst.
Robert Ebin

As always, thanks a bunch. I’ll make my pick at 12:58 on Sunday!
Adam Stein

68 people left..need to pick 2.. I have cowboys, jets, giants, bills and carolina left as options and am leaning towards the cowboys and jets.. what is your opinion?
Chris

Hey David, great work as always. Consumer confidence is down for me for the first time this week. I’m still in three pools … I’m heads-up in this scenario:
ME: BAL / NYG / DAL / DEN / SF / ATL / NE / GB / HOU / PIT / NO / CIN
THEM: DET / CIN / DAL / BAL / NYG / ATL / NE / GB / HOU / PIT / NO / DEN
I’m confident they will use SF, and confident I can take them down eventually based on their performance in other pools, but I need to survive now. I did kinda like Chicago. Please advise. Thanks
David

I am in a pool with 30 left. I expect 5 will be taking DEN. Should I still take DEN or should I pick NYJ or other? I have already used DAL and DET, and I expect a lot of people to take BUF. Thanks for the help!
AL

David: I’m down to the last 5 people in the pool. Good part is I’m the only one with Den available this week. Bad part is the teams you listed above for weeks 14 to 17, Cle/Mia/Car/NYG, all my opponents have those teams available (as do I). Question is, do I burn Den now and hope everyone else gets knocked out this week or take Det this week (only 2 others have Det) and save Den for week 16 (assuming I get that far).
rcc22

good question….similar situation…
Trey

I’m in a similar situation. 19 people left but only me and 1 other have Denver left. I think I’m going to take Denver this week and hope for upsets across the board everywhere else. Too much risk for me elsewhere. Detroit is too volatile for me and Indy is playing inspired football right now.
Trey

I would take Dallas, as Denver has future value and Dallas has none. Denver also has a lower ML this week. If David had Dallas available I’m sure he would take them over Denver this week, for the reasons stated above.
Trey

I agree. Not a home run choice at all but unless you have Baltimore, Dallas or Green Bay available it seems to be the best bet. Denver will likely be my pick this week but I’m far from confident in it.
Bob Sanders

I think I may go Carolina. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs. I think it’s less likely the Chiefs win against anyone, then the Bucs lose. This week is going to cause serious stress LOL
Scott

No one has picked Buffalo. I only think one other person, maybe two will take Buffalo; most of them take the safest pick available. My guess is two of them will take the 49ers; the other guys I’m not sure.

The other four people have picked…

Person 1: Texans/Bengals/Colts/Cardinals/Vikings/Bucs/Raiders/Packers/Seahawks/Steelers/Cowboys/Panthers

Person 2: Eagles/Patriots/Cowboys/Ravens/Giants/Falcons/49ers/Packers/Texans/Steelers/Broncos/Bengals

Person 3: Texans/Bengals/Bears/Falcons/Giants/Eagles/Patriots/Packers/Chargers/Steelers/Cowboys/Broncos

Person 4: Lions/Bengals/Cowboys/Texans/Steelers/Falcons/Patriots/Bears/Packers/Colts/Broncos/Cardinals
in it to win it

Still head to head, thanks to you!!!
I am leaning towards Denver this week but wanted to know your thoughts as my opponent doesnt have Denver as an option, should I try to play what he’ll play which will most likely be Detroit based on what we have left as options?
Me: HOU / NYG / CHI / BAL / SF / ATL / NE / GB / SD / PIT / DAL / CIN
Him: HOU / NYG / CHI / BAL / SF / ATL / GB / NE / DEN / PIT / DAL / CIN
Appreciate your perspective, as always!
http://www.facebook.com/trinityasset Tyler Vincent

Teams I have taken:

DET, SD, NOR, HOU, SF, ATL, NE, GB, SEA, PIT, DAL, CIN

This is the pool breakdown of what others have taken

Results – This Pool Only

Team Picks Picks

1 Bills 29.6% 8
2 Cowboys 22.2% 6
3 49ers 18.5% 5
4 Lions 7.4% 2

5 Jets 7.4% 2

6 Ravens 7.4% 27

7 Broncos 3.7% 1

8 Texans 3.7% 1

Who would you take this week?
Adam

Dave,

Please help. I started with ~5K entries and am now down to 267. Like most, I’ve used most of the good teams available, but still have Denver. I am debating between Denver (the “safe” pick), DET, BUF, and to a lesser degree CAR although given TR’s thoughts on CAR, that isn’t looking like such a good idea. There is an added wrinkle which is that starting next week, if 100 or more teams are still remaining, we are forced to pick two games each week. So, when going through the exact same exercise that you did (assuming Den this week or not) we have to come up with two possible plays in the coming weeks…..we also have been given the league-wide stats on which teams each entry has left. For instance, 104 still have Den left, 15 amazingly have the packers, 50 still have the cowboys, 60 still have the patriots, etc, etc…. In any case, your thoughts would be much appreciated – take Den now or hold off? (I’m guessing the added wrinkle of picking two teams starting next week has some impact that you nerds can help me quantify)
rcc22

i tend to agree…would love to get Davids opinion on this one….
Thaddeus

FYI, Legends is one of the most respected books in the industry. More importantly, the line in question was from before last Sunday’s games and is long gone. The final line is not out anywhere due to Roethlisberger’s unknown status.
Jon

4 left in my pool – all 3 of my competitors have used Dallas. I still have both Dallas and Denver available to me. based on your outline and advice, i’m to use Dallas. Or would you suggest Denver given they are a bit safer? would prefer to save Denver for next week or later if needed.
Thanks
Thaddeus

“The Cowboys looks like the clear best pick” – Dave

The only reason they aren’t the official pick is that they were already used. If you have Dallas, use them.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Right, forgot to mention that. When it’s close, it’s often better to go with the pick that causes you less stress, which is probably the one your gut likes.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, I’d probably go with that. … Though if you have to pick 2 EVERY week from now on, I might even consider DET/NYJ.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Hey, not stupid at all. And actually, I did something like that this week, just neglected to mention it in the post because it made a relatively small difference in the actual values in the table. Basically, I gave teams with close to the top win odds for a week 1 point, then dropped to 0.75 around 5-10% lower, and 0.5 another 5-10% below that. Specifically because, as you said, Week 15 looks so tough.

The reason I haven’t been doing that all year is basically just because it would take longer. However, in the offseason I’m hoping I’ll get a chance to write a program that automates creating this table for me. If I do that, I’ll definitely do more of a sliding scale for future value, where difficult weeks are taken into account automatically, in a way similar to what you are saying.
Patrick

Mr. Hess,
Great analysis as usual! Like almost all on here I truely appreciate your input. Do u mind giving me your opinion on future week pics. 20 ppl left that started with 600.
I have available:
NE, DEN, DET. SEA. TB. CLEV INDY. TENN. NO. BUFF. MIA. and some other less appealing teams….

Your input would be great!

Thanks Dave
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

If you ignore our models and just focus on the money line, that might be enough to swing the choice over to DET. I mean, as I said in the post, its basically a toss up between the two anyway.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Oh wow, I didn’t not realize that spread/line was imaginary. I assumed I could trust SBRforum’s page — that’s where I got the line. Thanks for the heads up. That definitely throws a wrench in the Baltimore pick.
Chris

Good point Frank. I agree with this, and it’s definitely something I’ve been considering as well when looking at FV.
ethics_m

I saw the response you just posted on Baltimore. If we have to lock our pick today, do you think the money line/odds on Baltimore are simply too unsettled to reliably figure where Baltimore fits in on the risk scale as compared with the Lions or Jets? Obviously the cause of this is all of the contradictory and ambiguous information on Roethlisberger’s status. I’m one of 3 left and the only one who can take Baltimore, but it’s hard to get a straight read on their chances. Thanks
Frank_Elways

I’d be pretty neat to have a computer just map out the entire season from the start. Stupid rookie standouts and injuries ruin everything.
Tyson

It is a good point, and something I had considered as a factor in picking teams in prior years, but haven’t considered this year.

I think the other thing to consider is whether a team is likely to be the top choice that week by the public. If so, then their future value should be discounted.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Wow, impressive list of teams left.

To be honest, there is no way I’m going to be able to put as much thought into this as you have, so I’m just going to have to give a couple quick answers.

Jets/Lions does seem like it’s pretty risky for the second entry on first glance, but given the premium on future value in your pool, it may not be crazy. If I just double count future value in my Big Survivor Spreadsheet (TM), I end up with these as the top picks: DAL, GB, DET, BUF/ATL/NYJ/BAL (basically tied). Given that you’re already using GB in the first entry, DET/NYJ seems a fine pairing.

As for saving NE/GB on the first entry, maybe you could think about just hoarding NE, but burning GB? It’s a bit less risky than dropping all the way to SF/DET. … Actually, for that matter, SF seems nearly as valuable (or even *more*) than GB.

One thing to think about is that if you use different teams for all 4 picks, you’re definitely increasing your risk of losing one of your entries. Though if you duplicate a safe team, you’re losing a big future value whale on both entries.

Sorry I am not more helpful here, but I just don’t have a good framework set up to analyze a situation like this …
Tyson

Quick question – where can I find the Teddy Covers lines for future weeks?
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Thaddeus posted the money quote.
Tyson

If Big Ben plays, my guess is that the line is still at least 4 or 4.5 Which puts them in the same ballpark as DET and NYJ.
Frank_Elways

That my be self-defeating though, cause the bonus points you give Houston, for example, will be negated by docking them for being popular (cause there are no other good picks), leaving you back at an unweighted future value. I think David is right to make it a two step process. Figure out the FV, and then take into account popularity as a separate phase of the analysis.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

No, no clearly safe picks among those teams. BUF and DET have slightly higher money lines and TR odds than NYJ. I’d wait as long as possible and monitor the money lines.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Heh. Maybe try 12:45 just in case you have brief internet connection problems.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, those would be the two I’d choose out of that list.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I guess I’d go DET or BUF or maybe NYJ, just based on lines/odds. Don’t think there are any real strategy considerations here, but if I’m missing something feel free to point it out.
rcc22

David
i still have Atlanta and New orleans for tonights game…whats your thoughts on me rolling the dice with Atlanta?
They really dont have much future value…if any..
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

There is nothing inherently wrong with splitting the pot, so there is no reason to increase your risk just to avoid a tie. That said, it’s very close between DET and DEN this week in my book, so going with DET and saving DEN is definitely a fine route, and if it looks more attractive you you I’d go that way.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, I think I’d push the advantage now and hope DET loses.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I think I’d go DEN in this case, given your lack of other options.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

“given TR’s thoughts on CAR” … umm, Vegas doesn’t like them either, it’s not just us.

If you may need to pick two teams going forward, future value becomes WAY more important, so I would save Denver and take a risk with DET or BUF. BUF seems to be pretty popular, so the math would say to go with DET.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Thanks. My problem was that I assumed lines would disappear from SBRforum’s odds page if they were taken down, but that apparently is not the case. I’ve edited the Baltimore sections of the post to reflect the lack of a current line.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Definitely Dallas here. I would not say that Denver is a bit safer –their money line is much higher than Denver’s, and I would trust that as much as I do our models.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I use these pages to help me plan the future:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tools/survivor-predictor/ (future projections from our traditional rankings, which are based on only this season’s data)

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/projections/standings/ (the team links on this page lead to pages that have future win odds on the right side … these are from our “New Rankings” which take into account preseason ratings)

http://www.survivorgrid.com/
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Like Tyler says, I’d place them as roughly even with the Jets or Lions based on current info. But I have a high degree of uncertainty here. Definitely not a terrible pick, and if Ben R sits, it looks really good.
OfficePoolKing

Thank you! I’m basically just trying to get by this week and roll with him until I can choose CHI or NYG.when another situation (read disaster) like this week arises.

Why’d the Jags have to roll with Henne? (who’d have thought a year ago anyone was scared of him?)
Adam

Thanks Dave, certainly the way I am leaning…..
http://www.facebook.com/adam.melvin.94 Adam Melvin

Faced with only NYJ, Det, and Car as the only real options I am not feeling good. I feel like if I am going to go down this week I would want to go down going against what I think are not NFL qb’s in Quinn and Lindley rather then go against Andrew Luck in a dome. Luck struggled in NY and NE but I think the dome helps him. Only 2 weeks ago Cincy was 3 point favorite and won by 22. As long as Brady Quinn is the KC qb I don’t see why that can’t happen again. I guess my question is why not go against a 3rd string NFL QB rather then trying to go against Luck, does anybody else share these thoughts? No game is a garantee but it seems like Lindley and Quinn are more likely to lose a game then Andrew Luck is.
in it to win it

Thanks so much!
Patrick

Mr. Hess,

A final question…..

When trying to outline a final week by week template of teams to use, should you look at which teams are/should be locked into playoff spots and therefore may rest starters in week 17?

For example: Is it worth saving NE or NYG for week 17 when they play lesser teams…however starters (Brady/Manning) may be rested.

Or use teams like NE now and save teams like NO or SEA for week 17 when it may be must win for them???

Thoughts please!!

Thanks Dave
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, good point about docking for popularity. I don’t have a good idea of how to do that, though, at least not in an automated fashion. It would definitely be a lot more complicated.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I get them here http://www.survivorgrid.com/
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

You can see where I ranked them in the table…
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yes, you should try to take that stuff into account.
Tyson

It isn’t easy to do for sure, but it may be something you just want to think about for the next few weeks when making a pick.

I’m not sure if you could quantify this, but here is how I am thinking through the next 3 weeks. Maybe this will be helpful.

Next week, there are 3 teams that most people still have available that are above 65% – TB, CLE, and SEA. Based on your win percentages, Tampa should be the biggest favorite followed by Cleveland and Seattle. The fewest people have used Cleveland, then Tampa, then Seattle. I think Tampa and Cleveland will be neck-and-neck for the top pick. It doesn’t really matter much since these 3 teams aren’t candidates to use this week, but if you are thinking of using DEN this week because you have TB or CLE lined up for next week, you may want to rethink that strategy – you’ll probably end up using SEA, NYJ, or IND to avoid the crowd.

Now look at week 15. Most people have used CIN and HOU. MIA, SEA, and DET are the only widely available teams above 60%, with hardly anybody using MIA yet. I bet MIA is the runaway popular team.

Looking at week 16, I’d say it is between CAR and WAS for top pick. IND may be a nice team to have available.

You might be able to use ESPN pick percentages to figure out who is popular. ESPN publishes their pick percentages for the entire season. The core numbers are worthless, but you could look at recent trends in the pick percentages to see where the public is heading.

Just some ideas – sorry for the ramblings.
Tyson

My guess is that Houston won’t be popular because so many people have already used them.
Frank_Elways

That is probably correct in this instance. However I think it is a mistake to muddle popularity and FV. Basically the philosophy here involves weighing three factors: win percentage, popularity and future value. To reduce that to two factors by combining popularity and FV (if you can even figure out a way to do that accurately) risks losing clarity and resolution, giving us less data points rather than more.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

He’s not suggesting combining popularity and future value. He is (correctly) pointing out that future value is a function of both future win odds (which I am taking into account) and future popularity (which I am not currently taking into account).
Kristen Mendoza

Hi. I’m in a pool of 8. I’ve already used green bay & san fran but not dallas. Out of tge 7, 5 can pick dallas, 1 still has green bay & 3 still have san fran. I am the only one wuth new england & denver left. I would left to get Dallas out of the way but leary becsuse you never know with them. What would you recommend?
Frank_Elways

I just don’t see how you get any more information other than distortion out of factoring in future popularity. From a beginning of the season perspective, won’t all the good teams
Don

Hey Dave I have a question. Cleveland has 71% TR win odds that take into account the point spread. How come they are not a tier two pick? I haven’t noticed a three star team being placed in the avoid group unless they have a high % of people picking them thereby decreasing their value. This does not seem to be the case with Cleveland.
Frank_Elways

(Sorry, I hit submit before I was done)
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

My guess is a big portion of your pool will pick Dallas. If you want to maximize your average expected value, Denver would probably be the best pick. If you want to maximize your odds of surviving all year (but usually winning a smaller share of the pool), then Dallas is probably the best pick.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, there is always a danger of making the FV calculation too black box, true.

“Say the schedule had Dallas playing the Eagles in week 15 and Houston was playing Denver or something. Any extra weight Dallas would get for having a winnable game in a hard week would be negated by how popular they would be.”

No, *all* the value wouldn’t. But some of the value would (IF we get it right, which is a big IF). Which would be correct. If Dallas is super popular, they don’t have that much value.

It would definitely be a tough nut to crack, which is why I’m skeptical that I could actually implement it well enough to be useful. But the *concept* is definitely correct.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Because I use a blend of the TR win odds and the betting market money lines. The last lines I saw for that game has Oakland as the favorite in that game, and I think it would be absolutely ridiculous to pick an underdog at this point.
Frank_Elways

Understood. I didn’t mean all the FV, just the bump that we are talking about giving them for playing in a week where there are few alternatives (the “hard week” bump).

its kind of a paradox. teams that have high win% games in hard weeks will be popular (at least early in the season, or if they are otherwise mediocre), and teams that have high win% in “easy weeks” will not be as popular (especially good teams later in the season), which would raise their future value. So there are good things about that team and there are bad things about selecting that team. But if we average them into one “FV” number, we only see the average, as opposed to two competing factors that you would then consider separately in the narrative part of your analysis. Anyway, that’s my pitch for having FV be solely win% based (apart from the practical hardship of implementing it.) thanks for putting up with me.
Tyson

One of the biggest things I learned this season was that you get value in staying off the popular teams twice. If you can get the Expected Value in your favor (or even close) to stay off the popular team, it may pay big dividends now OR down the road. Like staying off Atlanta in week 6. Atlanta ended up winning, so if you stayed off Atlanta you didn’t gain any value at that time. But because so many people picked them, few had them available in week 11. So you had a team that almost nobody else had left and a prime spot to use them – a big plus in EV for you. Of course, they almost lost both of those games – but that doesn’t change the math.

As far as future value goes, I think the take away is that if a team has only 1 game with good FV left, and you think there is a good chance they will be very popular that week, you may as well treat them as if they have no future value. Kind of the reverse of the Atlanta situation, you’d use the team before everyone else does, rather than after everyone uses them.
Jeff G

I’ve managed to get to heads up. The pool started with 30 players, and we can lose twice before being eliminated. The other remaining player already has 1 loss, while I’m yet to lose. We had to pick two teams for a number of the early weeks in the pool, but it’s just one pick a week here to the end. If we both make it through week 17, we split the prize pool 50/50 even if I’m undefeated and he has 1 loss.

I have BAL, DET, BUF & NYJ available this week.

The other guy has used BAL, but has DET, BUF & NYJ available.

Going forward I have similar picks available as what you do: 14 CLE (vs KC), 15 MIA (vs JAC), 16 CAR (vs OAK), 17 I’ve used NYG so looking at SEA or TEN

I’m leaning towards BAL this week, assuming Roethlisburger is definitely out. I don’t have to submit my pick until midnight on Sat.

Do you think BAL is a wise choice, or should I pick one of the other 3 (DET, BUF or NYJ), hoping to pick the same team as my opponent? I’d probably lean towards BUF if I don’t go with BAL, as I have no faith in DET or NYJ.
ThaddeusB

Yah, SBRodds is the bets free line service, but it isn’t perfect. (There is no real line on Clev/Oak either)
Shish

5 left including myself. Only 1 person has Dallas left. No one has Hou, SF, NE, Den, or GB left. Also, only 1 other person has used Detroit. Besides that one person no one has used Buffalo, NYJ, or Det.

I am leaning Detroit but the Buffalo line has also creeped up to -6. Thoughts?
Derrick James

Oh..Why does Dallas have to have Tony.’im gonna toss 2 picks’ Romo But then again..they are playing the Eagles..any word on Vick coming back this week ? Or they stay with the rookie and ride it out seeing the seasons lost and they need to evaluate this kid
Gmen3224

13 people left. I have a buyback still available(only 1 of 2). Have available cowboys,
Ravens, jets for this week? Only 3 people have pats available. Best choice?
johnny

Hey man, Basically have same teams left as you, but I used denver instead of NE last week, should i play NE…only undefeated in a three strike league
chris

Dave,
What is your opinion on the line move in the Bills/Jags game. Up to -7 (+115) at 5Dimes. I presume this is on the news that both Shorts and Blackmon missed practice yesterday. Latest out of Jax is that they participated this morning. Does this line move/information change your opinion of them at all?
Thanks!
RobertFee

David,
66 of 1120 left in single elimination. Three options this week are Jets, Lions, and Bills. All are 4-7 home teams. Lions are playing the best opponent. Of these which do you prefer? Thanks
Sax

Hey David, great analysis. Here’s my situation:

Still a large number of people left (over 60!) in the pool, but I have good options left. Basically, I see my two paths as this:

A) 13 NE (@ MIA); 14 SF (vs MIA), 15 CIN (@ PHI), 16 TB (vs STL), 17 PIT (vs CLE)

or

B) 13 SF (@ STL); 14 TB (vs PHI), 15 CIN (@ PHI), 16 NE (@ JAC), 17 PIT (vs CLE)

Other facts to consider.

1) Other notables I still have available: CHI, IND, SEA, MIA. In the rest of the pool,

2) Of the 63 people in the pool (including me), 9 have NE, 25 have SF, 13 have CIN, 23 have PIT, 55 have TB, 14 have CHI, 50 have SEA, 38 have IND, 57 have MIA.

Based on the size of my pool, I think that option A is the safer path. We’ll obviously go to the end and probably split whatever is left. NE seems like a great choice this week because it won’t be a popular pick. I also like the option of TB or IND in week 16. I hope you can let me know what you think, I’d really appreciate it. And keep up the good work!
TP

I wouldn’t save NE for week 17. They really won’t have anything to play for, most likely.
Survivor

Pittsburgh has ruled out Big Ben.
Is Baltimore a better pick than Detroit assuming I have no tier 1 teams left.
rcc22

Vick is out…
possibly for the season…but def. out for this game
rcc22

David…i have both available in separate pools….Dallas is your pick?

Or should i go Denver? want to save Denver for next week…so maybe Dal & Jets/Car/Bills/Chicago/Detroit?

what are the best options of those?
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Ah, gotcha. I see what you mean about negating the bonus now.

However, I think a big part of whether a team will be popular just comes down to how often they’ve been good choices previously. We might be able to get a reasonable discount going for that aspect.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, makes sense. Though on your first part, I think just the fact that they have future value should take care of the “second” bonus, right? What I mean is, when we thought about avoiding ATL the first time, the future value was part of that calculus already.

Man, I am getting pretty excited to work on an automated Survivor tool now…
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

That splitting rule sucks, man. You should be rewarded for having no strikes.

Hmm, interesting dilemma. The best pick is definitely “same as opponent”, but you can’t be sure who he’ll choose. It seems like the odds of BUF have gotta be around 40%, though.

Given the recent news that R-Berger is out, I think I’d just go with the safer BAL pick, unless you can manage to find out who he’s picking via espionage or mind reading.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Of those two, I think going with the one you think will be less popular is the smart play (assuming you don’t have BAL, DAL, etc)
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Really? It’s not obvious from the post that I recommend the Cowboys?
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

New post here: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-13-nfl-survivor-friday-update-maybe-well-keep-that-arrow-in-the-quiver

As always, table lists teams in order of our preference for generic large pools.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

New post is here: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-13-nfl-survivor-friday-update-maybe-well-keep-that-arrow-in-the-quiver

5dimes seems to be the only major book with them at 7.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

New post here answers your question: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-13-nfl-survivor-friday-update-maybe-well-keep-that-arrow-in-the-quiver
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I agree with you, NE seems slightly better, based on the future paths. FYI new post is up: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-13-nfl-survivor-friday-update-maybe-well-keep-that-arrow-in-the-quiver
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, I think so. New post: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-13-nfl-survivor-friday-update-maybe-well-keep-that-arrow-in-the-quiver
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

New post is up: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-13-nfl-survivor-friday-update-maybe-well-keep-that-arrow-in-the-quiver
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Seattle will be significantly higher favorite over Arizona than Cleveland will be favored over Oakland. Not even close. Seattle will be higher priced favorite than Tampa Bay too. San Francisco and Seattle will each be -10.5 next week. Tampa might be -9; Cleveland no higher than -7. Probably -6.5.
Tony

Hey Dave-
In a pick a winner and loser pool. I can take Dallas to win, Vikings to lose or 49ers over Rams? I’d prefer to pick one game, but Dallas and Greenbay look too good to pass up…Thoughts?
http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Adam, you mentioned you do not have a strong entry. The alternative way you actually can win your pool is to take Denver this week and Survive. Next week you take TB and Seattle which I assume you have available because you mentioned you have burned the good teams. Your goal is to get to week 15 still alive. In week 15 Miami will be picked by 90% of the pool in a double pick scenario, most likely with Cincy, or New Orleans. To WIN your pool you do NOT take Miami in week 15 like 90% of your pool. You go OPPOSITE and take the 7 pt underdog Jacksonville as part of your entry. If you’re right, you may walk away with your pot. This is the strategy of how a weak entry wins (rather than splits) a large survivor pool. I only ask for 10% for providing your contrarian roadmap to you- Please thank me in 3 weeks
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=5721756 Steph Pyle Simmons

Thanks for the advice. You still like these picks? I know your new article just changing to Det (dont have) and only 14 out of the 81 have den. What about going with the JETS and BUFFALO and saving DEN?
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Interesting. Yeah, picking one game is clearly going to be much safer, so I would do that if possible. You can see the latest odds here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/money-line/

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-win-picks/

Based on combining the latest Vegas and TR odds estimates, I’d guess your chances of surviving with the SF/STL combo pick are around 76%, and your chances with the DAL/MIN pair are about 63% [83% DAL win * 76% MIN loss], so taking DAL/MIN is waaaay riskier. Obviously the problem is that SF/STL uses more future value. I guess you’ll have to decide if it’s worth it, as I don’t know what you have left.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

That’s an option, sure. I still lean towards the safer DEN, but not sure which is really better in your case.
zink

Pick two (midseason survivor)….ravens jets bears 49ers…thanks!