- - NFL - posted by David Hess on September 5, 2012
Now that the NFL opening kickoff is nearly upon us, here are some of the highlights of our 2012 NFL preseason rankings. Below you’ll find the …
… Toughest schedules.
… Easiest schedules.
… Most improved.
… Biggest declines.
… Most likely undefeated.
… Most likely winless.
… Highest NFL division win odds.
… Playoff bubble teams.
All the ratings below are expressed in “points above average”. It’s essentially how much we expect the team to win (or lose) by, if they play a perfectly average opponent at a neutral site.
To give you an idea of the typical range, the New England Patriots last year finished the year at +9.5, while the St. Louis Rams were the worst at -10.1. Our preseason ratings usually have a slightly narrower range, simply because the best ratings in real life will be a combination of good skill and good luck, and we’re only predicting the skill portion, not the luck.
Many of the odds below can be found on our NFL season projections page, which updates daily throughout the season, or on individual team projections pages — like this New York Giants projections page.
2012 Super Bowl Favorites
| Team | Team Rank | SOS Rank | Proj Record | Super Bowl Win % |
| New England | 1 | 27 | 12.6 - 3.4 | 26% |
| New Orleans | 3 | 25 | 10.7 - 5.3 | 10% |
| Green Bay | 5 | 32 | 11.0 - 5.0 | 10% |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 17 | 10.5 - 5.5 | 10% |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 11 | 10.4 - 5.6 | 8% |
| Baltimore | 6 | 1 | 9.6 - 6.4 | 6% |
| Detroit | 8 | 29 | 9.7 - 6.3 | 5% |
Toughest 2012 NFL Schedule
The Strength Of Schedule (SOS) values below show the average preseason rating of a team’s opponents.
| SOS rank | Team | SOS |
| 1 | Baltimore | 1.2 |
| 2 | Cleveland | 1.2 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 0.8 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 0.7 |
| 5 | Denver | 0.6 |
| 6 | Dallas | 0.6 |
| 7 | Washington | 0.6 |
Easiest 2012 NFL Schedule
| SOS rank | Team | SOS |
| 32 | Green Bay | -1.3 |
| 31 | Minnesota | -1.3 |
| 30 | Chicago | -1.2 |
| 29 | Detroit | -1.1 |
| 28 | Seattle | -0.9 |
Most Improved In 2012
| 2012 Rank | 2011 Rank | Rank Change | Team | 2012 Rating | 2011 Rating | Rating Change |
| 7 | 25 | 18 | Denver | 2.9 | -4.1 | 7.0 |
| 20 | 30 | 10 | Indianapolis | -2.1 | -6.6 | 4.5 |
| 30 | 31 | 1 | Tampa Bay | -4.0 | -8.4 | 4.4 |
| 21 | 28 | 7 | Cleveland | -2.1 | -5.6 | 3.5 |
| 32 | 32 | 0 | St. Louis | -7.0 | -10.2 | 3.2 |
| 25 | 29 | 4 | Kansas City | -3.3 | -5.6 | 2.3 |
| 4 | 9 | 5 | Philadelphia | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
Biggest Declines In 2012
| 2012 Rank | 2011 Rank | Rank Change | Team | 2012 Rating | 2011 Rating | Rating Change |
| 18 | 6 | -12 | San Francisco | -1.5 | 4.1 | -5.6 |
| 24 | 17 | -7 | Chicago | -3.1 | 0.5 | -3.6 |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | New Orleans | 5.6 | 8.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Green Bay | 5.3 | 8.4 | -3.1 |
| 19 | 15 | -4 | Dallas | -2.1 | 0.8 | -2.9 |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Houston | 1.1 | 3.6 | -2.5 |
| 29 | 21 | -8 | Carolina | -3.7 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
| 31 | 23 | -8 | Jacksonville | -5.7 | -3.7 | -2.0 |
Most Likely Undefeated NFL Teams
| Team | Team Rank | SOS Rank | Proj Record | Undefeated% |
| New England | 1 | 27 | 12.6 - 3.4 | 4.0% |
| Green Bay | 5 | 32 | 11.0 - 5.0 | 0.9% |
| New Orleans | 3 | 25 | 10.7 - 5.3 | 0.7% |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 11 | 10.4 - 5.6 | 0.6% |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 17 | 10.5 - 5.5 | 0.5% |
Least Likely To Win A Single NFL Game
| Team | Team Rank | SOS Rank | Proj Record | Winless% |
| St. Louis | 32 | 26 | 5.1 - 10.9 | 0.8% |
| Jacksonville | 31 | 10 | 5.2 - 10.8 | 0.7% |
| Washington | 28 | 7 | 6.1 - 9.9 | 0.3% |
| Kansas City | 25 | 9 | 6.2 - 9.8 | 0.3% |
| Carolina | 29 | 16 | 6.3 - 9.7 | 0.2% |
| Tampa Bay | 30 | 21 | 6.2 - 9.8 | 0.2% |
| Cleveland | 21 | 2 | 6.5 - 9.5 | 0.2% |
| Arizona | 26 | 22 | 6.6 - 9.4 | 0.2% |
Biggest NFL Division Favorites
| Team | Team Rank | Proj Record | Win Division % |
| New England | 1 | 12.6 - 3.4 | 71.4% |
| New Orleans | 3 | 10.7 - 5.3 | 60.3% |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 10.5 - 5.5 | 57.3% |
| Green Bay | 5 | 11.0 - 5.0 | 53.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 10.4 - 5.6 | 46.3% |
| Houston | 13 | 8.4 - 7.6 | 42.3% |
| Denver | 7 | 9.1 - 6.9 | 40.0% |
| San Francisco | 18 | 7.5 - 8.5 | 39.8% |
NFL Playoff Bubble Teams (Playoff Odds Closest to 50%)
| Team | Team Rank | SOS Rank | Proj Record | Playoff % |
| Baltimore | 6 | 1 | 9.6 - 6.4 | 55% |
| Denver | 7 | 5 | 9.1 - 6.9 | 51% |
| Houston | 13 | 13 | 8.4 - 7.6 | 48% |
| New York Giants | 9 | 4 | 8.8 - 7.2 | 46% |
| Atlanta | 12 | 23 | 8.7 - 7.3 | 46% |
| San Diego | 11 | 15 | 8.6 - 7.4 | 45% |
| San Francisco | 18 | 24 | 7.5 - 8.5 | 45% |
