Week 3 NFL Projections Update: 5 New Projected Playoff Teams

September 27, 2011 - by David Hess

Now that a few weeks of NFL play are under our belts, and we have some actual on-field performance to judge teams by, it’s time to take a look at how things have changed since we made our 2011 NFL preseason predictions.

Which teams have improved their stock with hot starts? Which have bombed? Have the front runners in either conference changed? To answer those questions, we’ll compare the current NFL projected standings to those from our preseason post.

This week will be all about how things have changed since the start of the season, but in coming posts we’ll be examining the week to week rises and falls, so we can see exactly how big an impact each weekend’s slate of games had on the playoff picture.

Playoff Odds: 5 Biggest Increases & 5 Worst Declines

Biggest Gainers (chance of making playoffs)				Biggest Losers (chance of making playoffs)
Team	Preseason	Current	Change	Team	Preseason	Current	Change
Detroit	24.2%	72.8%	+48.6%	Miami	49.2%	6.7%	-42.5%
Buffalo	26.3%	66.6%	+40.3%	Indianapolis	43.1%	3.1%	-40.0%
Houston	24.3%	62.4%	+38.1%	Atlanta	63.4%	26.8%	-36.6%
Oakland	20.9%	51.3%	+30.4%	Minnesota	37.3%	7.9%	-29.4%
San Francisco	40.6%	65.0%	+24.4%	Kansas City	25.1%	0.7%	-24.4%

The biggest surprise here has to be Buffalo. We were a bit wary of our low projections for Houston, and noted as much in the official preseason projections post. And Detroit was a popular pick to improve this year. But Buffalo? They were only the favorites in one of their three wins, and few gave them a chance against New England.

It’s interesting to note how many pairs of teams from the same division there are here. It makes sense: if one team is stronger than we expected, all their division foes will have lower playoff odds than we originally projected. (And of course that reasoning works in reverse as well.

Top Seed Odds: 5 Biggest Increases & 5 Worst Declines

Biggest Gainers (chance of earning top seed)				Biggest Losers (chance of earning top seed)
Team	Preseason	Current	Change	Team	Preseason	Current	Change
Green Bay	18.2%	45.2%	+27.0%	Atlanta	16.4%	1.8%	-14.6%
Detroit	3.0%	18.5%	+15.5%	Miami	9.9%	0.1%	-9.8%
Buffalo	3.2%	16.3%	+13.1%	NY Giants	12.3%	5.4%	-6.9%
Baltimore	17.8%	27.5%	+9.7%	Philadelphia	7.7%	0.9%	-6.8%
Houston	2.2%	8.7%	+6.5%	Indianapolis	6.2%	0.0%	-6.2%

The main story here is what great shape Green Bay is in. That’s what will happen when:

– you’re the best team in the conference,
– you’re undefeated, and
– you’ve already personally dealt a loss to the second best team (New Orleans), meaning you’ve got the tiebreaker edge.

Not to mention the only other undefeated team in your conference:

– is worse than you,
– is in your division, so you’ll get two shots to knock them down and
– has one of the tougher remaining schedules, while yours is one of the easier ones.

Compare that to the Bills, who are the only undefeated team in the AFC. They have a small problem in that they likely aren’t the best team in their division, let alone the conference. So their current position is great, but they’re much less likely to maintain it than the Packers are.

On the Losers side, check out the Eagles. The media was ready to anoint them kings of the NFC East after all their free agent signings, but their sputtering start due to Vick’s (inevitable?) injury has left them is pretty poor shape.

Super Bowl Odds: 5 Biggest Increases & 5 Worst Declines

Biggest Gainers (chance of winning Super Bowl)				Biggest Losers (chance of winning Super Bowl)
Team	Preseason	Current	Change	Team	Preseason	Current	Change
Baltimore	8.8%	16.3%	+7.5%	Atlanta	8.4%	1.5%	-6.9%
Detroit	1.3%	7.0%	+5.7%	Miami	5.4%	0.3%	-5.1%
Green Bay	9.6%	15.3%	+5.7%	Indianapolis	3.6%	0.1%	-3.5%
Buffalo	1.9%	6.7%	+4.8%	San Diego	4.9%	1.7%	-3.2%
New England	8.4%	12.3%	+3.9%	Pittsburgh	5.3%	2.7%	-2.6%

This early in the season, many of the teams on the above lists are there simply because they’ve met expectations. In our preseason projections, we had New England, Green Bay, and Baltimore as the top three teams. Though the order is jumbled, those are still our top three in the beta ratings used for these projections. Their rankings haven’t changed, but our confidence in their rankings has, and so their Super Bowl win odds have gone up.

On the other half of the table, Miami and Indy were simply bad calls on our part (we didn’t realize how severe Manning’s injury was until too late). San Diego and Pittsburgh have struggled on their way to 2-1, and Atlanta must be unhappy to be sitting at 1-2.