2012 NFL Futures: Value Picks For Regular Season Win Total Over-Unders
- 2 comments - NFL - posted by David Hess on September 2, 2012
Now that our final 2012 NFL projected standings are out, we can compare them with the offshore futures markets, and see if there are any good values to be found.
This post will take a look at team regular season win totals from Pinnacle Sports, and show you when our projections imply that a bet on the Over or Under has positive value. We did the same thing last season, and our picks went 15-9, and would have returned a healthy 30% ROI. Hopefully this year we’ll see similar success.
The table below lists the teams, their Pinnacle win total lines, and the payout odds associated with betting the Over or Under (lines were recorded on the afternoon of September 2nd, 2012). It also shows our average win forecast for each team, and how that forecast translates into Over, Under, and Push probabilities. Finally, we show which side of the lines our projections imply have value, and what the projected return on investment (ROI) would be for any of those bets.
Team Wins O/U Over Line Under Line TR Proj Over% Push% Under% TR Side ROI
Miami 7.5 +280 -345 8.4 63% -- 37% Over 139%
Houston 10 -190 +161 8.4 21% 13% 66% Under 99%
Dallas 8.5 -161 +137 6.8 26% -- 74% Under 75%
Cleveland 5.5 +154 -181 6.5 65% -- 35% Over 65%
Carolina 7.5 -155 +132 6.3 32% -- 68% Under 57%
New Orleans 10 +150 -176 10.7 53% 15% 32% Over 56%
Seattle 7 -232 +194 6.8 41% 15% 44% Under 53%
Indianapolis 5.5 +105 -123 7.1 74% -- 26% Over 52%
San Francisco 10 +125 -146 7.5 12% 10% 78% Under 46%
NY Jets 8.5 +158 -186 8.9 56% -- 44% Over 44%
Detroit 9.5 +164 -194 9.7 53% -- 47% Over 39%
Minnesota 6 -108 -108 7.3 62% 14% 25% Over 38%
Chicago 9.5 +126 -147 7.1 18% -- 82% Under 37%
Kansas City 8 +123 -147 6.2 20% 12% 67% Under 29%
Philadelphia 10 +119 -139 10.5 50% 15% 35% Over 28%
New England 12 +108 -126 12.6 51% 17% 32% Over 27%
Buffalo 7.5 -220 +185 7.9 56% -- 44% Under 27%
St. Louis 6 -115 -101 5.1 31% 15% 54% Under 26%
Atlanta 9 -121 +104 8.7 38% 15% 47% Under 13%
Baltimore 10 +171 -202 9.6 35% 15% 50% Over 13%
San Diego 9 +153 -180 8.6 37% 15% 48% Over 10%
Arizona 7 +155 -183 6.6 36% 15% 48% Over 9%
Jacksonville 5.5 -116 -101 5.2 46% -- 54% Under 8%
Washington 6.5 -110 -106 6.1 45% -- 55% Under 7%
Oakland 7 -114 -102 6.8 39% 15% 46% Under 6%
Pittsburgh 10 -118 +101 10.4 48% 15% 37% Over 4%
Tennessee 7 -158 +135 7.3 48% 15% 37% Under 3%
Green Bay 12 +185 -220 11.0 25% 16% 59% Under 2%
Denver 8.5 -167 +142 9.1 58% -- 42% Under 1%
NY Giants 9.5 +143 -168 8.8 40% -- 60% -- --
Cincinnati 8.5 +180 -214 7.5 36% -- 64% -- --
Tampa Bay 6 -136 +116 6.2 47% 15% 38% -- --
There’s a pretty large margin of error on these projections, so for teams where our projections see less value, it may be prudent to dial back expectations, and lay off. Last season we used a cut off of 5%: any projected ROI under 5% was officially a “LAY OFF”.
We decided to go ahead and show you those under-5% picks this season, simply because we feel giving you more info is nearly always a good thing. Keep in mind, however, that keeping your money tied up all season in a bet that’s got a near-zero edge may not be an optimal investment strategy.
What team win total Over or Unders do you think look like good bets? Do you disagree with any of our picks above? Let us know in the comments.
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Rich
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http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess
