Week 11 NFL Projections Update: Broncos Have A Real Shot & Giants Schedule Gives Cowboys The Edge in NFC East

November 22, 2011 - by David Hess

Welcome to our NFL projections update, in which we check out how the games of the past few days have impacted the NFL playoff outlook. Let’s start with the most practical and fun part of the post — the updated playoff forecast.

Projected Playoff Seeding & Super Bowl Winner

As we do every week, let’s use our NFL season projections to take a look at how the playoffs will shake out, if our ratings and forecasts end up being spot on.

First, the seeding:

Seed	AFC Team	Record	Seed	NFC Team	Record
#1	New England Patriots	12-4	#1	Green Bay Packers	15-1
#2	Baltimore Ravens	11-5	#2	San Francisco 49ers	13-3
#3	Houston Texans	11-5	#3	New Orleans Saints	11-5
#4	Oakland Raiders	8-8	#4	Dallas Cowboys	10-6
#5	Pittsburgh Steelers	11-5	#5	Chicago Bears	11-5
#6	Cincinnati Bengals	10-6	#6	Detroit Lions	10-6

Dropped Out				New York Giants	9-7

Remember, the records shown are the averages of all possible outcomes. As such, they’ll be shaded a little bit towards an 8-8 record. In real life, a few teams will outperform their averages, we should end up with more extreme win totals, and it’s possible the AFC West leader may actually have a winning record.

If we choose the winner in each playoff matchup by advancing the team with the higher Super Bowl win odds, here’s what the postseason will look like (winning teams in bold):

Wildcard Round

– Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
– Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders
– Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
– Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys

Division Round

– Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
– Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
– Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
– New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

Conference Championships

– Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
– San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl

– Green Bay Packers over New England Patriots

There’s not much change here from last week. The biggest news is that the Giants’ loss to the Eagles has allowed the Cowboys to pull back ahead of them in the race for top spot the NFC East. Dallas has a 62% chance to win the division, versus Eli and company’s 31%. While the teams are currently tied in the standings, New York’s remaining schedule is absolutely brutal, plus Dallas has a slightly higher predictive rating.

The Patriots continued their rise past Baltimore. The two teams are actually very close to tied in predicted wins, and Baltimore has better odds of winning the AFC’s top seed (39% to 25%) due to a slightly easier schedule, but because New England’s 11.6 wins round up to 12 while Baltimore’s 11.4 round down to 11, we’ll slot the Patriots in at #1 in the AFC.

San Diego’s free fall continued, as their fifth straight loss dropped them a full two games behind the Raiders in the AFC West. Oakland is now the clear favorite to win the division at 46%, and Denver is now second at 27%, with the Chargers in third at only 23%.

Changes In Playoff Odds For All Teams

Of course, the projections are a bit more nuanced than simply a thumbs up or a thumbs down on a team’s playoff chances. Below, we lay out every team’s predicted percent chance of making the playoffs, along with how that changed due to last week’s games.

The table shows projected playoff odds before this weekend, current NFL playoff odds, and the difference between those values, plus each team’s projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. It’s sorted by the change in playoff odds, so you can quickly see which teams had the best and worst Week 10:

AFC	Last Wk	Now	Change	SB Win%	NFC	Last Wk	Now	Change	SB Win%
Oakland	36.9%	47.7%	10.8%	0.2%	Dallas	50.4%	63.5%	13.1%	1.5%
Baltimore	87.5%	95.6%	8.1%	14.2%	Atlanta	51.3%	56.5%	5.2%	1.7%
Denver	21.9%	28.5%	6.6%	0.2%	Chicago	81.1%	85.9%	4.8%	2.7%
Cincinnati	60.9%	65.2%	4.3%	1.9%	Philadelphia	6.1%	8.3%	2.2%	0.2%
New England	93.0%	97.2%	4.2%	17.1%	Seattle	1.6%	2.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Pittsburgh	91.0%	94.6%	3.6%	6.7%	San Francisco	99.6%	100.0%	0.4%	8.3%
Houston	92.4%	95.0%	2.6%	8.1%	Detroit	57.6%	57.8%	0.2%	2.0%
Miami	0.3%	0.7%	0.4%	0.0%	Green Bay	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	29.4%
Cleveland	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	St Louis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Tampa Bay	1.1%	0.9%	-0.2%	0.0%
Jacksonville	1.5%	0.4%	-1.1%	0.0%	Carolina	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%
Kansas City	5.8%	4.0%	-1.8%	0.0%	Minnesota	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%
Tennessee	21.5%	18.2%	-3.3%	0.4%	Washington	1.2%	0.2%	-1.0%	0.0%
Buffalo	15.5%	7.6%	-7.9%	0.2%	Arizona	1.2%	0.1%	-1.1%	0.0%
NY Jets	34.7%	21.7%	-13.0%	0.6%	New Orleans	92.7%	90.4%	-2.3%	6.2%
San Diego	36.8%	23.4%	-13.4%	0.3%	NY Giants	55.7%	34.3%	-21.4%	0.7%

The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes

To be honest, this thing is just about wrapped up. The Colts aren’t expected to make it to two wins, so even if all the other teams lose out, Indianapolis can coast to a victory:

Team	Current Wins	TR Rank	Future SOS	Proj Wins
Indianapolis	0	31	2.3	1.4
St Louis	2	32	0.9	3.4
Minnesota	2	23	1.5	4.1
Carolina	2	26	-0.7	4.3

The Colts host the Panthers this weekend, which is their easiest remaining game. If Carolina doesn’t hand a win to Indianapolis, I think it’s safe to say that the race is over.