Super Bowl Prop Bet Review: Profitable!
- 2 comments - NFL - posted by David Hess on February 6, 2012
Over the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl we analyzed a dozen Super Bowl prop bets, using actual data rather than just our guts to make each pick.
We’re all about accountability here — that’s why we publish detailed information on our historical prediction accuracy for every sport. So, it’s time to tally up the results of our prop picks and see how the night went from a forecasting standpoint.
Spoiler alert: we came out ahead.
Leans Did Better Than Firm Picks, But Both Were Profitable
The posts that these picks came from can be found in the NFL archive from our blog, if you want to see the math behind the choices. For today, we’re only concerned about the results:
| Type | Prop Bet | Pick | Odds | Result | Net (to win 1) | Net (betting 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | Total Yards On Giants First Punt | 48 – 55 yards | +325 | loss | -0.31 | -1 |
| Firm | Total Pass Completions | Over 49.5 | -113 | WIN | 1 | 0.88 |
| Firm | Total 3rd Down Conversions By Both Teams | Over 11 | -118 | -- | -- | -- |
| Firm | Which Team Will Make More Field Goals? | NE | -110 | loss | -1.1 | -1 |
| Firm | Team To Score Longest Touchdown | NYG | +105 | loss | -0.95 | -1 |
| Firm | First Team To Score | NYG | -101 | WIN | 1 | 0.99 |
| Firm | Will First Kickoff Result In A Touchback? | No | +156 | WIN | 1 | 1.56 |
| All Firm Picks | 3-3-1 | +0.64 | +0.43 | |||
| Lean | Will A Team Score 3 Consecutive Times? | (lean No) | +165 | loss | -0.61 | -1 |
| Lean | Will Kelly Clarkson Flub National Anthem? | (lean No) | -900 | WIN | 1 | 0.11 |
| Lean | Team To Score First Wins The Game | (lean Yes) | -165 | WIN | 1 | 0.61 |
| Lean | BenJarvus Green-Ellis Rushing Yards | Under 47.5 | -104 | WIN | 1 | 0.96 |
| Lean | Sacks By Giants | Under 2.5 | -141 | WIN | 1 | 0.71 |
| All Leans | 4-1-0 | +3.39 | +1.39 | |||
| TOTAL ALL PICKS & LEANS | 7-4-1 | +4.03 | +1.82 | |||
We’ve included two ways to evaluate the net profit above. The first Net column shows the loss or gain if you would have sized every bet in order to win 1 unit. For example, we would have had to bet 9 units on the -900 Kelly Clarkson prop, and only 0.64 units on the +156 ‘first kickoff a touchback‘ prop. The second Net column shows the loss or gain if you simply bet 1 unit on each prop.
As you can see, using either accounting method, our picks turned out well overall. We had 7 wins, 4 losses, and one push, and turned either 4 units or 1.8 units of profit, depending on how you measure.
On the bets where we thought we only had a small edge, we nailed almost every pick. On the propositions where we felt there was a strong edge, we actually performed slightly worse, but were still profitable.
Apparently the lesson for next year is that our analysis was much better for directional clues than for finding the true size of an edge. Still, not much to complain about here, and we can’t wait to apply these same techniques next season!
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http://twitter.com/marcbryanjacob Marc Jacob
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http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess
