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November 9, 2011 - by David Hess
Welcome to the Week 10 installment of our series of Survivor advice columns, where we use a data-driven strategy to get an edge in NFL Survivor contests. This post includes analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models and other relevant data.
This discussion below is also meant to complement our Survivor Predictor tool, which provides a grid view of win odds predictions by week, from now until the end of the season. This presentation of prediction data will help you quickly grasp the current week’s best Survivor pick options, and will explain our logic in making our official pick.
Well, that was an interesting week.
Our original official pick last Thursday was the Oakland Raiders, by a hair over the Dallas Cowboys. After our post went live, the line on Oakland dropped from -9 to -7, probably partly due to Darren McFadden’s injury. Given how close the choice was in the first place, that new info tipped the scales towards the Cowboys, and we issued an update in the wee hours of Friday night suggesting that readers switch their picks over to Dallas. However, we didn’t change our “Official Pick” because we didn’t want to edit the original content.
Sure enough, Sunday rolled around and the Raiders got Tebowed, while the Cowboys handled the Seahawks. Our Official Pick lost, but our latest recommendation won. How do we handle this moving forward?
We’re obviously not going to try and hide the Oakland loss, but we feel that this column will be most useful to readers if we make our future picks assuming that we chose Dallas last week. After all, anyone who didn’t manage to switch their pick from Oakland to Dallas has been eliminated, so their interest in the column has probably decreased dramatically. Plus, we made it clear that the Cowboys really were our top choice entering Sunday, so we don’t feel like we’re pulling a bait and switch here.
So, for everyone who picked the Cowboys, how did this weekend play out?
Not too shabby. There were no huge upsets, but there were several smaller ones that combined to make this the fourth toughest week to survive, as 18% of Yahoo contests were eliminated. About half of those were thanks to Miami knocking off Kansas City, in a game we gave the STAY AWAY label to.
Time for the heart of our post, the table showing the factors that influence our decision:
| Team | Opponent | Spread | TR Odds | Yahoo! Pick % | Future Val | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | vs Minnesota | -13.0 | 85% | 11.6% | 3 | |
| Philadelphia | vs Arizona | -10.5 | 75% | 56.3% | 1 | |
| San Diego | vs Oakland | -7.0 | 70% | 3.0% | 0 | PICKED |
| Baltimore | at Seattle | -6.5 | 71% | 17.5% | 3 | |
| Dallas | vs Buffalo | -5.5 | 61% | 0.4% | 0 | PICKED |
| Miami | vs Washington | -4.0 | 68% | 0.7% | 0 | |
| San Francisco | vs NY Giants | -3.5 | 65% | 0.5% | 5 | |
| Houston | at Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 64% | 1.3% | 1 | PICKED |
| Carolina | vs Tennessee | -3.5 | 61% | 0.4% | 1 | |
| Kansas City | vs Denver | -3.5 | 59% | 0.8% | 0 | |
| Jacksonville | at Indianapolis | -3.0 | 69% | 3.3% | 1 | |
| Pittsburgh | at Cincinnati | -3.0 | 53% | 0.9% | 2 | PICKED |
| Chicago | vs Detroit | -2.5 | 65% | 0.2% | 3 | |
| Cleveland | vs St Louis | -2.5 | 60% | 1.4% | 0 | |
| NY Jets | vs New England | -1.0 | 56% | 0.1% | 1 | |
| Atlanta | vs New Orleans | -1.0 | 51% | 0.0% | 2 |
Future Val = the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or greater, based on our NFL Survivor Tool.
Teams We Already Picked: Houston Texans (WIN), Pittsburgh Steelers (WIN), San Diego Chargers (WIN), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WIN), New England Patriots (WIN), Cincinnati Bengals (WIN), New Orleans Saints (WIN), New York Giants (WIN), Dallas Cowboys* (WIN)
*Our original official pick in Week 9 was the Oakland Raiders. However, we issued a an update to the post well in advance of Sunday morning that suggested readers switch to Dallas. Because Oakland lost while Dallas won, we feel that this series will be more useful going forward if we assume Dallas was our official pick.
Green Bay Packers (vs Minnesota Vikings) — The Packers are by far the biggest Vegas favorite, and have TR win odds 10% higher than any other team, yet they are only being picked by 11.6% of Yahoo. That looks great. The only concern here is that they look like the safest choice in week 11 (vs TB), 14 (vs OAK), and 15 (vs KC) as well. But the gap between this game and the rest this week looks to be bigger than the gap in future weeks. This looks like a great week to use the Packers.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs Arizona Cardinals) — The Eagles are the second biggest favorites of the week according to both Vegas and our own models, but there’s a big drop off from #1 to #2. Combine that with the fact that over half the public is picking the Eagles, and this is a case where we want to STAY AWAY and root for the upset.
San Diego Chargers (vs Oakland Raiders) — We’re already down to a team that is favored by nearly a touchdown less than Green Bay, so there would have to be some very compelling reasons to take on that additional risk. In the Chargers’ case, there are two main positives: they have no real future value, and only 3% of the public is picking them. The Chargers are probably the best non-Packers choice, but we don’t think the risk is worth it for most of you who still have Green Bay available. We’ve already used San Diego, so the issue is moot for us.
Baltimore Ravens (@ Seattle Seahawks) — The Ravens have a similar line and win odds as the Chargers, but are much more popular, and have much more future value (especially Week 14 vs IND, and Week 16 vs CLE). If you have both San Diego and Baltimore available, there is no logical reason to pick the Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys (vs Buffalo Bills) — Here we come to the first totally unpopular pick, which is an attractive quality if you’re in a gigantic pool. Only 0.4% of Yahoo players are choosing the Cowboys, probably because many already used them (as we have). They also have basically no future value. The problem is that we’ve dropped down into an even lower tier in terms of spread and win odds. Their positives are enough to make up for the difference between their win odds and those of the Ravens, but not enough to vault them over the Chargers or Packers. So, they are clearly a third tier choice.
Miami Dolphins (vs Washington Redskins) — Miami’s profile looks very much like that of Dallas, with main differences being that Vegas thinks the Cowboys are the safer pick, while our models indicate that Miami has an easier game. Those two factors cancel each other out, so they have similar value to Dallas — not the worst pick, but clearly behind the Chargers and Packers.
This is one of the easier picks so far this season. The Packers have an enormous win odds edge over the next safest choice (the Eagles), yet are only being picked by about 12% of the public.
Green Bay does have some future value, but using our NFL Survival Predictor you can see that there are pretty good alternatives to the Packers in every future week — specifically, the 49ers in Week 11, Ravens in Week 14, and Bears in Week 15.
For those of you who already picked the Packers, or who simply want to make a different choice, here’s our ranking of the best options this week:
1. Green Bay vs Minnesota
2. San Diego vs Oakland
3. Dallas vs Buffalo
4. Miami vs Washington
5. Baltimore @ Seattle
There’s a big gap between #1 and #2 there, and another one between #2 and #3. Really, we recommend nearly everyone choose Green Bay.
The main exception would be if you’re in a pool with only a few other players, and you are extremely sure that Green Bay will be picked my more than half the players. In that case, we’d pick the Eagles and root for the Vikings to upset the Packers.
Of course, as always feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section.
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