NFL Playoff Time! A Menu Of Our Playoff Predictions & Coverage Notes from the Sports Nerds

NFL Playoff Time! A Menu Of Our Playoff Predictions & Coverage

2 comments - NFL - posted by Matt Woods on January 5, 2013

The NFL regular season has come to an end, 20 teams have been sent home and seven coaches have been fired. It’s now playoff time in the NFL, and as the Wild Card round kicks off, we wanted to break down all of the playoff related predictions and contest advice we have available on the site. Some of this information is free and open to all, but most is available as part of our new premium packages.

Algorithmic NFL Playoffs Betting Picks

Playable NFL spread picks (2-star or better) from our computer models are 68-56-4 (54.8%, +5.8 units) so far this season, and playable NFL totals picks are 54-31-4 (63.5%, +18.1 units). For the Wild Card round, as of Saturday morning, our models see three of the eight available spread and totals bets as playable. All of our 2012 NFL playoff betting picks including the Super Bowl are available to our All Star level subscribers.

Game Winner and Upset Picks

Our game winner picks and win odds for all the 2012 NFL playoff games are available for free to all users. This weekend, our models see an 80% chance for at least one upset, and about a 40% chance for at least two; upset odds vary from around 20% to 40% depending on the game.

Round By Round Playoff Survival Odds

Premium subscribers can view our round-by-round playoff survival odds for all 2012 playoff teams. These can be very helpful for evaluating value for playoff futures bets or contests. For example, the Texans are favored to make it past the Wild Card round, but their odds to win two games and make the conference championship game are a lot lower than most people probably think — only around 12%.

Playoff Pick’em Analysis

Based on round-by-round team survival odds and some game-theory inspired strategy, we’re weighing in on how to optimize your odds to win bracket-style playoff predictions contests. There are several angles to think about in order to determine the best approach, including the payout structure of your pool, the number of entrants, and whether you want to maximize your odds to win a piece of the pot or take first place. The answer to those question could mean picking either the Patriots, Broncos, or another team entirely as your Super Bowl champ. See our thoughts and ask us questions in the NFL forum.

Playoff Survivor Advice

Our NFL Survivor analysis rolls into the playoffs, although now as a part of our premium NFL forums. Whether you’re in a playoff survivor pool that’s starting fresh or an ongoing pool that’s carried over from the regular season, we’ll be analyzing every team in every round from a survivor standpoint, and answering all of your questions. For the Wild Card round, the main decision is whether to even consider the Packers, the most popular playoff Survivor pick of the round, and if not, how to plot out a solid strategy for every round from the very beginning.

NFL Playoff Prop & Futures Bet Analysis

We’ve taken a look at some interesting playoff props and futures bets we’ve seen pop up at some of the major offshore sports books, and analyzed them for value (playoff prop analysis, playoff futures analysis). If you have a prop or future you’re considering, we’d be interested to hear about it in our subscriber forums. So far we’ve looked at things like:

Will the Super Bowl winner be from the AFC or the NFC?
What are the odds of various Super Bowl matchups?
Will a wild card team win the Super Bowl? Or even just play in it?
What are the odds specific teams get eliminated in specific rounds?

To get access to all of our NFL playoffs predictions and analysis, you can subscribe here.

eriksuperman

I just can’t
bet against my Broncos this year! Manning has done such a good job of
preparing for teams week in and week out, and I expect the same from him this
week, against the Ravens. Unfortunately, i won’t be able to watch the
games live, as my boss at DISH called me in to work extra time. I have
the DISH Hopper set up, however, and it will get everything I need. The
Hopper can store up to 2,000 hours on the hard drive, and can record up to 6
live HD programs at once. It’s perfect for a guy like me, with a lot of
interests. I can get all my regular shows recorded weekly, and on the
weekends I’ve been able to record and record as many games as I wanted.
This week should be a test for the Broncos, but just another team that will let
the broncos fine-tune on their way to the super Bowl.
Alan Mcconnell

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